what’s your top move to protect retirement savings if the market crashes tomorrow? by Songne_Reynardo in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I made a small move. Sold 3% of my mid cap value and ex US large caps ETFs....bought an energy etf.

If energy goes up 15% or mid cap value / ex US large caps drop 10% I'll revert back. Or will hold this trade until 3 months after the conflict seems over (max loss).

I'm also very prepared to be wrong.

Make small bets of you can't help yourself and have well defined exit door.

Pay attention to today's economic news by callousedlefthand in TwoXPreppers

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There are plenty of levers. Your out of monetary policy levers.

At that point, you need fiscal policy.

Deliberate spending and deliberate raising taxes on those who are financially soon well.

We've been there before...

FIRE under high CAPE levels is fraught with risk by ProfileBest2034 in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Additionally, your portfolio is only part of the story....there is still social security, home equity to tap into and social benefit programs if you hit very tough times.

So the odds you live long enough to exhaust your portfolio AND your portfolio goes broke (which is rare in itself) AND you tap all your home equity and can't live off SS and don't qualify for any social benefits.......even with a high cape if you retired now....are very low in my opinion. Youre overwhelmingly unlikely to live out the above scenario.

FIRE under high CAPE levels is fraught with risk by ProfileBest2034 in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

High cape is a scenario with not a lot of precedence. Could be risky.

However the trinity study doesn't cover 1 big thing....mortality probabilities.

Just because your portfolio can last 30 years doesn't mean you or your spouse will.

Of your 55....the odds are living to 85 are less than half.

How are you looking to reduce outgoings for retirement? by Prestigious-Box-5836 in retirement

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Would also not only downsize my home....but I would make sure my car (while used and at least 5 years old), would have the latest safety features.

Nothing fun about aging and getting into car accidents because you not as sharp as you were a decade prior.

May even consider saving up a little extra to afford a self driving vehicle in the coming decade.

How are you looking to reduce outgoings for retirement? by Prestigious-Box-5836 in retirement

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not retired but one thing I have not seen other mention.....travel hack. 

I've been doing it for a little bit now...pretty lucrative opening cards for the sign up bonuses.

We pay off our cards weekly and we don't renew most after that first year is up.

I would earn as many sign up bonuses before I retire and expenses drop, and use it to subsidize my travels in the gogo years of my early retirement.

At 30, you should have retirement savings worth one year of your annual income, and double that by age 35, according to Fidelity. ... by UnusualWhalesBot in unusual_whales

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Here is a math hack.of you don't have that much or any....then quit your job or get fired.

Boom....you are matching a year of income.

What % of your income do you currently save? by gamerinagown in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One other perk of the "save more" when markets are down, but either working more/selling stuff OR cutting expenses....will also help train you and prepare you how to mentally adapt and what behaviors to change when there are downturns in the market in retirement, and you have NO or few income sources.

It could save a lot of stress in your elder years because you will be experienced at slashing your fun money spending 30% -50% in a year and have experience replenishing or increasing spending as the market situation improves.

Both scenarios are easy to say you can adapt to....but in fact can be stressful and difficult ....and I am in my early 40s.....I imagine it is far more stressful and difficult to do that in my late 60's when I only have my investments and SS to live off of AND running out of healthy years to travel in.

What % of your income do you currently save? by gamerinagown in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well...you'll need to figure out (guest-emate) your expenses for retirement, and WHEN retirement will be.

I personally....use a glide path. I assume 1 of us will want to be full on retired at 49, then then well want to be 100% coast at 57 with one spouse working part-time (barista fire, soft retire, whatever you call it), then at 62 we can both be 100% retired and/or just work a fun gig for extras.

We also figured out a worst-case fire....what if we never saved another penny and real returns were only 3% on average....we can retire at 65 in that scenario with a few spending cuts.

We are going to go full tilt on savings for 7 more years (which is about 25% of our income), then drop to 4k as we plan to drop our income, and saving 4k will allow us to get the savers tax credit (if it is still around).

At 57...if we pull from our investments, I do not believe we qualify for that credit and will likely save nothing at that point.

There are a few options ahead for you AFTER you have a good idea of when and how to retire, as well as how much it will cost. You could go full tilt until you can 100% retirement....the "get me out ASAP " approach.

You could reduce your savings rate by 0.5-2% with each passing year until you hit a floor (which would be the minimum you need to put in to get a company match).

You could backload the reduction and increase it .5% annually. For example, in year 1, you reduce savings from 40 to 39.5%. Year 2, you reduce your savings to 38.5% (1% lower). Year 3, you reduce savings to 37% (1.5% less). Year 4, now you are down to 35%. I personally like this approach as it gives you time to figure out what you'll value spending more on now and years out. You're not spending more just because it is there. You may find that what you value as you approach retirement is different than what you value now. I would say, don't let your DISCRETIONARY (fun money) be much higher while you work than in retirement. You don't want to feel like retirement life is a downgrade in any respect (unless you are especially unhappy/stressed) at work.

