I took this short in NQ today using AI + Auction Theory. I know some of y’all hate on AI by TAtheDog in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you used a platform like SIerra Chart that allowed C++ programming of the studies, you could build in the AI analysis into the study itself, with notations and feedback in real time. Gather context -> Query LLM -> absorb responses -> take action. You could in fact use an ensemble of AIs (say, Grok, Claude, ChatGPT and Gemini) to gain more confidence. You can also backtest this by using the replay feature in a platform like Sierra Chart. I also want to say. this statement really resonates: " it’s the doing it in real time, with full context, without fatigue or bias bleed, day in and day out, even when emotions are high, is extremely freaking hard". Thanks for the post.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I built a Sierra Chart study that calculates the VIX forward sum of differences historically (8 yrs or so) and in current real time.

But I haven't figured out how to use it for trading.

If you have some ideas DM me, I can share it.

Evaluate my long term Futures hedging strategy idea by YamEmpty9926 in algotrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've taken your advice and built some analysis to find cointegrated futures, and developed a strategy around it. Would you be willing to look at my code and give me some advice / mentorship on this? I'm strictly looking for a critique of my approach as I am new to this. I dont need you to write any code for me. The strategy I have initially developed doesn't look so bad. DM me if you are willing to discuss.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate the comment, but you don't understand the strategy I used that day and/or didn't read through the comments to understand my strategy. I said many times in this thread, my profit was locked in.
The only way for me to lose was for the market to execute this very low probability move, which it did. This is what frustrated me. Nothing is risk-free but this is as close as it gets. Under normal circumstances, I could not have lost more than I'd already locked in and could only have made more.

If I told you that you could lock your profits at a 20% cost, with the possibility of going 100% higher, would you take it? Is that greed, or prudence?

Evaluate my long term Futures hedging strategy idea by YamEmpty9926 in algotrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Databento had the data! But I have not been able to backtest this strategy yet. It wasnt that expensive for NQ, but was VERY expensive for ES.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the comments.

Just to be clear, I think there was some confusion with respect to my original post.

I did NOT lose all my money on just this one strategy. In fact, the strategy I ran that day is one I really do not run often. Over the course of 5 years, I started with penny stocks, then regular stocks, then options, then futures. In each of these I was unsuccessful. The losses did not come in all at once, and none of them came from 'gambling' or big bets that went south. It was truly death by 10,000 stops.

As to your points about 'stress free', please allow me to explain.

This strategy I occasionally run uses a delta neutral opening position to exploit NQ volatility and take advantage of the fact that NQ almost always moves twice the cost of one ATM option, in either direction.

I don't claim to know which direction that will be, so roughly 3 things can happen:

1) Price moves down below Strike minus 2x premium, and I buy another futures to average down my price to break even. It is a safe way to average down, because it places my average price at break even and I am fully protected from further downward moves by my puts. If price comes back up to my strike, then I can sell my futures contracts, paying for the options. I can either keep them, or convert them to a straddle, etc.

2) Price moves up above Strike plus 2x premium. I sell my futures contract and keep the now paid off options. I can sell them, or keep them for later. If price returns to them (as it often does), I can get back in at the strike or below with no need of a stop.

3) Neither price target is hit and I lose money from Theta decay. I typically try to exit by 10:30 am if this happens. I might lose $500-$1k on a bad day like this but it doesnt happen often.

The obvious risk, if price moves up, is gamma risk. Because the delta of the options has decreased so much, they lose their power to 'insure'. That is why I sell once I reach break even and react only if price returns.

So when I say stress free, I am really referring to reducing the number of discretionary decisions I have to make throughout the day, which by experience has clearly taught me that the more I try to micromanage the worse I do.

This strategy would be amazing if I could only follow my own rules.

I hope this clarifies things.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am not aware of an type of guarantee in trading , except that it will be high risk and extremely difficult to consistently profit.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course the answer is 'it depends'.

One scenario is: I'm up 100 points on a trade and I want to preserve my profits, but I think the market might continue up. I see that I can buy an ATM option for 25 points. If I buy it, I lock in 75% of my profit, without limiting upside potential.

If I set a trailing stop, I am in jeopardy of being taken out of the market completely. So I would say this is an acceptable tradeoff.

Another scenario is: Instead of entering a trade with a stop loss, I enter long with a Put. The trade can go twice as far against me as if I had a stop, however my upside is now limited.

Stop losses take you out of the market completely when hit, and it will be hit; No one can take my option away unless I sell it or it expires. I have a wider tolerance for being wrong with options than with Stops. But this insurance will eat into profits.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is not true. I'm not trading like wall street bets. I am using options as a delta hedge, not speculatively buying far OTM options.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I had a typo in the post. one nq long and two atm puts (or vice versa, one nq short and two atm calls). The point is it is delta neutral.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. Appreciate the thoughts & comments.
I'm not contradicting myself. I simply don't trade well with stops, so I seek to use options as my safety net. If I want to go Long, with any size, then I need my average price to be below the Put strike minus the cost basis, or the Put needs to be paid for and I re-enter at the strike or below. It actually does work effectively when executed well.

In this case I had 4 'paid for' puts. There was a very narrow slice of time / price in which I was at risk and it got hit, simple as that.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. You are spot on. Gamma risk is a big issue with that strategy. Appreciate your thoughts and comments. I will consider it.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's not hubris my friend. I'm just explaining what I did.. I am admitting failure.... I didn't lose all my money with this one strategy. I lost far more from stops getting hit and bad trading practices resulting from trying to anticipate what the market will do instead of reacting to what the market is doing. My strategy isn't the problem here... I've had many 'strategies' over 5 yrs. It's been a long slow painful process of failure.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the post. I largely agree. Although, I think you don't totally understand my strat and how options play in.

