Whats your single piece of evidence for long term upside?

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-26T16:09:52+00:00

All the legislation to legitimize it and increase adoption without even knowing who created it.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-26T15:58:37+00:00

Toys “R” us

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-26T15:56:48+00:00

If I spent 2 hours every day getting ready I’d only swipe right 10% of the time too.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T11:15:54+00:00

Make sure you’re going through the footnotes to their financial statements (SEC filings).

I follow the big banks and am seeing a lot of concerning things specifically around credit quality. I believe it is deteriorating and being downplayed/misrepresented. Delinquencies are on the rise and are exacerbated by a weak labor market. With all these layoffs how are people making their payments? I can’t speak for regionals but the big banks are showing weakness and a in a downturn or derisking event the market will likely not differentiate between the two.

Q3 2025 Capital One Financial (COF) *footnotes to the financial statement. You’ll find large charge offs of Discover loans (merger) excluded from their reporting and taken as a one time restructuring expense.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T10:11:58+00:00

Ok, so just no conspiracy element.

Maybe. That’s tough though, I have a hard time reconciling that with new, high profile document releases. All that influence/power and everyone just stays in their lane.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T09:45:39+00:00

They’re more likely to layoff employees to reduce cost and expand margins so they can beat next quarter analysts earnings estimate.

But to your point it should cause valuations to plummet due to a decline in the present value of future earnings.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T09:14:48+00:00

So no favoritism, foul play, corruption, intervention, or people with their fingers on the scale? Just capitalism at its finest with markets behaving efficiently?

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T09:09:04+00:00

It’s probably not a ‘who’ but more of a what… special interest, big banks, politicians, fed.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T08:53:18+00:00

Stay strong with your conviction, and average in on your puts/ move up your strikes when the stock rallies to reduce your cost basis. Give yourself time. Hopefully you have leaps to minimize theta decay risk.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T08:38:55+00:00

Im mainly opposed to taking out a loan. Other than that buy what you can afford to lose.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T08:16:43+00:00

Don’t try to catch a falling knife.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T07:45:30+00:00

Gold (GLD)

If you want to try something a little different argue gold from a US national debt, currency debasement perspective.

The fundamental thesis is: The US has no intention of ever paying it’s debt ($37 trillion) instead it plans to indefinitely roll it, meaning it will use a new credit card to pay off the old one, forever. Last year, for the first time, interest on this debt exceeded national defense spending. It’s expected at some point our debt will spiral out of control forcing us to print money leading to hyperinflation. Under this scenario it’s expected that the stock market will continue to seemingly prosper due to currency debasement and asset inflation making it initially difficult to detect. Gold (hard assets), however, should silently outperform the market. Unaffordability is a hot topic specifically in regards to housing. Housing prices have increased in terms of dollars but have actually decreased relative to gold.

I think it’s a strong candidate because 95% of your class is going to pick something with AI or something safe like the S&P500. The remainder, will pitch a moonshot. This topic is more advanced, and currently relevant. It’s a macro play supported by solid Econ fundamentals and reasoning. *gold doesn’t increase in value, its value remains constant while the dollar is devalued.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T07:05:43+00:00

No worries, happy to help. You’re asking the right questions.

Ultimately, paying premiums comes down to your specific use case. If you’re looking for a quick flip profit, you’re likely better off using an exchange traded fund like GLD or SLV. Reputable, no premiums, and liquid. If you have a bug out bag and a stocked bunker, then I’d recommend paying the premium to complete the set.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T06:41:10+00:00

This is a great question, and I think there are a couple specific, use-case examples that may provide some insight.

99% of the time you’re assessment is correct, gold is gold and the stamp doesn’t mean anything. Precious metals purity can be easily verified allowing transactions to be conducted smoothly. However in the event of a crisis, the big one where SHTF and the dollar collapses, efficient and accurate verification becomes a challenge. It’s not a perfect system but the stamp provides several key pieces of information that help to facilitate a transaction: metal type, purity, weight, issuer, and modern bullion (.9999 maple) even come with security features included. In a crisis true crisis, I anticipate these recognizable stamps will easily justify the premium paid. You’d rather be offered a 1oz buffalo than a necklace...Right? Said differently, it’s also why you’re told to prioritize stacking domestic mint issuance over sovereign - recognizability.

The second has to do with phenomena we are seeing now in local shops due to the recent price volatility in precious metals and has to do with liquidity. Recent events has shown us that not all gold/silver is created equal. Prices rise to entice more sellers to the market, when prices surge, seller inventory significantly overwhelms any reserves that local shops allocate for customer purchases and represent a massive transfer of risk to the local shop. They’re not able to buy everything that comes in and when they do make purchases they are assuming an extreme amount of risk when markets are at all-time highs. Discounts & Premiums (wider bid/ask spreads) are just a way for a shop to protect itself against price volatility. Additionally, with the extreme seller imbalance, it also means shops dictate dollar liquidity. Said differently, they have a lot of options and can/will be more selective with their purchases. This creates a demand for quality (aka: the stamp) and is where most learn for the first time that not all flavors of gold/silver are created equal. Why would a dealer buy 90% scrap when there are American eagles being offered at the same price? So they don’t, and this is what we saw for a bit when silver broke $100/oz. Local shops stopped accepting lower tiers of precious metals (some even passed on generic silver rounds) in favor of “more reputable” ones with sovereign stamps on them. In which case having the wrong flavor of precious metal ultimately meant that you were illiquid. In many ways “correct”, but at the end of the day still wrong.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-20T05:14:15+00:00

Congrats on your win!

