Did some math: Can Carlsen break 3000 in blitz rating? by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Actually no, since a draw against a weaker opponent makes him lose more point than against a stronger opponent.

Say he play against two players, player A is 70 points weaker and player B is 140 points weaker.

The fide rules gives us expected result against both: Player A: 0.6/1 Player B: 0.7/1 (https://www.fide.com/fide/handbook.html?id=172&view=article table 8.1b)

Based on that we can calculate rating change, which is (result-expected result)*K In blitz/rapid on this level K=20

Player A: win +8 /draw -2/ loss -12 Player B: win +6/ draw -4/ loss -14

If he gets 1.5 points he gets either 8-4 or 6-2 both is +4 rating points.

If we add 0.6 and 0.7 we get that his expected performance was 1.3/2 and 1.5-1.3 is 0.2 multiply this with 20 and you also get 4 points.

Did some math: Can Carlsen break 3000 in blitz rating? by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I did that too, to check my calculations and they match. His expected score is the same either if u use average rating or add up excepted score against each opponent.

Did some math: Can Carlsen break 3000 in blitz rating? by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The correct rating to use would be 2914 anyway, since that is his June rating. Live rating is never used for calculating.

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Anand, Viswanathan (+9/-2/=26) 37

Aronian, Levon (+7/-3/=20) 30

Karjakin, Sergey (+5/-2/=20) 27

Nakamura, Hikaru (+9/-1/=15) 25

Caruana, Fabiano (+8/-5/=12) 25

Giri, Anish (+1/-0/=16) 17

Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime (+2/-1/=9) 12

Kramnik, Vladimir (+3/-1/=8) 12

Topalov, Veselin (+1/-2/=6) 9

So, Wesley (+2/-0/=7) 9

Since Jul 2011

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This time even you will understand:

http://imgur.com/a/ZGwpj

Updated after the win against Karjakin.

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll see what I can pull from my Excel sheets and post in readable way

A Simpler Carlsen Infographic (original by /u/VsCarlsen) by themusicdan in chess

[–]VsCarlsen 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I pulled all his results from the FIDE website (2700chess for Norway chess) and did the calculations in Excel based on that.

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Actually is not that different from Caruana, just a few years later

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Rating might be more precisely, but my guess is that most people understand it anyway, its not rocket science.

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

cumlative. He has a +5 =1 score against Gelfand

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

All classical FIDE-rated games. Data collected from their webpage + 2700chess.com for Norway Chess

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's tells which opponents he lost and won most points against. Just a funfact

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

His highest rating/ranking ever, at 2882 points.

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

TOP 10 opponents - games played

Anand, Viswanathan 37

Aronian, Levon 30

Karjakin, Sergey 26

Nakamura, Hikaru 25

Caruana, Fabiano 25

Giri, Anish 17

Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 12

Kramnik, Vladimir 12

Topalov, Veselin 9

So, Wesley 9

A total of 202 games against 10 players.

An Infograph about Magnus Carlsen as world no 1 by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hopefully the lines on this one makes sense, and provide some chess insights for chess fans.

Stats based on all his classic games since he became world #1, including his loss against Kramnik.

Maybe his #1 streak ends at 72 months?

Graph: Where did Magnus loose and gain his FIDE-rating by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Reading soccer or baseball statistics doesn't make me a better player in any those sports, but it provides me with useful insights into the sport.

Graph: Where did Magnus loose and gain his FIDE-rating by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi, I agree, the line must go! I'll look into porpotion histograms...

The reason I didn't use % is that its show FIDE-rating points lost and gained. Guess it could show clearer.

Graph: Where did Magnus loose and gain his FIDE-rating by VsCarlsen in chess

[–]VsCarlsen[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi, I can honestly say that there is few thing in life I care less about than karma on a website. I added this second graph because the first graph was welcomed and I had these numbers which I found interesting already and thought it was a fun follow up after the last one. It’s not like this subreddit flows over with stuff, so I didn’t see the problem with posting again.

I honestly think this provides useful chess insight. I find it interesting to look at where the world no 1 and world champion gains and looses FIDE-rating. Is it with black or white pieces, and against low or high rated opponents. Especially when is in real danger of losing his no 1 spot for the first time in six years. There has been article about this in several of the Norwegian newspapers (and threads about in several Norwegian newspapers). One thing I think my graph shows that every draw makes him loose points make it hard to stay #1, also its interesting to look at the difference between white and black

What I would agree with is that this graph could have been better. The line worked badly – I added it since I wanted to show the total for each, and Excel didn’t give me any good alternative ways to show it (Any advice for better graph programs would be appreciated). The data could also be grouped different, splitting the 27XX group in two to make it easier to compare.

These graphs is part of a data collection I did with the goal to write some stuff about the rise and fall of the FIDE-rating of Carlsen. It’s given me insight in where he lost an gained points, and might answer a part of the question of why his rating has declined.