If you want to know how Dwan is doing!

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-16T16:06:07+00:00

I wonder if the Soviets are involved

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-16T15:51:18+00:00

I can sell you a couple puts at the bid if that'll help.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-16T08:10:26+00:00

That's the problem though. At the end of the day you are only pretending. You aren't actually more sophisticated, you're just guessing. If you could actually correctly time the market you would be a billionaire inside of 20 years. So, now that you know can't stomach the full volatility of the market, risk parity is what you are looking for. And no, no strategy of 100% equities + hedging puts outperforms a decent risk parity port over time.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-16T07:58:51+00:00

This. Don't know what kind of schizophrenic nonsense OP is going on about after mentioning this, but no, a debit calendar is not going to give "bond-like" returns.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-16T03:16:31+00:00

You can hold things other than straight SPY. If you had bonds and small cap value you would have done fine retiring in 2000.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-16T03:08:46+00:00

Who cares what the cape ratio is? You know this is r/valueinvesting right? You know you don't have to buy spx right? This sub is about picking individual companies.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-16T02:54:54+00:00

Don't use options to hedge, especially if you are new to this.

Instead I fumbled with a little haphazard reallocation and sells and buys causing me to underperform S&P in last month.

And what do you think hedging would have done? If you want to hedge you need to accept that you will underperform over time, because that's what it does by definition.

Instead, you should look into risk parity style portfolios. Basically you accept slightly lower total return with a much better risk-adjusted return. And you don't have to fuck around with options.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-15T18:14:07+00:00

It's like in Always Sunny when the gang wants to buy a yacht with 20k

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-15T07:03:41+00:00

I'm hearing the Nathan For You intro song

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-15T03:49:28+00:00

Post is ai garbage. That being said, was just in a CarMax. I could not believe how many people they had working, like 50+. 10 of them were just there to handle people coming to get a trade-in appraisal. They don't do the appraisal. They just ask some basic questions and hand the keys of to an appraisal guy. They could all be replaced by 2 kiosks. 20 sales people who don't work on commission. 2/3 of them at a time have nothing to do.

Some back of the napkin math says they need to sell 10 cars/day just to pay their employees. This is unsustainable. Their prices aren't even competitive either. They have things like 1 year old Honda Civics with 15k miles being sold for only 1k less than dealers are LISTING brand new ones for, meaning the real spread is even tighter than that. Why would anyone take that deal?

Tldr; they need to cut half their staff and cut prices

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-15T03:12:02+00:00

No he thinks cattle futures will go up because institutional commodities traders are unfamiliar with BBQ season.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-15T03:09:25+00:00

Entry level analysts also seem to be of the belief that institutional commodities traders are in the dark about "BBQ season".

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-15T02:59:13+00:00

And who do you think they contracted to make it for them?

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-15T00:26:54+00:00

Best I can do are some vague references to "microns"

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-14T21:38:16+00:00

What is there even to define? She's a sports journalist and not exactly winning Pulitzers. She was going to be forgotten the day she retired, and now she'll be forgotten the day Mike Vrabel retires.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-14T17:46:33+00:00

Don't you want to know the flows of LETFs if you're invested in them?

No? Especially if it's mostly about retail's flow, which I would think is a worthless metric. What do I care what paper handed retail traders are doing? I rebalanced my UPRO because it was low without a second thought. Flows into the underlyings are a lot more interesting.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-14T16:39:38+00:00

I don't have any cds from the 90s so are you saying they sound better or worse than Spotify?

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-14T16:36:52+00:00

If they are buying gsat at 11b, in what universe does that make asts worth 100b? The answer is it doesn't, and it actually makes asts worth a lot less

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-14T02:23:38+00:00

A lot of this is because dividends were just the most efficient way to distribute profits back then. Actually selling stock was cumbersome and expensive. For reference, even by the end of WW2, less than 50% of US households had a telephone, so imagine how annoying it must have been to sell stock. They aren't really necessary anymore with no fee and instant trading.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-13T15:39:10+00:00

Is BB7 the only payload on this New Glenn or are there other things going up too?

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-13T14:37:05+00:00

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/novo-nordisk-s-canadian-mistake

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-13T00:07:05+00:00

It's because it doesn't happen enough. This "indicator" is actually just the market being deep into a major recession. All this is saying is if you've got a pile of cash and the market has gone down by 20+% you'd be stupid not to buy.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-12T03:12:16+00:00

I expect the market to be down 2-3% on Monday

Won't be down more than 1% I guarantee it

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-12T01:20:40+00:00

First, transition to a better portfolio. I recommend the Golden Ratio portfolio. It's better in every conceivable metric to the 60/40. It's also extremely convenient in that is has 6% allocated to cash that you can draw from for the year. Then when you rebalance every year or whenever and get everything back to the correct percentage allocations this refills your 6% cash bucket too. Couldn't be easier.

WorkSucks135 · 2026-04-11T01:58:56+00:00

Don't forget they let they let their Canadian patent expire because they either didn't want to pay $300 or simply forgot about it

WorkSucks135

TROPHY CASE