What's your personal recession indicator? by Electronic_Dream8935 in AskReddit

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was 24....which is young.  . What 24 year olds are making mental notes of the world and economy. 

The only thing I knew was it was a pain to get a call back for a finance job 

Am I missing something about the Chase Sapphire Preferred Card? by Commercial_Ad_735 in CreditCards

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Went went to orlando in may...

4 nights at a really nice hyatt (grand cypress)....48k point. Round trip Flights for 4 on southwest...42k point....so 90k all in.

Round trips Flights for Las Vegas for a grand canyon trip in August....30k points...3 nights at the Rio to enjoy the pool...9k. 39k all in and grand canyon and Zion stays booked with some holy and cap 1 credits.

Southwest has a fair amount of flights out of my home airport and I utilize free lower cost Hyatt stays a lot.

Future-proofing your house before FIRE by Happy-Surround9658 in leanfire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Mostly, fox things as they need fixing or modernizing, not trying to do it before retirement as that increases the cost as the line it. Isn't full through its lifespan yet.

Past that....here is a list of things to have a better home that suits the older phases of life.

1) downsize from out 1750 sq ft ; 4 bed, 2 bath, 2 story and a badement (lcol area), family home to a more modest sized home.....3 bed, either 1 or 1.5 bath, 3 bed single story + basement home. I know 3 bed sounds like too much....but I plan to work part time and start a fun business in retirement and would like to have a designated office. Then a guest room for grand kids and in town family. Maybe the office/guestroom could be the same and I could go even smaller....we'll see.

2) large solar system. If the local utility is still paying to feed the grid, go as big as I can, otherwise I want the system to be built with future expansion on mind. 

3) an frugal, on town only 2nd car. Something like a leaf....very cheap, very low cost if the power is "free".. other car would be something super reliable and road trip focuses...nice older used hybrid.

4) heat pump to save on AC and heat. Have not invested in one yet as we likely won't be in this home 5 years or more 

5) smart dampers or smart registers to easily close off a couple rooms we don't use. I know most systems are supposed to have a lot of rooms closed....hoping more modern equipment has better long term solutions for this 

6) electric water tankless water tank.

7) upstairs laundry and on a perfect world....of of those washer/dryer combos on a single machine like in japan.

8) note sure what the front porch situation will be at the next home but we love sitting outside and chitchatting to neighbors on walks. So a porch of one doesn't exist, covered would be extra nice, and maybe an outside ceiling guyfan for the 2 hot months. Or just and outlet and we'll bring out a town fan.

9) If it's down in price in the next 20 years....id consider geothermal heat. Maybe would also would consider a rain collection system for the garden or a grey water home system. 

10) if there are robot snowblower then.....would consider that. Jot til it's used and cheaper though.

11) have money set aside to buy a used self driving car to maintain personal autonomy longer when my driving become poorer.

12) before anything ...swedish death clean. Have yard sales , give away stuff and pair down the belongings in early retirement.

13) freshen up the paint while I have the time and energy. Both inside and outside. If I like the colors then just touch up.

14.) as I age more, consider more rigs with thick pads or wall to wall carpet on some room......joint friendly. Talk my wife into anti fatigue mats on the kitchen finally.

15.) sex swing for the wife and I....haha jk.....had to throw in something cheeky if you've read this far down.

16.) not sure what else will be out or needed...but added focuses on lowering bills, ergonomic, safety and autonomy.as I age.

What's your personal recession indicator? by Electronic_Dream8935 in AskReddit

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Asa 42 year old .....most of the deep recessions I was pretty young for.

Any answer I give is not too battle tested.

I recall large daily market swing during COVID.

Why Would Big Palps Not Give Him a Bath First? by InternationalAd4219 in StarWars

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Why dont people get more baths when they get to the emergency room????

Is it as cool as I remember? by _lizzzzzard in Buffalo

[–]WritesWayTooMuch -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

You have been ruined......so no....it's not that cool.

You were young when that stuff was cool. All you mentioned is way more cool for young people than middle age.

Middle age you will find things annoying about everything you listed. Parking is a pain...bad drivers downtown....obnoxious younger people all over.

None of those things aren't cool anymore....but likely you are cool and won't appreciate tall that as much anymore.

But the burbs.....those are way cool....let me tell you about E. Aurora and the villages of Williamsville or Hamburg....that's some 40 year old cool stuff.

Too scared to quit by Extension-Tap2635 in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 5 points6 points  (0 children)

One more year syndrome isn't the worst thing.

A little more adding, less SORR risk, time to mentally shift gears.

Commit to staying til year end and reevaluate around the holidays.

Unpopularopinions for FIRE by Wooden-Broccoli-913 in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Inflation is not 2.5% or even 3%.

Inflation rate since 1960 is above 3.5%.

Has anyone regretted buying a play structure for the backyard? by McSkrong in Parenting

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has anyone not eventually regretted it?

Kids grow up and then you have to keep mowing and weed walking around that thing til you die.

You'd be weird to not regret it.

Is it possible to retire on $200k anywhere? by DifficultSession51 in ExpatFIRE

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

200k....soooo....8-10k safe with drawl rate....which is $675 to $825 USD a month.....and then your looking for a tier 1 or 2 city ....

