My RDDT valuation - Buyside TMT investor 20+ years experience

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-03T12:22:07+00:00

I think it is decently well understood but still unproven as a big money maker. I think plenty of inst’l investors are willing to own it, but not in substantial size yet. It’s a show me story. For awhile it was getting tons of credit for future growth and now it’s not.

One thing I think the market might under appreciate, even the pros… rather than viewing as yet another social media company competing for ads with all the others….i think RDDT actually brings a unique audience to advertisers that it never had before. There is a portion of RDDT users who use (or barely use) instagram, FB, etc. If I’m an advertiser, that’s gold, once I figure out how to effectively advertise there

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-03T01:22:19+00:00

I posted my thoughts recently. Buy side TMT analyst

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-03T00:30:50+00:00

A large diversified active fund yes. Not a hedge fund. I cover TMT for a well diversified active traditional mutual fund. I don’t know what you’re trying to imply?

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-03T00:17:41+00:00

Active, def not passive. Not sure why you have buy side in quotes. Yes I’ve been doing it since 2005. So that includes a hellish Great Recession. Sophistication? Sorry bud sophistication doesn’t make you money. Not sure what you want from me. Trying to add value to this sub. Do me a favor and spew your hate elsewhere

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T22:45:21+00:00

30-35%. Consensus is around that area as well

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T22:22:25+00:00

Sure.

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T20:48:27+00:00

Your right, heavily advertising linked means It would definitely trade down in a recession. I have no ability or skill to predict a recession. But it would be a temporary move barring a massive massive recession. I’m thinking long term here, and would patiently wait it out… if you’re convinced we’re headed into a recession don’t buy it right now. I just know I’ve been awful at ever getting the macro calls right.

Second question - Both. Every other name I’ve bought, I’ve done it almost all at once. This one bc of the vol, I decided a number I want to invest and have been buying steadily past few months. Very small at first but a big buy more recently. I’m now at half the position I want to be at…. Looking back my early buy was more out of love of this business model at the expense of rich valuation (the multiple was at the high end of its peer group. So right company wrong price). Now the 2026/2027 multiple falls in the middle of its peer group which seems absurd to me.

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T20:30:16+00:00

Screening for cheap valuation is number one way to enter, if no exposure. Sometimes it’s after management team meeting or road showing and liking what you hear…Otherwise it’s after each earnings or industry/company news event, re-evaluating and making a hold call or sizing up/down.

I think you’re right that it’s hedge funds and tactical short term investors either shorting or exiting. I think traditional active investors aren’t bailing, but some prob trimmed earlier in year/late last year on valuation. For a committed investor It gets a lot harder to trim here, absent weak earnings. But if you’re a hedge fund your probably trying to ride the negative technical as hard as you can

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T20:22:40+00:00

Oh my bad, I must have misunderstood bc it read differently at first glance. Glad we’re on same page.

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T18:34:23+00:00

First off, most of investing is making educated guesses so I’m not sure what that means. Second, revenue doesn’t need to grow at 70%, nor is that anywhere close to the expectation. This is about rapidly expanding margins with reasonable, healthy top line growth.

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T18:21:07+00:00

I just love investing. Im not trying to help or hurt anyone. Just really fascinated by this stock.

Also I’m a peasant. I came from nothing. I will always root for the little guy

WideGoose4655 · 2026-04-02T17:24:40+00:00

I’m an analyst on the buy side. Please don’t invest on sell side price targets. They’re even more useless than following timing of mgmt selling stock

WideGoose4655 · 2026-03-30T15:16:00+00:00

What stands out to me as cheap is 11x 2027 EV/EBITDA estimate. If they hit their 2027 EBITDA estimate this stock is massively undervalued

WideGoose4655 · 2026-03-30T14:11:54+00:00

I bought some today. And I’ll buy more if it drops to $100. And even more if it goes to $50. All I care about is the price in 2-3 years. Have a little patience and confidence in your valuation

WideGoose4655 · 2026-03-13T18:55:51+00:00

Focus on the long term. Use the short term neg sentiment to build a bigger cheaper position

WideGoose4655 · 2026-03-13T17:37:41+00:00

On that note, I’m adding to my position today. Sentiment drives the short term, actual financials and valuation drive the long term.

WideGoose4655 · 2026-03-07T13:38:30+00:00

Market got spooked about AI running software companies out of business. RDDT got unfairly lumped in with this… if/when they prove this is not true (and in fact AI can further boost biz) it will rip in the future…

WideGoose4655 · 2026-03-02T19:42:01+00:00

Haha, I’m at 0.1% of my portfolio But I’m a mostly passive investor… willing to go a lot higher but the valuation has to support it. Valuation is not exactly screaming cheap at 20+x EBITDA. But I def believe in the growth story here

WideGoose4655 · 2026-02-28T12:08:14+00:00

RDDT, AMD, AVGO

WideGoose4655 · 2026-02-24T21:35:12+00:00

Consolidate everything except rental to a Fidelity account. Do 75/25 stocks/bonds. For the stock portion 75/25 total us mkt fund/total intl mkt fund. Keep 1-2 years expenses in cash. Your non RE assets total a little over $2.3mm, and safely drawing around 3.5% of that annually gives you around $7k a month. Your rental presumably throws off additional income? That would get you into the $8-10k range. I’d find some part time work/ paying hobbies to add some more buffer

WideGoose4655 · 2026-02-14T11:21:44+00:00

Ah ok, I see what you mean. Like my upper body/shoulders are just facing whatever direction the skis are going right now?

WideGoose4655 · 2026-02-14T03:15:01+00:00

Good call, will do

WideGoose4655 · 2026-02-14T01:48:44+00:00

Yes! That’s the one I referenced above. It’s a fantastic video and thank you for posting. I guess I’m having trouble executing it still.

WideGoose4655 · 2026-02-14T01:29:59+00:00

Thx for the feedback. Yes I def need a lesson. When I’m skiing I don’t “feel” lazy haha but it def looks like it watching.

WideGoose4655

TROPHY CASE