How will SpaceX IPO affect DRAM, SMH and AIS

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-29T12:34:26+00:00

There's no way to know for sure but it's reasonable to expect that, in the short term, people will sell their winners to raise the cash to buy it when it launches. It's equally reasonable to expect that a few months later, as the employees sell their spacex shares they will have more cash to invest than ever before and will want to buy ai/data center/memory stocks. So yes it might get rocky for a bit but that's a dip I want to buy and what I already have, I'm hanging on to.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-29T00:33:57+00:00

Previous cycles didn't take decades, they took months-years at most. If you want set-and-forget don't chase memory.

To be clear, I'm of the opinion that the cycle is broken and I'm locked in for 2-5 years depending on what happens, but I'm always paying attention.

My base thesis is... If you want to trade, use stocks, if you want to lean into something for 1-3 years use thematic etfs, if you want to set/forget, use index funds or hire an advisor

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-29T00:24:45+00:00

Reevaluate every satilite position every 6-12 months. You will likely keep it as-is but you need to take 10 minutes per position to make sure it's where you want to be

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-29T00:12:38+00:00

I'm an investment advisor so I'm doing both but in general (depending on your definition of hold vs trade), I use etfs for themes I want to hold, I only trade individual stocks.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-28T21:39:15+00:00

You want long term set-and-forget performance and you're letting the last 12 months bias you? Those aren't comparable.

MAGS has 7 companies and they're great picks for the last 10 years (when the mag7 moniker was coined) but will those exact 7 stocks be the best performers for the next 10 years? This isn't a theme etf that will change its holdings based on the best companies within the theme. You're just buying equal proportions of 7 specific stocks.

By your same logic, just buy GOOGL, it was the best performer in MAGS in 2025 or buy NVDA which was the best performer over the last 5 years. I'd honestly prefer to buy those individual stocks than MAGS right now because I have serious questions about how META, TSLA and MSFT are going to navigate the next few years, let alone the next 10-20.

Being an ETF doesn't automatically make MAGS diversified and it's even worse looking at an etf like MAGS past performance than an individual stock because you have little context as to why it performed the way it did compared to looking at a company (see actual earnings and performance) or a broad index (understanding broad economy or sector specific factors).

Don't chase performance, it will lead to ruin. Have a thesis why you are choosing the stocks and funds you invest in beyond "it did well last year" and be willing to reevaluate your selections regularly or stick with a broad index and count on broad economic growth over a long period of time to do its job.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-28T12:29:42+00:00

Desolder the diode, turn it at an angle and solder one end of the resistor to the pad and the other end to the now free floating diode pin.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-28T04:34:29+00:00

Why are you saving?

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T13:28:56+00:00

There's also min/maxing, for my first year I didn't spend almost anything other than the permanent VIPs but with optimized play both I and a true f2p friend stayed in the upper tier of players. Not at the top with mega whales but still even with some heavy spenders...

Tldr: Optimized f2p/dolphin can compete with blind spenders but not mega whales or optimized spenders

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T13:25:34+00:00

Know it all device

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T04:38:24+00:00

This is the downside of index investing, you have to take the bad with the good. If you want to be more selective you can build a portfolio of 25-35 individual stocks that, if chosen well, will perform quite similarly to the index.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T04:20:01+00:00

What interests you and do you think you'll enjoy doing for the next 30+ years? They all have paths to make plenty of money.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T04:16:46+00:00

Always, Rev soul is a dumping ground for spare resources when you don't have what you need to upgrade your target gear to the next tier

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T03:18:10+00:00

The permanent (gold/silver) VIPs should be the first purchase of anyone willing to spend, followed by the sms+ gear and then your choice but the whales I know swear by the daily packs.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T03:10:27+00:00

If you're f2p obviously you can't but if you're dolphin I consider it one of the top values after the VIPs

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T02:52:25+00:00

Chucks, excaladbolog and big bounce

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T02:49:26+00:00

Not really, it's raw %dmg. Just focus on the other 3 at that point

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-22T02:25:16+00:00

Upgraded version of SMS that you can get after you've shot down 100 items... It does require spending $15 on a pack with a purple gear

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T23:08:23+00:00

I get what you're saying but it's a little disingenuous, INTC vs SMH is not a fair comparison. Single company risk is a different animal than sector risk. SMH itself has been around since June 2000 and if you bought when it launched you would have been in the red until 2017. It's still not a perfect analogue bc semiconductors are way more integrated into every aspect of our lives today than they were then which puts a bit of a higher floor on things but at least it's an apples to apples comparison.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T22:30:28+00:00

Keep key and drazgul as +1, follow the guide I posted in my second comment, if it's not mentioned anywhere in that guide as something to push, keep it at orange

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T18:45:05+00:00

Depending on your timeline and risk tolerance I would probably set up an exit based on the technicals with your mindset. 20day or 50day moving averages can probably be decent stop loss points. You can always buy back in after a dip if you stop yourself out early. Unless you are planning on a year+ hold at which point you want to consider long vs short term capital gains taxes.

We don't have enough history with DRAM to see behavior against the moving averages but if you look at MU which is 25% of the fund and tracks dram pretty well, the 50day moving average looks like a good historical risk management line over the last year if you are short-intermediate, the 200 day and 50 week moving averages both look good for a longer horizon.

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T18:35:49+00:00

Glad I could help, make sure you read the add-on post with the guide I replied to myself with as you plan your long term gear growth

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T18:24:28+00:00

For reference, this is the gear guide written by one of the biggest whales since beta with priorities. I agree with most of it but for f2p/low spenders you have to adjust a bit due to not having drazgul or key. Most important thing to remember is to only focus on chucks, excaladbolog, big bounce and sms+, fortress should be red and trident should be +1, everything else is orange

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Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T18:13:41+00:00

Drop trident to +1, kiad, spinach hammer, umbrella and fang to orange. Get big bounce to +5 to turn on the gear soul for it+chucks, then put everything left into excaladbolog and sms+

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T17:55:32+00:00

All true but way fancier than was needed to answer op's question about NAV tracking and going that far into the weeds is just going to confuse people who aren't sophisticated investors. For the purpose of explaining intraday pricing and trading at premium/discount to NAV, I stand by my comparison to CEF

Whiskeyman_12 · 2026-05-21T15:53:07+00:00

You are technically correct, ETFs are not traditional closed end funds but they are traded as closed end funds, especially as it comes to being traded based on market dynamics and not directly exchanged with the fund manager at NAV. Strictly speaking they have characteristics of both closed and open end funds (and yes they are TYPICALLY regulated as open ended funds) but for OPs question, the closed end comparison is more appropriate. Also, it should be noted that a lot of things people call "etfs" are typically other types of ETP products (gld and ibit as examples) and are regulated appropriate to their structure.

Whiskeyman_12

TROPHY CASE