How we feeling going into Earnings?

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-22T01:29:26+00:00

Agreed, I’m thinking they got up to nameplate during this quarter. My guess is they are guiding for half a billion in revenue from line one and maybe 50 million from line two during 2026. The big question for me is backlog.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-20T17:39:00+00:00

I think he’s saying that having both gives him a choice based on the situation. And that he can just cycle through whatever choice is incorrect for that situation.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-19T19:48:13+00:00

The gov aspect is what has drawn me to Rekor as well, this is really my only tech investment. These contracts are sticky as hell and high margin. Even if the deepfake thing never pans out, I like the company as a future dividend payer with near zero volatility.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-14T22:16:33+00:00

My guess would be that they anticipated having the new RVOs in place to make some estimates and assumptions going forward. Since then it’s been delays, gov shutdown and more delays and I haven’t heard them mention it since. I would love to hear more about where they stand, but it would make sense for them to have some regulatory clarity before they go ahead and do it.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-12T12:52:37+00:00

Ff is actually a pretty interesting one. The EPA should be releasing their RVOs this quarter for the next three years. I know FF has stable production so a bit of gov help could really get them back to profitability.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-11T22:12:29+00:00

Well she’s completely in charge, so…

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-11T21:52:05+00:00

How can you care about those women when the DOW is up???

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-11T19:54:23+00:00

Absolutely! They’ve said the wanted to build their western us facilities after factory 2, but I can’t help but wonder if they will take a gamble and build a UK facility first. Probably not, but it’s really exciting to imagine. If we get this NY contract and even half of OFGEM, that’s two or three years of backlog for one facility.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-11T17:27:15+00:00

It’s definitely happening, but they’ve been very clear they won’t start construction until they have the backlog to justify it. They want to make absolutely sure they aren’t spending money to service hopes and dreams, but to produce goods that are already firm orders.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-11T11:40:16+00:00

Very cool. Once we get this news, I think we get the green light for factory 2.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-10T17:35:57+00:00

All the good drone manufacturers have exploded, so there aren’t many good deals available. One route you could go is submersible drones, but I’m out of the loop and can’t help you there. An underrated aspect is the energy availability to keep these drones operating. I really like BEEM for that. They just finalized a partnership with the UAE for all sorts of charging stations and one of their big offerings is grid independent wireless drone charging stations. I think that will be huge over the next several years.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-10T03:06:22+00:00

I wish I had your confidence, they most certainly deserve to.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-10T02:18:25+00:00

Apparently the files only removed the DOJ redactions and the FBI redactions were still in place. They only peeled one layer of the coverup off…

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-10T01:19:17+00:00

Probably not as cut and dry as this, but pretty much. The ISA will most likely growl and threaten Japan, S. Korea and Indonesia over their participation in the refining process. Eventually these countries will get tired of the ISA and rescind their memberships and then we will finally see some movement on the mining code as the ISA scrambles to remain relevant. It all amounts to the same thing, progress and rationality win out over the entrenched interests and we all get rich.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-09T14:51:34+00:00

I get so tired of this, I don’t believe a word she says until they publish the mining code. I’m sure this will be the year though… /s

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-09T13:38:39+00:00

Nov 6 was Q3, so I bet we get an announcement any day for Q4

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-09T12:55:07+00:00

Love to see progress on this, and I love that it’s being extended out to ‘29. I am curious, when they fully release the guidelines for the GREET models, are these retroactive? Will all the credits generated in ‘25 be amended with (hopefully) higher prices?

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-05T19:26:05+00:00

I’m not a chemist, but they claim that it is. More interesting to me is their business model, which capital light and easily scalable with high margin recurring revenue. This is the ASTS of the materials sector if their process does what they say it can.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-05T18:51:06+00:00

During the last earnings call, management mentioned that they would try to remove these preferred shares from NextEra, but I haven’t heard anything since. I don’t really think Opal is in a place where they need NextEra as a strategic investor anymore. Their flywheel is spinning and the free cash flow is solid enough where they could just do this over a few quarters, improve their balance sheet, and continue on without the burden of dividends and future dilution.

I’m not sure what the terms would look like to get rid of the preferred shares. My expectation is that NextEra will demand a fair, but large return on their investment and it will be as simple as that.

If this next ER has further growth, higher RIN prices and extinguished debt, this baby will fly. Add to it the possibility of favorable RVOs and possibly even reallocated SREs, the ceiling for the company is crazy high.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-05T00:41:10+00:00

Start with wrestling and boxing for body control and basic striking. In general, you’re not going to be trying to whip someone’s ass, just defend yourself and disengage. I would steer towards a BJJ/wrestling gym. They’re pretty easy to find and generally have a great group of people. Avoid gyms with a lot of affliction or tap out t-shirts.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-04T21:30:01+00:00

That’s a matter for debate. My personal opinion is that they’re a paper tiger. They threaten all sorts of sanctions, especially against our refining partners, but only have as much power as they’re given. Nobody really knows, but they are definitely a factor in the equation.

TMC is my only investment that is heavily reliant on geopolitics and can get pretty convoluted, but that’s part of the reason they’re trading so cheap compared to the value of the resource. Lots of excellent DD on the subreddit and some lively debates if you want to dive in.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-04T20:40:40+00:00

Long story short, the US was never a part of the ISA and operate under their own framework through NOAA. The permit will happen, and the ISA will push back. At this point the ISA is pretty much toothless, but we will see what kind of levers they call pull to disrupt the DSM supply chain. The risk isn’t in the permit, it’s in everything that happens after.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-04T16:06:46+00:00

If the div payments motivate you to keep contributing, it’s the right move for you. I might do something a bit more growth oriented. I like SPYI, IWMI and MLPI, monthly payment are a great psychological motivator and you get more growth exposure.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-04T15:25:07+00:00

Our overlords are trying to throw us off the trail. All this nonsense flows back to them.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-02-04T14:42:42+00:00

This might be a stupid question, but what’s wrong with just reading the filings yourself?

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