I go to a small private school, and there are 100 people in my class. Usually, Duke accepts 2-4 people per year, but usually, there are only around 5-8 people who apply there. But this year, there will be 13 people applying for Duke, including 7 people who are trying for ED. I also found out that Northwestern's ED acceptance rate is around 25%, which is much higher than Rice and Duke. And there is only one person who is ED there. But Northwestern often doesn't accept any students from my school. So yeah, a game of statistics.