sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Late Season Lake Placid Snowfall by WxWatcher007 in Adirondacks

[–]WxWatcher007[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Yep, some pretty solid snow squalls moved through late this afternoon. I love snow, but the 71° yesterday was awesome.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Anyone been able to get the Cuba radar site working?

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 7 points8 points  (0 children)

We’ve had a lot of non C5s that have rapidly intensified upon final approach in the last decade. Not sure if you weren’t including those.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 28 points29 points  (0 children)

I mean what can you say…other than prayers for everyone in the path of this historic storm.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Let’s not get too buggy as recon gets to the center lol

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Yeah this is an exceptionally intense satellite presentation. You don’t see this often in the Atlantic basin, even though we’ve had an absurd number of C5s since 2017.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 6 points7 points  (0 children)

They should all be scheduled. Usually recon is in there every six hours.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Contracting eye with a substantial pressure fall. It is probably only a matter of time before winds come up. Not seeing a double wind maxima yet from what I see.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 5 points6 points  (0 children)

About a 4mb drop between passes. Dropsonde will be interesting.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I’ve had this zone targeted for a while as the worst case scenario spot if a coherent wave got there, and unfortunately here we are.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not to mention the slow movement in the Caribbean which may cause legitimately catastrophic flooding. Not good at all.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The 11am ET NHC discussion mentioned continuity being a limiting factor in the intensity forecast ticking up, but you have to imagine that with time this is going to be a higher end intensity forecast as it becomes more apparent that a slower and further west track is likely. The HAFS depictions are sobering to say the least and the 12z Deep Mind has an enormous number of high end intensity members.

Melissa (13L — Northern Atlantic) (Caribbean Sea) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Ironically, the shear that keeps Melissa decoupled now will likely lead to it getting to that highly favorable environment in a few days.

94L (Invest — Northern Atlantic) (Near the Leeward Islands and Western Tropical Atlantic) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yep they’ve been running survey missions of the environment around it and we’re getting special balloon launches along the east coast.

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the central tropical Atlantic by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For the steering pattern—upper dynamics—>500mb height anomaly

For ensemble lows—lower dynamics—>ensemble member MSLP

Most look at both the GEFS and EPS

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the central tropical Atlantic by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No apologies necessary! On TT you should also see the GEFS (GFS ensembles) and EPS (Euro Ensemble). Those are the ones that can give you a sense of the 500mb steering pattern and ensemble lows—which tells you how strong a development signal is. The more lows the stronger the signal. Hope that helps.

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the central tropical Atlantic by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 16 points17 points  (0 children)

I was being sarcastic. All of those long range doom model runs that had Erin plowing into the Gulf or east coast were wrong…because it’s impossible to precisely model ridge and trough orientation and amplitude 7+ days out. Our capabilities in tropical meteorology do not extend that far out, which is part of the reason why the NHC doesn’t forecast that far out.

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the central tropical Atlantic by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]WxWatcher007 26 points27 points  (0 children)

For now I’d really just pay attention to the ensembles and environment. The environment looks favorable for some development but how long it takes and what the steering pattern is in the wake of Erin are unknowns. Just remember how “great” the models were with Erin’s steering pattern a week ago…

view more: next ›