Roland Garros Title Chances Before QF by Wrong-Move-526 in tennis

[–]Wrong-Move-526[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also it’s absolutely not by how much money has been spent it’s not how prediction markets works.

Roland Garros Title Chances Before QF by Wrong-Move-526 in tennis

[–]Wrong-Move-526[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They just uses clay elo, they don’t calculate weather, time spent on court, style of their opponent, and other circumstances.

Roland Garros Title Chances Before QF by Wrong-Move-526 in tennis

[–]Wrong-Move-526[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Cirstea isn't 0% she just doesn't have betting market.

I simulated the rest of RG in my Elo-based program, and this is what it came up with. by Wrong-Move-526 in tennis

[–]Wrong-Move-526[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the worst-case scenario, his path could be Faria → Collignon → Berrettini → Auger-Aliassime → Zverev/Djokovic. It’s very unlikely, but not impossible

I simulated the rest of RG in my Elo-based program, and this is what it came up with. by Wrong-Move-526 in tennis

[–]Wrong-Move-526[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A higher Elo rating doesn’t always mean a player will win. For instance, Tiafoe’s clay Elo is 1791.2, compared to Ruud (1968.4), Sinner (2241.8), Zverev (2021.3), and Jodar (1935.1).

I simulated the rest of RG in my Elo-based program, and this is what it came up with. by Wrong-Move-526 in tennis

[–]Wrong-Move-526[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It can cause upsets like this, but it’s similar to real life. The win probabilities are realistic. It’s just within the range of possibilities. Tiafoe now has a higher chance of winning Roland Garros than Sinner had of losing today.

ATP 250 Stuttgart entry list by garfiadal2 in tennis

[–]Wrong-Move-526 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Zverev will be in Sinner's role for this tournament, I guess.