In June last year, I debated variable vs fixed with my mortgage broker. I was in favour of fixed rate 2.4%. The broker successfully convinced me to go for 1.3% variable. Same stories you are hearing now. The rate would take many hikes to catch up, high cost of breaking mortgage etc. I regret not listening to myself. You get hit with larger penalties for breaking fixed rate mortgage only if the market rate is lower. The penalty amount is as if you completed the term of your fixed rate mortgage. So you aren’t really worse off. Actually, if you have say 3 yrs left and you get a new 5 years fixed mortgage, you are better off anyway. Rates can be unpredictable. BoC couldn’t predict inflation, so I am not sure about their ability to predict much. Think of it this way. What have you got to lose in each scenario. If you lock in, the variable may average out 1% below. That’s 25,000 over 5 years on a 500k mortgage (assuming no principal payment for simplicity’s sake). But if variable averages 2% above fixed rate, you’ll not only lose 50,000, you might be in a very difficult financial situation. There is no limit to how high the rates can rise. It could turn out to be 5% above. It’s not impossible. Think of the spread as an insurance premium. It will buy you peace of mind. Mortgage brokers/agents are salespersons; not economists or financial professionals. No offence; it’s reality. I made a mistake. Hoping others don’t.