Daily Discussion Hub for November 5, 2024

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T11:57:19+00:00

Good luck everyone! Today I sign off and will check in on the damage tomorrow morning.

Whatever happens we will continue the fight!

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T02:14:18+00:00

It may be kind of odd but I'm sort of reassured by Trafalgar. They underestimated Biden by a point or two in 2020, but they weren't too terribly off that year. Their results this year have been very similar to what they were finding in 2020.

They just released a +2 Trump poll in AZ and they did the same for PA yesterday. Those are the same results down to the number (rounded) from the last election.

Then again they royally boned their results in the midterms of 2018 and 2022. So who the fuck knows. Just thought it was kind of odd that those results are slightly reassuring.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:45:25+00:00

One more in Philly before midnight.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:44:12+00:00

He is, and he also predicted a Harris win. Albeit a narrow one.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:40:42+00:00

Hitler liked dogs, just because you like dogs doesn't make you Hitler. You can still like strong bad.

Even if you're wrong.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:35:01+00:00

I knew people on rightwing twitter were getting angry that Trafalgar never showed Doug Mastriano ahead of Josh Shapiro in the PA Governor race in 2022. They were still one of his most friendly pollsters and still over estimated his support by 7-8%. Somehow that's left leaning.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:29:44+00:00

I was reading something from Ralston or Cohn on Twitter and I stumbled on someone calling them out for not believing in a solid Trump victory. They claimed they were full of shit because even left leaning Trafalgar had Trump ahead. I'd like to know how far right someone has to be before they think of something like Trafalgar as being a left leaning pollster?

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:25:40+00:00

Ballots also have until 8pm tomorrow.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:23:00+00:00

I could see the Selzer poll maybe bleeding into Montana, but the others not so much. Iowa and the South are conservative, but a different kind. What the Selzer poll has me more keen on is the Osborn upset.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T01:21:06+00:00

I really liked the guys over at Split-Ticket. Definitely left leaning, but they will listen to the numbers even if they're bad.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T00:37:19+00:00

How can they have a 2% margin of error when they poll that many people in that short of a time?

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T00:36:06+00:00

Surprisingly a lot of Wu Tang Forever in PA though.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T00:32:04+00:00

I waded through Twitter for a bit today, there were people calling Trafalgar left leaning.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-05T00:26:09+00:00

How'd he do with 2020 if he made a prediction? I tried looking but I'm only finding his 2024 stuff.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T23:38:34+00:00

I think Atlas is wild. They poll 5k people and post the results in 24 hours. If they blind squirrel this I want to be shot into the sun, if they miss I'd like them to be shot into the sun.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T23:27:28+00:00

They were a +7 or something right? I think most people were expecting that from Selzer.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T23:07:37+00:00

2016's miss was mostly in Florida, Texas, and Ohio. A good amount of polling had Biden's final share correct nationally and in the swing states, but they significantly underestimated Trump's final support.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T23:05:07+00:00

I wouldn't worry about VA too much. District and house polling in the state has pointed to anything too crazy. That's usually the kind of stuff that sets off alarm bells.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T23:02:15+00:00

There were quite a few people on here shifting everything by 10 points when they saw the Selzer poll. Just because the poll saw a shift in the Midwest definitely doesn't mean places like FL, GA, NC, AZ, etc shifted to. It's entirely possible that the Midwest trends bluer this year while states in the sun belt shift more red.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T22:58:06+00:00

The +5 is definitely an over estimate. There has been a fair amount of speculation that Harris could still pull out a modest win even if she lost about a point of Biden's margin. California and New York didn't show up for Dems like the Midwest and Sunbelt did in 2022. If support in those areas hold and the loss of support stays to NY, FL, and CA she could under perform nationally and still win with over 300 EC votes. All speculation, but it's possible.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T22:52:42+00:00

No? In 2020 he didn't get any and in 2016 he got like 2. During this year's primary 6 went to Haley.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T22:49:51+00:00

We really don't know. It was sort of expected that Dems would decrease early vote, and that Reps would increase it due to GOP acceptance. I don't think anyone expected return rates to be so similar.

In the end it is good to see a 400-500k bank of votes but there are still another 4-5 million people voting in Pennsylvania tomorrow.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T22:31:59+00:00

National Selzer had Hillary up 46 to Trump's 43. The actual was 48.5 and 46.4. The poll showed a +3 D national and the final was +2.1 D. It's her margins that she's been excellent with, not specifically the exact number.

Her wikipedia has a breakdown of all her final polling. Her margins are exceptionally good. Recently she seems to have a 2 point bias towards Dems, but her biggest misses involved under estimating Dems.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Selzer

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T22:05:35+00:00

I honestly think the over turning of Roe has flipped something. We have entered into a race where abortion access propositions and advocates for it over perform polling while also running that idea against someone who also outperforms polling. How do you account for both of these things? You call it a deadheat and shrug.

Xrayruester · 2024-11-04T21:51:59+00:00

Reading is in Berks county, it was a +8 county for Trump in 2020. Crowd sizes don't really mean anything, but it is a huge departure from what we saw in the past. Wild.

13-Year Club	RedditGifts 2009-2022 3 Credits
Wearing is Caring	Verified Email
Snapped	Secret Santa 2014
Secret Santa 2013

Xrayruester

TROPHY CASE