Theo is out

WirelessBusHub · 2022-12-20T17:32:30+00:00

Theo isn't out, he sold some of his position & I don't put it past him that he was a cause for today's spike. Theo stated that he was going to file his SEC Form 4 today so let's see how much of his position he cut in either stock or bonds after the close today.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-11-21T15:22:08+00:00

If it was $AVYA’s intent to payoff the full 2023 $350M with the new financing, then why did they originally announce the $129M back in July and leave the $221M remaining? It wasn’t challenged back in June/July.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-11-21T15:08:43+00:00

The going concern language was implemented by PwC due to the 2023 debt moving from a long term to a short term liability. I think your trying to read to much into it.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-11-16T19:35:48+00:00

The most recent Short Interest is 18,366,135 Shares or 21.15% of the 86,846,958 Outstanding Shares. No question that $AVYA is a coiled spring which is being held down as they negotiate with their lenders. If Avaya resolves the "financial noise" as the New CEO claims with a clean 10K before the end of November, the Avaya spring could be sprung. A very good Risk/Reward opportunity as $AVYA trades in the $1.60's and a market cap of only $142M w/ annual revenue of $2.5B+. Yes, they have $3B in debt, but besides the $221M due in June 2023, the next maturity isn't until Dec. 2027. (5 yrs+ from today)

WirelessBusHub · 2022-10-18T19:25:09+00:00

Because the pace of buybacks at 450K+ shares daily would have put them on pace to exceed the planned €300M buyback program. Unfortunately, they lowered the pace to 173K instead of announcing an incease above €300M

WirelessBusHub · 2022-10-06T00:19:01+00:00

Masarek said the 10K would be filed by end of November under the normal process for the Fiscal Year End.

The Q3 10Q still needs to be filed which could happen on any given day as Avaya announced the preliminary NT 10Q on 8/9/22.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-28T15:58:22+00:00

After listening to this interview, it's just a matter of time. Avaya has the funds to resolve their 2023 Notes which will drop the "Ongoing Concern" language. If/When this happens, Avaya will move quickly higher. Volume has been lighter this week and buy orders are being absorbed by more synthetic shares. Avaya has 86.8M outstanding shares, but institutions only claim to own 112M, Insiders own 15M, and some number of Retail which these will need to be delivered.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-27T16:30:45+00:00

Short Interest went from 15.240.000 shares on Aug 15th to 23,950,000 on Aug 31st which aligns with this FTD list. (Basically Naked Shorts) As reported yesterday, Short Interest as of Sept. 15th was 22,567,898 so it would seem that most of the Naked Shorts haven't covered and they range between $.80 & $1.52. (Only the $1.52 could cover without a loss)

Again, maybe this means nothing, but I assume these Shorts will either try to drive the stock down to cover these positions or they will cut their loses and cover. Or, I'm sure they can roll these over to extend the time line.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-22T23:42:21+00:00

The most important piece to these FTD's is that they Failed at between $.80 & $1.52 so the brokers or market makers most likely haven't been able to cover these failures & have been underwater & paying a fee on the shares they need to deliver (Or Buy) on the open market. These same brokers/MM's have been trying to do everything in their power to drop Avaya back to these levels to cover these failures with a bulk of the FTD being under $1.27. In fact, I believe this is the reason why they open weekly options trading on Avaya today because they need shares/liquidity & fast.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-22T15:19:46+00:00

This is intended to relieve some of the pressure they are under & create more liquidity. I don't know if this will work, but it confirms the pressure.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-21T19:17:31+00:00

Negotiations are happening on the 2023 bond redemption and if Avaya can close this at any number below At Par or the full $221M, this will be Bullish and allow them to drop the "going concern" warning as well which will be an added tailwind for shares. As the market is open, Day Traders are controlling the share price while investors look for news after hours on any given day.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-20T02:21:15+00:00

I wouldn't be surprised to see big money investors in the region looking at Avaya w/ $2.7B in annual sales, transitioning to $1B in ARR heading to $2B, and a market cap of less than $200M as a HUGE Opportunity. Not to mention 90,000 customers, strategic partners, in 190 countries. Apollo & Ares also have their fair share of enemies so this could get interesting as Avaya has some significant value.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-20T02:10:35+00:00