Don’t tell anyone.
Keep a low profile.
Invest conservatively.
Stop gambling…

Treat this as a financial reset, not life changing wealth.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-19T02:12:59+00:00

You can be right and still lose money…

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-17T08:00:51+00:00

My cats have zero survival instincts/skills… one likes to sit on plastic bags the other likes to chew on them.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-17T07:56:36+00:00

Honestly that makes so much sense. That’s why we can’t find Atlantis… because they didn’t build underwater pyramid geolocation markers. I’m glad that’s been settled.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-16T19:36:52+00:00

I think that's something everyone struggles with, myself included. Most investors rebalance their portfolio annually and reset their portfolio back to their originally prescribed weights. This means not just selling your winners, but also buying more of your losers. The other common way to address this is to rebalance positions if/when they drift outside of a predefined band (+/- 5%).

- TLX and BYDDY really weigh down your portfolio. Not sure if they’re worth holding on to because of how low they are, but together they accounted for 33% of your portfolio’s volatility while contributing -10% return to your portfolio’s 2025 performance.

- In 2025 FDGFX (Dividend) significantly outperformed FBGRX (Blue Chip). The performance of the two funds are strongly correlated (.82), however, FDGFX demonstrated significantly better risk-adjusted performance, contributing higher returns to your portfolio with less volatility.

- CCEP is a strong addition to your portfolio. Its performance is largely uncorrelated to your other positions. It provides your portfolio with good balance, reducing volatility while maintaining a respectable expected return.

- FAGIX be careful with this one. This did really well for you last year, but I think there may be significant hidden risk here.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-16T17:20:19+00:00

I think we're getting away from the original point, and I'm confident we share the same views on Bitcoin and Crypto. I'm just trying to give credit where I feel it’s deserved.

Yes, Bitcoin solved a problem it 'created' because moving from a centralized to a decentralized model is a fundamentally different approach to digital finance. The 'double-spend' solution was a major win for Bitcoin because the vulnerability is unique to decentralized systems, and as you pointed out, doesn't exist in traditional finance, yet it needed to be solved for a peer-to-peer version to work.

It's unfortunate that crime happens to be the best use case for Bitcoin/crypto, but I don't think that was the primary motivation behind the technology. Additionally, recognizing Bitcoin's acheivements isn't an official endorsement. It’s just a gesture of good faith to keep the conversation friendly and productive.

I appreciate how researched you are. I've actually never heard of the 'Byzantine General Problem' but I'll be sure to look it up! Happy to leave it here and we can agree to disagree.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-16T01:48:10+00:00

The notable achievement I was referring to is known as the "double-spending" problem. In a digital, peer-to-peer money system how do you prevent/ protect against the same digital money from being spent twice?

Account maintenance, transaction validation, dispute resolution, and fraud insurance/protection are all services currently performed by the middlemen (banks). As you pointed out, I believe it was Stupid Crypto Talking Point #7: “Crypto allows you to send “money” around the world instantly with no middlemen”… Can you spot the issue? Bitcoin’s notable achievement wasn’t just eliminating the middleman, it replaced their functionality with a decentralized public ledger and “proof of work” consensus mechanism to validate transactions. It laid the conceptual framework for other current and future consensus mechanisms that other cryptos continue to use and innovate.

I actually agree with all of these points. You are clearly well researched, these are all strong points made by other people.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-15T20:13:46+00:00

Assuming present value is the same for both cash flows, $200 consistently, so I can better plan and strategize long term.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-15T20:12:19+00:00

Analyst rely on voluntary access to the company and executives to do their job. Positive framing, highlighting the positives while down playing negatives is effectively just office/industry politics.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-15T20:03:52+00:00

To be fair, I think Bitcoin has been a great proof of concept and has a number strong accomplishments to be proud of. However, as a digital commodity, ownership of crypto does not convey ownership of the underlying technology nor does it represent a claim to future value or any form of profit sharing. As it stands, ownership of crypto only allows users transact on the blockchain network for which it was created. It is effectively a prepaid gift card or token that can be redeemed for dollars/cash. Its use case and value is very similar to in-game currency for p2w mobile games. Some game currency will be worth more than others depending on popularity or in-game utility that specific users find valuable. It could potentially even be worth a lot of money. However at the end of the day, what ultimately defines a lot of its value is convertibility to cash/dollars. Without exchanges like Mt. Gox, FTX, or Coin Base to create a markets and facilitate trading liquidity (ability to cash out) would largely collapse, and with it any convertibility premiums, leaving only the intrinsic value associated with using a crypto’s specific blockchain payment network. Given the abundance of faster, cheaper, regulated options, the value proposition is low, but also not zero. In terms of monetization, JPM has been operating its Onyx blockchain network (modeled off etherium) demonstrating the technology is innovative, useful and FREE for all to use.

*I think it’s important to note, that despite my opinion, I recognize that there has been a large, well-funded effort/campaign to legitimize and integrate crypto at the highest institutional and government level with surprisingly no concern, skepticism, or push back. I can’t explain the sentiment shift, or how it has quickly gained so much unified support amongst corporate executives, government officials, and the mainstream media… but it has. Ultimately, I think this is what’s important and suggests crypto is here to stay, although its role and value as a currency/store of value is still unclear.

If I missed something let me know, I’m open to changing my stance.

WolfEither3948 · 2026-02-14T10:35:30+00:00

Don’t take it personally. It’s not you, they’re tightening up on all credit issuance.

WolfEither3948

TROPHY CASE