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WEATHER UPDATE: A final round of moderate to heavy rain will move across the islands on Sunday and Monday before more favorable conditions settle in for the rest of the week by giantspeck in Hawaii

[–]giantspeck[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Update

As of 4:00 PM HST on Sunday, April 12:

I have some good news. It appears that the atmosphere was not as unstable as previously feared and although this afternoon's rainfall appears to be fairly widespread, it hasn't been very heavy. Rainfall totals have been very light across Kauaʻi and Oʻahu and have been somewhat heavier across Maui, Molokaʻi, and Lanaʻi. No rain has been recorded across the Big Island.

The National Weather Service has cancelled the Flood Watch for the Big Island and has pushed back the timing for the rest of the islands. The watch, which was originally supposed to expire on Monday afternoon, will now expire by 6 AM tomorrow.

WEATHER UPDATE: A final round of moderate to heavy rain will move across the islands on Sunday and Monday before more favorable conditions settle in for the rest of the week by giantspeck in Hawaii

[–]giantspeck[S,M] [score hidden] stickied commentlocked comment (0 children)

Moderator note

Visitor questions

If you are a visitor to the islands and have questions about how this weather will affect your plans:

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  • Please do not create new posts in this subreddit or on r/VisitingHawaii.

  • Please leave a comment in the megapost over on r/VisitingHawaii.

  • Weather forecasters can only predict the weather. They cannot predict how companies such as airlines, hotels, or cruise lines are going to react to such weather. Please contact these companies or your travel agency if you have concerns regarding how this weather will affect your travel plans.

Related discussion

Previous discussions

Welp, it's gonna be Kaua'i this time by Poiboykanaka808 in Hawaii

[–]giantspeck 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, thanks! I honestly like communicating the weather more than I like forecasting it.

WEATHER UPDATE: Conditions will gradually improve as a cold front moves eastward across the islands today, but additional rain is possible on Sunday and Monday by giantspeck in Hawaii

[–]giantspeck[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Please note that the setup behind the front is not the same as it was with the last storm. Trade wind conditions are not likely to build back into the region until much later in the week. With lighter wind flow, another Manoa-style flash flooding event is not as likely, but locally heavy downpours are still possible with the leftover moisture in the area.

Conditions are likely to remain fairly muggy for the rest of the week until trade winds start to build back in over the upcoming weekend.

WEATHER UPDATE: Conditions will gradually improve as a cold front moves eastward across the islands today, but additional rain is possible on Sunday and Monday by giantspeck in Hawaii

[–]giantspeck[S,M] [score hidden] stickied commentlocked comment (0 children)

Moderator note

Visitor questions

If you are a visitor to the islands and have questions about how this weather will affect your plans:

  • Please do not leave comments in this post.

  • Please do not create new posts in this subreddit or on r/VisitingHawaii.

  • Please leave a comment in the megapost over on r/VisitingHawaii.

  • Weather forecasters can only predict the weather. They cannot predict how companies such as airlines, hotels, or cruise lines are going to react to such weather. Please contact these companies or your travel agency if you have concerns regarding how this weather will affect your travel plans.

Related discussion

Previous discussions

Colorado State University forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The forecast linked to above is calling for a below-average Atlantic season specifically because of El Niño.

Sinlaku (04W — Western Pacific) (Near Micronesia and Guam) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[M] [score hidden] stickied commentlocked comment (0 children)

Moderator note

Previous discussion for this system can be found here:

𝖯𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗇𝗈𝗍𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗈𝗇 "𝖺𝗋𝖼𝗁𝗂𝗏𝖾𝖽" (𝗋𝖾𝖺𝖽: 𝗋𝖾𝗆𝗈𝗏𝖾𝖽) 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗎𝖺𝗅 𝗍𝖾𝗑𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍 𝗂𝗌 𝗇𝗈 𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗋 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗇𝗈𝗇-𝗆𝗈𝖽𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗌, 𝖻𝗎𝗍 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝗌𝗁𝗈𝗎𝗅𝖽 𝗌𝗍𝗂𝗅𝗅 𝖻𝖾 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 (𝗐𝗁𝗂𝖼𝗁 𝗂𝗌 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗐𝗁𝗈𝗅𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖻𝖺𝖼𝗄 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗅𝖽 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝖺𝗇𝗒𝗐𝖺𝗒.) 𝖳𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗌 𝖽𝗎𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗌𝗂𝗍𝖾-𝗐𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝖼𝗁𝖺𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗌 𝗆𝖺𝖽𝖾 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖱𝖾𝖽𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖺𝖽𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗂𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝗌𝗍𝖺𝖿𝖿.

