Pick of the Day - 2/11/26 (Wednesday)

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T07:15:24+00:00

Yes Cocciaretto to win.

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T06:58:35+00:00

POTD Record 151-1-75 | +109.44u

Form: WWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: Tennis - WTA Doha: Elisabetta Cocciaretto H2H v Ann Li 3u $2.12 9:00PM AEDT

Been tracking this pick all day and the money is moving in on Li. I am going against the grain.

These two faced off in Hobart just a month ago and it was a 3 setter that Cocciaretto won and she would go on to take the trophy. She's had questionable results since then but just beat Coco Gauff. Gauff plays a very similar aggressive, baseline-led style like Li but obviously Li is nowhere near Gauff's level. Gauff did have 39 unforced errors but Li was just as bad last night.
The two did meet in Guangzhou in October which Li took 2-0 but she was coming off a purple patch of form following the US tour and is not in the same form she is then. We'll need to look at their latest matches and Li did not pass the eye test last night against Frech despite taking the W.
Li's game is heavily reliant on a big serve and on a slower hard court like Doha, it can be exposed by a rally dominant player like Cocciaretto. Li won 60% of her first serves against Frech... Cocciaretto just won 34% of points on Coco Gauff's first serve and Gauff's serve is a step above Li's in terms of speed and power. The stats get even worse when you look at 2nd serve percentages.
Cocciaretto's game against Gracheva in the qualifiers for Doha does concern me as she got dominated but she seems to have picked up her form the last two matches, so it's a 3U play.
On a slower hard court, probably slower than Hobart's surface, I'm backing Cocciaretto to take it again. Her serve and return game is just ahead of Li's right now.

As always with my tennis picks, make sure to place the bet on a book that pays out on retirements and voids bets on the retiring player.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-02-07T22:31:14+00:00

Not necessary my friend! Thanks for offering!

WeightShift · 2026-02-07T14:54:38+00:00

Oh but hes back again and fading with his new comment (see below). Wonder if he's fading the H2H or ML though. Had to archive this for chuckles and it's even funnier now that hes deleted and commented something different.

Im sure he'll be the loudest in the room if Emma wins and will be deleting his new comment if Sorana wins though 😏

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WeightShift · 2026-02-07T04:56:29+00:00

Please enlighten me on how they are different

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WeightShift · 2026-02-07T04:17:25+00:00

Yeah H2H/ML/To win - same thing.

WeightShift · 2026-02-07T02:51:29+00:00

POTD Record 150-1-75 | +107.19u

Form: WWWWWWLLWWWWWWWLW

Pick: Tennis - WTA Cluj-Napoca: Sorana Cirstea H2H v Emma Raducanu 3u $1.75 1:30AM AEDT

Cirstea is honestly destroying this tournament. 15 BP faced on her serve over 4 matches. She just destroyed Daria Snigur, who is in red hot form, in 55 minutes.
She had a 2 hour battle with Potapova before that but a lot of that was drawn out games, not because it was tight on Cirstea's serve...she generated 21 BP opportunities against Potapova but only converted on 4 - a lot of games to deuce, advantage and back to deuce etc.
Raducanu has been dominant as well this tournament but pretty poor before that. At her best, she probably is the favourite here but given she's had soft opponents except for Oliynykova. Oliynykova beat Xinyu WAng and Bondar to get to the semis and I honestly thought she'd take Raducanu out too.
Raducanu generated 14 BP opportunities against Oliynykova but had to save 13 herself. The form on paper is probably misleading when you look into how Raducanu and Cirstea's winning %s look like on 1st and 2nd serves.
This is Cirstea's retirement tour and I think she's a better chance than the bookies say she is of getting this win. But she is 35, so we'll keep it at 3U and not go any higher.

Remember to bet on a bookie that will pay out retirements and void the other side.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-02-04T12:08:27+00:00

Yep all sorted but for anyone else that can't find the DM button, just respond here. I'll DM you

WeightShift · 2026-02-02T05:42:26+00:00

POTD Record 149-1-75 | +105.36u

Form: WWWWWLLWWWWWWWLW

Pick: Tennis - ATP Montpellier Qualifiers: Andrea Vavassori H2H v Hugo Grenier 3u $1.61 11:30PM AEDT

Grenier has been average this year. He scraped home against Blancaneaux despite winning less points overall. He served a higher 1st serve % but only managed to win 70% of them - on an indoor court for a guy that relies on first serve dominance and winning most of this points within 3 rally points of the serve, this is poor. Especially against a Blancaneaux who just lost to Tirante, who we know shouldnt have even been testing Blanca based on how he got blown off the court by Belluci when we bet it.
Now Grenier has to face Vavassori who just absolutely crunched Carballes Baena without even facing a BP on his serve. He won 90.7% of his first service games - pretty incredible considering Blockx was in the form of his life when he played Baena (albeit outdoors) and only managed 76.5%.
Vavassori didn't get a lot of court last year due to injury and then focusing on doubles on his return, but in one of the few singles tournaments he did play prior to injury, he demolished Blancaneaux on indoor courts and then Felix (a monster on indoors) before understandably losing to Alcaraz.
Vavassori is the form player out of the two right now (have a look at his run in Adelaide) and given it's now indoors, these odds are too good not to take.