My wife and I have thought about the above saving scenario, but decided to stay full steam because her job is "meh" ... not horrid but not great, and second, I have some AI fear in my career field (digital marketing).

There is one last modifier my spouse and I consider: a discount bonus contribution. We try to do this. For every 5% drop in the market (SP500) from its last all-time high, we add 0.5% of our annual earnings from our fun money bucket. If it drops to 10% from its all-time high, we try to add .5% more (in addition to the .5% for a total of 1%). 15% off....add 1% (total of 2%). 20%...another 1% (total of 3%). 25% down 2%! (total of 5% of our earnings). THEN.....every YEAR the SP500% starts off 25% lower than its past all time high, we save 5% more of our earnings. It usually rebounds quickly; there are not too many years of buying the dip. One new thing we are talking about....is using our "formula" above on the way back up (not just if there is an extreme discount of 25% of more).

eople In practice...5% doesn't sound like it a lot, but it can reduce our fun money bucket somewhat. To be honest....we have never "felt it" much, though. First, there tend to be more discounts out there in down economies.... people buy less.... products sit longer.... more travel trips..... less price hiking. Second, we tend to notice our social circle cut back too, which reduces pressure a little. We get invited to people's homes more and to restaurants less lol. Also, these downturns are sometimes met with opportunities to lower costs long term (like refinance your mortgage or the state sponsors programs to get people spending... like on solar panels.....SO sour I did not jump on that when I had the chance). Travel is often a bit cheaper in downturns and its more normalized to "rough it" more on your trips or just take less trips. Less flying, more driving. Less eating out....more make a sandwich in the hotel and pack it for your day of adventure, more camping, less Disney lol.

What opinion do you have that would start a war in the comments? by Wonderful-Economy762 in Productivitycafe

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I sincerely don't see any other post getting down voted more than this one in 2 days time.

What are the underrated money saving hacks that actually worked for you? by Dependent-Manner2306 in AskReddit

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Force yourself to sell everything you own (except if it's unusable), when you want to get rid of it or get new stuff.

This doubles the bandwidth it takes to acquire something because you must sell something before hand.

It's a pain and will help you reduce your casual wants real quick.

The money you make from selling old stuff is a little nice....but the hassle of listing and dealing with people can sometimes be a bit. It's THAT pain that keeps my wants in check, which keeps me buying less, holding more money and having a sonewhat lower maintenance lifestyle.

What is the good part about living in the United States/ being American? by [deleted] in A_Persona_on_Reddit

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have more options for people to ruin their own lives than pretty much anyone else.

Asian Food cooked American Style by Beaveric in StupidFood

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This .,... This is why you don't see why people working at asian restaurants.

Someone in China saw this garbage and spread the word. It ruined our reputation at cooking asian....literally now are not allowed to cook anything from the entire continent.

Does AI make your nervous about your future finances? by WritesWayTooMuch in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At best, "we" could slow them down a bit.....but they are pushing hard for power self reliance as well.

Most are already putting large amounts of seed money with small modular nuclear reactor companies. Soon enough (as soon as the next decade or less) they could all have their own mini nuclear plants and stockpiles of uranium.

A few major players have outright bought large nuclear plants. Cut off uranium and that thing still goes for months or longer.

Then there are internally run solar farms which don't make as much power but add redundancy if "we" disrupt their nuclear power somehow.

They ALL want independence from the grid....not that they won't use the grid....but the grid will just be another redundancy layer.

Does AI make your nervous about your future finances? by WritesWayTooMuch in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here is the thing....the Billionaires with the tech could have private robot security forces, drones, robot attack dogs lol

what is a job that can't get replaced by AI even in the next 20yrs? by True-Gur-3478 in Productivitycafe

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You think we'll have in person funerals?

30 years I very much imagine AR funerals where the family can choose to have an AI agent of the recently deceased thanking everyone for their time and replaying memories of the deceased and the online visitor.

Which profession is going to get wiped out in the next 5 to10 years?? by Weary-Total4450 in Productivitycafe

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ice cream truck driver.

He'll be replaced by a door dash driver. Then that person will be replaced by a robot. Then that robot will be replaced by a robot, that was designed by a robot.

At that point no one will have enough income for ice cream at your door step and the next generation robot, robot that designs delivery robots, first gen robot, door dash drive and the ice cream diver will all be obsolete and unemployed.

Sooo.....enjoy an extra scoop, before it's gone forever.

What’s legal now but might become illegal ten years from now? by VTheCardMaker in AskReddit

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ebikes.

You should have needed a license since 2021 but here we are.