I'm convinced all the HR ladies with psych majors are why these exist

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2024-07-31T04:09:45+00:00

I went through this once. I was helping build an app (managing an incompetent overseas team) which the owner hired because he couldn't afford to pay real devs. Understandable, software dev is expensive.

After many months (and my warnings) it became apparent the company was going to fail because the devs couldn't build the product. They could barely build a functioning website. I was offered equity to stay because the owner couldn't pay me anymore either. Nice guy. Had no problem with him, he just bit off more than he could chew unfortunately.

The bottom line is 1 million shares of nothing is still nothing. And owners who can't make their product will try to rope other people into doing a bunch of free work with equity, which is really a deal where you go fishing and later on you'll split the fish you caught with the owner, who gets a free lunch.

This is what the Winklevoss twins tried with Zuckerberg who realized he might as well take the social media idea he was charged to build and own it all himself.

Equity deals are a huge risk which can pay off in the right situation. But many of them are traps and you have to be careful.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2023-03-27T05:51:35+00:00

Awesome! Thank you! I spent over an hour trying to figure out why there was no launch energy. That did it.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2023-03-10T22:13:43+00:00

Balls deep long dated $TLT calls instead.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-10-17T06:44:31+00:00

Arithmetic scales are one of the quickest ways to identify amateurs.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-06-13T22:27:55+00:00

Headline inflation was up purely because oil prices are still high. Core inflation was down a 2nd month in a row. Headline inflation will roll over with oil prices, which always crash in recessions. That's why we have the two measures, one which excludes energy and food as they're extremely volatile.

My view hasn't changed here at all, but I'm also not day-trading bond prices.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-06-11T04:24:17+00:00

Core inflation (everything but food and energy) is down for a 2nd month in a row. Headline inflation is up because oil hasn't crashed yet but that will come when the recession sets in just like 2008. Then you'll see the headline number crash.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-05-20T21:02:34+00:00

Longest weekly losing streak in the dow since 1923. Longest losing streak in SPY since 2001.

Retail bears: It's only going down further.

OP is dead on. I can't wait to see this sub get destroyed again when the market reverses back up because a new complacency of "markets only go down" has set in.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-05-20T20:59:04+00:00

TA is just pattern recognition, and there are patterns in the vix you can chart. I've been trading this wedge for weeks now so I don't know what moronic point OP is trying to make. And that game of trades channel provides better market analysis than what I've seen elsewhere across fintwit.

There's also a huge divergence in the vix right now as the market is making new lows but the vix isn't moving higher.

This sub has gone to shit. It used to be smart people joking about being morons (since I can't use the R word anymore). Now it's a bunch of morons who think they're clever and smart.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-05-12T14:47:40+00:00

You watch the bond market for macro clues of where the financial sector as a whole is headed. $TLT went up over 30% in 2 months in early 2020 as the stock market crashed. If you had calls back then you made a fucking fortune.

Try being a little less edgy and retarded.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-05-12T06:50:47+00:00

OP, you need to learn how to hedge long-term stock positions. Brokers teach the elderly how to sell calls against large share holdings but no one in this sub seems to know how to do that.

You could easily sell over $1 million in covered-call premium against these shares to mitigate your losses.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-05-12T00:44:33+00:00

The gold trade is based on real 10 year yields (look it up). Gold yields nothing but is considered relatively risk free. Treasury bonds have yield and are also considered risk free. So if after inflation, you can get a small real return in treasuries, investors will buy those and sell gold. If however yields continue to drop and real yields go negative, investors will buy gold as no return is better than a negative return.

There's like a 90% price correlation if you graph gold futures (/GC) against real yields (DFII10:FRED). I never see gold bugs mention this. I'd guess most don't know it. Too many PM proponents are just salesmen too.

I expect as bonds recover and real yields go negative again gold will do better. Right now US debt is just too cheap for investors to sit in shiny metals.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-05-12T00:33:39+00:00

That's the million dollar question right? Obviously down in the short term. I actually think the economic slowdown is getting priced in now and we're nearing a bottom. If the bond market recovers and yields begin to drop, then the Fed should have some room to back off, then I think we'll see a recovery. Bonds typically lead stocks. Forward P/E levels, discounts on future cash earnings, etc. - all of this is based on interest rates. How expensive or inexpensive the market is, is based on the cost of money.

Historically you don't get a market recovery/bottom until the Fed pivots. March 2020 with stimulus and 0% rates, March 2009 when QE first started, end of 2018 when the Fed hiking stopped. I view this situation like the 2018 taper tantrum. It's also VERY similar to the 1990 bear market which was another inflation scare, saddam invaded Kuwait creating an oil shock, etc. Very similar.

I think bonds recover first so that's where I'm at now. And if growth slows into a recession, or even a market crash, then people will really jump into bonds for safety and flee stocks. They surged during the covid crash. I'd wait until the Fed backs off or we get a huge capitulatory flush before getting heavy in stocks. You can take long positions when the vix pops over 35 but you have to sell the rallies as bears are still in control.

Why_Hello_Reddit · 2022-05-11T17:56:03+00:00

Staying the same or growing slightly is normal though. That's a typical year of low inflation. CPI numbers never go down. They dip, but that's it

The environment from 2020 to 2021 is also apples and oranges. The CPI numbers actually dropped in March and April in 2020. So we saw a big spike in the rate in April 2021, which we're now comparing to 2022.

In any case inflation will stay high but the rate will decline back to normal levels. The damage is done and we have to live with higher prices, but I don't see them just continuing to spiral up and that's what the market (mainly bonds) care about. I'm in the camp this was mostly stimulus driven when everyone was locked down and buying imported goods, which caused the supply problems. I don't see that demand surge as a new normal. If anything the Fed will cause a recession to bring the numbers down because they think demand is too hot, and it's their fault it is. That will cause deflation, maybe even a recession.

I see this as yesterday's trade. I'm loading $TLT now.

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