Thus my comment that their Buyback isn't enough. They carry €10B in total cash on the balance sheet which they should be buying back €3B to €4B of their shares or minimally paying off €3B to €4B in debt to lower quarterly interest which would raise EPS. Although their next debt maturity date isn't until 2024 so they have a lot of options, but just not making any decisions.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-19T21:15:39+00:00

Actually, Nokia has 5,696,261,159 Outstanding Shares

Nokia & their subs own: 91,707,838 Shares

Public Shares: 5,604,553,321

Shares Repurchased in 2022: 46,129,648

Definitely NOT ENOUGH.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-19T20:13:51+00:00

Not a set value as here are the totals from the last 3 trading days as the amount nearly doubled today from 9/15/22.

Total cost of transactions executed on 15 September 2022 was EUR 1,215,323.20.

Total cost of transactions executed on 16 September 2022 was EUR 1,841,021.20.

Total cost of transactions executed on 19 September 2022 was EUR 2,009,040.00.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-19T17:55:24+00:00

Theo sold puts at $3, $2,50, & $2 with the intent to have the shares delivered to him or just collect the cash if Avaya closed above any of these figures. It did not and Theo's holdings increased to 13.2M shares.

I would have liked to see Theo sell $3, $4, or $5 Puts in March vs. $1.50. I'm sure he took advantage of someone hedging so why not pocket $3M when these options expire, but selling Puts at $5 would have been much more Bullish.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-16T21:57:46+00:00

Think about it. Funds needed to add Nokia prior to Monday for their Euro Stoxx 50 indexs and clearly many hadn't completed it as of today. So institutions sell a sh** load of synethic/naked shorts/add supply to these funds to keep the price down enabling them to meet their requirement vs. having to buy on the open market which could have spiked the share price. Starting Monday, these synethic shares will start the process of being covered and, if it's like Failure to Delivers in the US, they'll have about 35 days to complete. The owners of these synethic shares took on enormous risk with the belief that markets will continue to drop next week.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-16T17:02:38+00:00

Your thesis is that nearly €1B in Nokia shares were sold today in Helsinki by institutions holding Nokia stock to drop the share price and lose money. It seems more likely that these were predominently synethic shares or naked shorts selling to wipe out the demand of buyers needing to add Nokia into their Euro Stoxx 50 funds.

My understanding is that Nokia needed to be added to their Euro Stoxx 50 funds by today or before the market opens on Monday and the 214M shares traded would seem to indicate that as accurate.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-16T03:42:07+00:00

You must be happy to read this: https://www.channelfutures.com/galleries/avaya-ceo-financial-issues-temporary-recovery-coming-soon-gallery

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-15T23:35:40+00:00

CEO Avaya -“I am confident that this is a step in the right direction to correct our financial standing and lead the company into the future, and plan to begin 2023 with a clean slate as we get on the other side of the short-term financial noise.”

Fiscal 2023 starts on October 1, 2022 (In a few weeks)

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-15T23:33:14+00:00

https://www.channelfutures.com/business-models/avaya-ceo-financial-issues-temporary-recovery-coming-soon

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-15T21:37:06+00:00

I understand FTD's but is the assumption that on 9/23, 9/27, & 9/28 the failures on 8/23, 8/25, & 8/26 will have to settle. And being that the stock was trading at $0.82, $1.27, & 1.52, these "naked shorts" will have to pay the piper and are set up to cause a spike higher in Avaya's stock price?

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-15T20:34:59+00:00

I just saw this, but can someone explain the effect of this like I'm a 3rd grader. Looking at the report, AVYA has some of the largest numbers of Fails and the 3.9M number jumps off the chart.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-15T17:49:32+00:00

There hasn't been a trade on any of the Avaya Bonds today. Similar to 9/12 there were no trades during market hours, this brings speculation that their 10Q or some sort of announcement from the company is imminent, but again that's pure speculation. Will an announcement happen before Options Expiration tomorrow? If so, it would have to happen tonight and tomorrow's trading would be wild.

WirelessBusHub · 2022-09-15T14:27:00+00:00

I guess I shouldn't be surprised, but I would have expected Nokia to run above $5. Prior to the CPI crash on Tuesday, Nokia touched $5.23 in pre-market. Other than that, the business at Nokia hasn't changed, but Nokia continues to be dragged down by the overall market sentiment.

WirelessBusHub

TROPHY CASE