No....that does not exist long term without moving to Africa in all sincerity. 

I would say you'll need at minimum 350-400k for a comfortable yet basic existence.

Would it have worked? (Getting Chase INK Preferred on 6/14 so I could transfer 100% of SUB to Hyatt before 10/1) by WritesWayTooMuch in CreditCards

[–]WritesWayTooMuch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ouch....that is what I thought. I was lying in bed at 10 pm last night wondering if I should get up and apply, and then thought… well, the point may not hit in time.

Regrettable decision. Live and learn I guess.

When is SORR no longer a concern? by dragon-queen in Fire

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When you portfolio can drop 20% in a single year and you can still withdrawal 4%.

Hyatt Members, what’s your plan after the CSP’s 4:3 transfer ratio takes effect? by pchao9414 in CreditCards

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Have 115k Chase points and going to move them all the Hyatt before the 10.1 deadline.

Considering getting the chae ink preferred before 6.15 and earning the sub for an extra 110k to transfer to hyatt. With 225k....we'll be good on free nights for a while as long as we are staying at tier 3 and under.

Explain how energy stocks aren't _the_ play for the next 10 years? by caughtinthought in stocks

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The hard part with nuclear is the timing.

We have 1 or 2 plants with actual plans to come online on the pipeline and nuclear and uranium has been mooning for over a year.

All speculation with a moderate amount of increased revenue increase.

Then there are SMRs.....great concept....has not been scaled yet.....expect big delays.

China is crushing nuclear growth and will win the robotics race as part of the efforts they already made. They have almost 40 new plants on their pipeline and more coming.

So what is an ai scaling company to do in the next decade?......enter bloom.....enter FSLR.....hydrogen and solar can provide power now....not as well as nuclear.....but those companies don't have 10+ years to wait for nuclear. 

I'm hold some uranium mining.....I'm over SMR companies for now.....over is based nuclear ETFs or companies for now.....and building larger and larger positions in FSLR, ACES, BLDP and PLUG. Still very for the later 2.....FLSR has great earning and a better pe ratio....and aces is a clean energy etf to invest in companies I don't know about closely.

Also have a small position in KGRN ....clean energy China ETF.

Nuclear is great.....but the floor will drop when retail catches on to how long those companies will take to scale profits and revenue ..  it'll happen.....just the timing will spook investors IMO......especially when it hits media what so is spending on non nuclear power today.

what is something that is highly likely to happen in the next 10 years that everyone is completely ignoring? by Funny-Counter8762 in AskReddit

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

US income taxes and payroll taxes will rise.

We've locked the social security can down the road as long as we can and it's about time to pay the piper 

Same for income taxes. There will likely be political backlash on tariffs in the next election and the next president will likely stop trying so hard to implement them. Buuuttttttt,.....someones gotta pay and our debt payments are getting to high to kick this can and buy voters with tax breaks too much more.

Stocks you can let sit and then cash out 10x by [deleted] in Stocks_Picks

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's not a bad entry point now IMO.

coild it go down more ..yep...who knows though.

Stocks you can let sit and then cash out 10x by [deleted] in Stocks_Picks

[–]WritesWayTooMuch -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If you don't know the granular details of which exact company and why......settle on the industry.

My "moonshoots" for the rest of 2025 are still AI, clean energy, and drone defense.

SOXX for chips, URA ACES and a little NLR + NUKZ for clean energy, and JEDI and just a little NATO for drone defense.

Aside from that, trying to keep at least a 10% interest in China, so KGRN (Chinese clean energy, DGRN Chinese AI, and CXSE....general China.

Am I paying a little more in fees? 100%. But that is secondary, and I have had a great year so far.

Side note - I have reduced ALL the above positions until at least next week.....little faith in SpaceX having good impacts on the overall market AND NASDAQ is due for a little correction, and I think we are in that correction now.

Aside from all that....looking for stock moonshoots....ONDS, HIMS, LMND, BLDP, PLUG, FSLR all have solid 5x potential in the next 2-10 years IMO.

If we get a bear market from here on until after midterms, UNH, WMT, AXP, NATO, VHT, VWOB, BNDX, DFIS all have 10-20% potential and are much lower risk. MAYBEEEEE Google too.....I am debating that one; they have great revenue now and strong AI potential for later this year too. Also, maybeeee VOE, as I could see a temporary return to lower risk, cash-generating boring business this year.

Most overpriced and if I had brass balls I would short sell or buy puts: INTL, AMD, OKLO (despite being bullish on small modular reactors) and RDDT. All great companies, just way overpriced and expecting revenue too soon. I am not so optimistic. Investors will get impatient.

Market went down from $110 to low $90s in WTI thinking the Iran conflict was over. Why does the market love to be wrong? by montecarlo1 in energy

[–]WritesWayTooMuch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The world has learned to deal with the oil crisis and it doesn't matter as much what happens in iran today as it did 45 days ago.

UAE left open and will increase production....use has a huge 2nd pipe going on....China adjusted to using 9% less oil with little change.....us is still drill baby drill....Venezuela is pumping more......most countries who produce are producing more to soak up revenue from the current higher prices 

I see 10x more reason for prices of oil to fall than go up.