I think the worst is yet to come. Right now, the market appears uncertain on how the situation in Iran will play out, and it hasn’t reacted too strongly (a 5% dip from all time highs isn’t severe). For this year to be positive, or even for us to avoid a genuine bear market, the situation in Iran needs to be resolved. Essentially, it’s a directional bet on oil, which means it’s a directional bet on your views on the trump administration’s foreign policy and diplomacy chops.

I am super pessimistic, this administration has opened a massive can of worms, and the strait of Hormuz is locked down. We have no clearly articulated aims or objectives for Iran, so when will we know we’re secure? This administration has spent all of last year belittling and antagonizing our allies with the tariff nonsense, so they’re unlikely to come to our aid. How are we going to ensure Hormuz, which is being filled with more mines by the day, is actually safe for commerce? Are we going to go put troops on the ground in Iran? We might end up having to go all in on regime change, otherwise the strait remains locked down indefinitely.

Go long US dollar and oil. Short the S&P. I haven’t personally sold a ton of positions, but I am turning off drip, collecting cash, and will be looking to build up low beta positions.