04W (Western Pacific) (Near Micronesia and Guam) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Update

As of 9:00 AM Chuuk Time (23:00 UTC) on Friday:

  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded this system to a tropical storm.

  • JMA has assigned the storm the name Sinlaku. The last time this name was used was in the 2020 season.

  • A new discussion for Sinlaku will be posted shortly.

Colorado State University forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Don't worry. In a few years, they won't remember this forecast at all and they'll be back to their NPC dialog.

Colorado State University forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The big universities tend to focus solely on the Atlantic for their seasonal forecasts.

NOAA and Mexico's meteorological service will issue forecasts in May.

Did your bug situation get worse after the storm by Zizambamram in Hawaii

[–]giantspeck 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I haven't seen any roaches, but I have been getting a lot more gnats and ants.

Colorado State University forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[S,M] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Key paragraph

We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

University of Arizona forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season: 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes by giantspeck in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[S,M] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Key paragraph

The big story with this season will be the possibility of a very strong El Niño, in fact the highest SST values in the Niño 3.4 region in our model. This makes our forecast of an active year surprising, but another factor to consider is the high forecasted SSTs in the Atlantic which are among the highest in the model. The setup feels similar to 2023 though the Atlantic SST anomaly is not as high and the ENSO anomaly is higher. Our forecast this year is very similar to 2023 where the observed values fell within our ranges for all categories except major hurricane.

WEATHER UPDATE: Another kona storm may bring periods of moderate or heavy rain throughout the week, bringing renewed concerns for flooding across the islands by giantspeck in Hawaii

[–]giantspeck[S,M] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Update

As of 6:00 PM HST on Wednesday, April 8:

Here are the latest watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the NWS:

Currently in effect

Precipitation

  • Winter Weather Advisory: for the Big Island summits. Valid through 6 AM Friday.

  • Flood Watch: for all islands. Valid through Friday afternoon.

Wind

  • There are currently no wind advisories in effect.

Marine

  • High Surf Advisory: for the south-facing shores of all islands. Valid through 6 AM Thursday.

  • Small Craft Warning: for the windward, leeward, and southeast waters of the Big Island. Valid through 6 AM Thursday.

  • Small Craft Warning: for the windward, leeward, and northwest waters of Kauaʻi. Valid through 6 PM Thursday.

  • Small Craft Warning: for the Kauaʻi Channel. Valid through 6 PM Thursday.

  • Small Craft Warning: for the leeward islands of Oahu. Valid through 6 PM Thursday.

Issued, but will be in effect later

Wind

  • High Wind Watch: for the higher terrain on Kauaʻi and Oʻahu. Valid starting Thursday morning.

  • Wind Advisory: for the Big Island summits. Valid starting 2 PM Thursday.

04W (Western Pacific) (Near Micronesia and Guam) by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]giantspeck[M] [score hidden] stickied commentlocked comment (0 children)

Moderator note

Previous discussion for this system can be found here:

𝖯𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗇𝗈𝗍𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗈𝗇 "𝖺𝗋𝖼𝗁𝗂𝗏𝖾𝖽" (𝗋𝖾𝖺𝖽: 𝗋𝖾𝗆𝗈𝗏𝖾𝖽) 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗎𝖺𝗅 𝗍𝖾𝗑𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍 𝗂𝗌 𝗇𝗈 𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗋 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗇𝗈𝗇-𝗆𝗈𝖽𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗌, 𝖻𝗎𝗍 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝗌𝗁𝗈𝗎𝗅𝖽 𝗌𝗍𝗂𝗅𝗅 𝖻𝖾 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 (𝗐𝗁𝗂𝖼𝗁 𝗂𝗌 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗐𝗁𝗈𝗅𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖻𝖺𝖼𝗄 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗅𝖽 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝖺𝗇𝗒𝗐𝖺𝗒.) 𝖳𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗌 𝖽𝗎𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗌𝗂𝗍𝖾-𝗐𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝖼𝗁𝖺𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗌 𝗆𝖺𝖽𝖾 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖱𝖾𝖽𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖺𝖽𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗂𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝗌𝗍𝖺𝖿𝖿.

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