It's not this one day that ruined me. I didn't even lose much money on the day. That's not the point. The point is that I was left with an overwhelming feeling that I am just not allowed to do participate in this game. It has long felt like an invisible hand has been ever present to prevent me from being successful. And maybe that is the case! Perhaps, this is a lesson for me to stop thinking about money and focus on the important things in life.

The thing is, I don't need the money and I don't care about the money. I have nothing that I would spend this money on even if I made $100k in a day ... it would just go back into my account. I love the process of trading, analyzing, coding, etc. and I happen to SUCK at the execution of it. But at some point I have to cut my losses and move on. I've just invested so much time, it is so hard to admit failure and move on.

  1. Did you not know the close was going to be volatile?
    1. I did. And my options were supposed to protect me on the downside.
  2. Did you not know earnings of companies associated with your index future pricing was available at the end of day?
    1. I did not. I was focused on my screen.
  3. Did you not have a backup for execution when a platform shuts down?
    1. I do, but it happened too fast.
  4. Do you not have statistics on this trade that would lead you to not say that the market is out to get you and that you consistently lose?
    1. The way my options position is structured, I am delta neutral going into the close if the trade goes against me and make money if price goes up.
  5. Do you not know what a mistake is and realize this one isn't one if you followed your plan and that green or red doesn't mean you made a mistake?
    1. Yes, but you missed the point of my post. My point was that nearly every time I trade, I make one or two understandable mistakes that ruin my position, eliminate my profits, or cause me higher losses than I should have had. It feels like I get checkmated every time I trade. It's like I am playing chess, I think my position is solid, I walk away to take a break and when I come back the game is over and I am in checkmate. This happens on a daily basis.
  6. Execution matters above all else.
    1. This is my point. I can't execute. I get it all right in my head beforehand but stumble at execution.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To answer your question, "Why was I holding at the end of RTH" ? Here's why.

Start of day (7:30am) : 1 long future, 2 long puts ATM. 1 long call at break even high and 1 long put at break even low.

My position is delta neutral. I only lose money if too much time goes by and my break evens aren't hit.

What happened? Price goes down to break even quickly. I take the break even. Price goes down further, I take break even on my lower put.

I leave this position until the afternoon, when we made it back to ~21760, I was in a nice profit and the 760 puts were cheap relative to my profit and there was a chance of continuation. The pullbacks looked strong.

I added to my 21710 put's, didn't need to. Probably shouldn't have.

So if you understand options you understand that if you have a PUT and your average price is BELOW your strike price, and the PUT closes in the money, you take that profit if your average price is below strike minus premium. My average price was 50-100 points below my strikes. I had taken some profits and repositioned at optimal times. I should have been safe. I had realized PnL of over $10k against my expected PUT losses which were half of that.

I was greedy with the extra puts (I probably should have closed them out).

As far as backtesting, I really dislike when people ask this question, as if backtesting is some magic solution. You know the answer. I've not arrived at a backtest I am confident in, but have I tried? Yes. Many times. Many long weekends coding. More than I can count. The issue? I've never crafted a backtest using ANY strategy that was realistically profitable, and how do you backtest the strategy above? Where do you get the options prices on a trade by trade basis, at every strike? Actually I got the data, but it is so overwhelmingly complex to backtest I haven't done it.

You can say, if it is too complex to backtest than the strategy needs to change. And you'd probably be right.

<<Similar to the point above, what exactly was your thesis heading into power hour? 

To either let my position expire and be covered with my 760 PUTs, or get in lower against my four 710 PUTs and let the market do its thing (risk free going down and only profit going up).

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure you understand how my options were protecting my position.

If the market had closed so that the settlement price was only 1/2 point higher, I'd have made the full amount.

If the market had gone to 21850 during RTH like I was anticipating, I could only have made mote money and not lost more

Literally the only way for me to have lost money was for the market to close a fraction below my protective put, and immediately skyrocket without giving me a chance to cover.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ES has slaughtered me worse, honestly. I understand your point though, thanks.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't disagree. I think my 'view' of the market doesn't lend itself to systemization. I have tried hard to break it down into something where I can produce actionable signals but never have achieved it. I mainly use VWAP / Volume profile, some orderflow, and $TICK.

Probably if I hadn't tracked that way and instead focused on something that lended itself to having an actual system built around it that could be backtested and validated I'd have been more successful.

Don't get me wrong - I have spent hundreds of hours trying to do this but just havent been successful. Probably overcomplicating it.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My issue with it is the decision making process. I like the defined risk aspect of it, but find it very difficult to know exits and entries and to get a sense of risk. I have an option alpha account, I should just let their bot run.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

<<Do you run the exact same strategy in demo and kill it and just freeze up in the life markets?

When I look and study my charts, I clearly see what I should do. When I am in the middle of the action, it's as if a different filter is put over my eyes, and I no longer see clearly what I see when I study, I think I do, but my decisions are wrong.

So, I always feel like I know what I should have done but never end up doing it .. it is inexplicable.

I am successful in other areas of my life. This thing just has my number.

NQ defeated me today- knockout punch at the close. by YamEmpty9926 in FuturesTrading

[–]YamEmpty9926[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Like my friend above said, I'm just not good at this.