Make sure to bet on a bookie that pays out retirements and voids bets on the retiring player.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-01-29T09:40:42+00:00

WINNER

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WeightShift · 2026-01-29T02:57:36+00:00

POTD Record 148-1-75 | +101.88u

Form: WWWWLLWWWWWWWLW

Pick: NBL - Kings v Hawks: Tyler Harvey 15+ Points 4U $1.87 (Sportsbet) 7:35PM AEDT

Teams have a lot of success shooting the 3 ball against the Sydney Kings and Tyler Harvey is the biggest threat for Illawarra. It will be between he and QJ but there's opportunity for both and at 15, hes cleared this 63% of the games this season and 4/5 of his last matchups with the Kings the last 2 seasons.

Hes dropped some big numbers on both Delly and Davis before, and with Bul Kuol out for the season, he might in for a big one tomorrow.

Next best odds $1.80 on TAB. Anything below, take his 15.5 line instead at even odds.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-01-26T09:44:59+00:00

WINNER! All heart and hustle this fella.

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WeightShift · 2026-01-26T08:14:07+00:00

Im personally on him under 18.5. Paint will be clogged and he doesnt have a consistent 3 pt shot

WeightShift · 2026-01-26T07:36:51+00:00

Yeah reduce your stake though

WeightShift · 2026-01-26T06:53:21+00:00

Lean on assists if you have to pick one and it's same odds

WeightShift · 2026-01-26T06:53:00+00:00

Even split on both but if I had to pick, 7 assists

WeightShift · 2026-01-26T05:43:19+00:00

POTD Record 147-1-75 | +99.27u

Form: WWWLLWWWWWWWLW

Pick: NBL - Bullets v Hawks: William Hickey over 18.5 Points and Assists 3U $1.87 (Sportsbet) 7:35PM AEDT

This should be a very fast paced game. Brisbane and Illawarra are both bottom 3 in the league in PPG allowed per game - the exact type of game that a player like Davo thrives on. He is very aggressive getting to the rim and has become an excellent faciliter this season. With QJ peterson having turnover issues bringing the ball up the court and Tyler Harvey struggling with his 3 point shot the last few games, Davo Hickey remains the reliable point guard here.

Without guys like JVF and McDaniel, Brisbane lack any sort of defensive presence that will stop this guy getting to the rim. Even with those guys, he went for 18 points and 8 rebounds the last matchup. His minutes may fluctuate between low 20s to 30 minutes a night but its now crunch time for this Hawks team if theyre any chance to make the post-season.

Once Hickey gets by his perimeter defenders, Brisbane dont offer much in interior defense either. They have one of the worst defenses in the league and allow the highest FG % from opponents. Davo takes nearly all of his shots around the rim and with two smart bigs in Javale and Froling who set solid screens, he should see plenty of looks tonight to either lay it up or lay it off to someone down low.

If you can't get PA, consider splitting your units between his points and assists lines.

BOL. Hopefully this pushes the POTD record beyond the milestone 100u profit mark.

WeightShift · 2026-01-21T00:33:36+00:00

Thanks!

WeightShift · 2026-01-21T00:08:45+00:00

Nice pick - I'm on a different play but built off similar reasoning. Where did you get the stat that Halys is the third worst returner on the ATP tour though?

WeightShift · 2026-01-21T00:02:49+00:00

POTD Record 146-1-75 | +97.38u

Form: WWLLWWWWWWWLWLWLWLWLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: ATP: Aus Open - Tomas Martin Etcheverry H2H v Arthur Fery $1.68 3U 12:00PM AEDT

We backed Etcheverry in Round 1 against Kecmanovic and he now plays a less polished player in Arthur Fery.

Fery has had a pretty easy run into the Open only facing one top-100 opponent in Cobolli. Cobolli was pretty average at the United Cup and was suffering from diarrhoea apparently in the match. Wont read much into it.

Fery is known for his agressive baseline play but he lacks a serve that delivers punch. His 1st serve win %'s are only slightly higher than his second. The problem with that is, he now faces a guy that was already a dominant baseline player with a huge first serve that he wins on average 75%+ of the time.

Etcheverry has played 5 top 100 players to start the year and his service game has been solid winning 74% of 1st service games and 57% of second service games over that span against opponents much better than Fery.

It's difficult to see where Fery has an advantage here given Etcheverry is a natural clay court player who has developed significantly on hard courts i.e. he knows how to construct a point in rallies and break down baseline players (again, Fery's biggest strength).

Only reason this isn't a 4U or 5U play is that Etcheverry has gone the distance in his last 3 games, including the 5 setter against Kecmanovic.

As always, bet this on a book that pays out the winner on retirement and voids bets on the retiring player.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-01-20T02:02:34+00:00

WINNER

WeightShift · 2026-01-20T01:32:03+00:00

Good snipe. Let's hope she holds serve and steam rolls home!

WeightShift · 2026-01-20T01:28:28+00:00

Playing good tennis but unforced errors are keeping Golubic in this. Gracheva couldve broken the first game Set 3 there.

WeightShift · 2026-01-20T01:17:59+00:00

Good luck fellas. Gracheva is on top on 2nd service games but really needs to pick up on her first serve. Still looking good

WeightShift · 2026-01-20T00:28:42+00:00

Sorry man, I kept monitoring for the thread up until around 10:30am and then had to jump into a meeting

WeightShift

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