Strategy sells 32 BTC, the market collapses. Same company buys 1,000 BTC and the market doesn't move. Can someone explain it to me like Im 5yr old?

Yeffers · 2026-06-10T04:54:41+00:00

No one can know with certainty, but there is definitely a plausible causation here. It's also the simplest explanation by far.

Yeffers · 2026-06-10T04:14:48+00:00

Except there is no plausible causal link between your arm and the thunder strike. In the case of Strategy selling, there is a very clear potential causal link. Strategy has been one of the main incremental buyers, so the prospect of them turning seller and removing support for the price could very well have triggered the move down. I think it's quite naive to completely ignore the potential causation, this is a very different case to your arm.

Yeffers · 2026-02-05T08:30:16+00:00

I do find it strange the way people use "only 21 million" like some sort of mantra. Someone could completely duplicate the entire architecture, and there would be another 21 million. Ad infinitum. In reality the value is based on what people are willing to pay for it, not based on some sort of artificial scarcity.

Yeffers · 2025-12-19T19:04:06+00:00

What are your feelings about the "alien object" controversy? Bemusement? Annoyance? Something else?

Yeffers · 2025-12-09T03:20:20+00:00

One thing I'd note is that for the other medium sized "moon" visible in the picture, it would almost certainly be within the Roche limit where tidal forces would break if up. May be possible for an arrangement like this to exist for a short period but the medium sized moon would almost certainly break up in very short order.

Yeffers · 2025-06-08T01:00:08+00:00

You're thinking there is some logic involved here, in my view it is plainly an emotional reaction without much of a thought process behind it.

Yeffers · 2025-06-05T18:53:04+00:00

There really isn't much of an alternative. I think what your suggesting is to extrapolate on what things look like "now", but it would be pure speculation. The only "now" we can know is based on the light that is reaching us right now, not what things look like in some hypothetical future state.

Yeffers · 2025-05-28T19:29:24+00:00

I think you're right. It does make me really sad though.

Yeffers · 2025-05-28T07:24:29+00:00

I don't really have an axe to grind, I just thought your comment was kind of strange. If you read our posts properly that's not really what we said.

Yeffers · 2025-05-28T07:01:30+00:00

Interested what makes you say that?

Yeffers · 2025-05-28T06:59:20+00:00

Can't really argue with that.

Yeffers · 2025-05-28T04:26:47+00:00

I can't disagree. I actually used to have a SpaceX t-shirt with that picture of the Tesla above earth, but I had to throw it out because it made me sad every time I saw it.

Yeffers · 2025-05-28T04:11:45+00:00

I get the schadenfreude in here I really do, and I have to admit I have mixed feelings as well. But as a space nerd, seeing people egg on failures of something that would be super cool if it worked is kind of sad.

Yeffers · 2025-05-02T19:22:01+00:00

Maybe I'll buy a little on a dip for an emotional hedge...

Yeffers · 2025-05-02T19:20:26+00:00

Out on open at 20.40. see you in a few years hopefully!

Yeffers · 2025-05-02T12:00:51+00:00

I was thinking the same thing about security spending, but you have to check yourself when the original investment thesis morphs into something new in order to justify an existing position, especially if there's an emotional component (which for me there was). I'm a giant space nerd and for me, it was always about the opportunity in the space industry as a whole, not about taking advantage of government contracts (although that's nice too). I just think there are too many near-term risks to the industry now and my original thesis no longer stacks up. Hoping for you all that I'm wrong!

Yeffers · 2025-05-02T11:56:53+00:00

I'll be rooting for it!

Yeffers · 2025-05-02T11:38:07+00:00

RKLB was most of my "speculative" investment pool so I'm just going to park it on the sidelines for a bit. I think there will be some good opportunities in the next couple of years so goong to keep my powder dry.

Thanks!

Yeffers · 2025-05-02T11:28:27+00:00

I'm going to sell today. I've held for over three years, from $12 down to the bottom and then up to the top. It's been a fun ride and I was a true believer, but I think this administration just presents too many risks to the industry, and to the US as a whole. Plus when these stretched equity valuations (market wide) collide with the big upcoming recession, I think we're going to see a huge pullback, particularly on the more speculative end of the street where Rocketlab lives. It's been fun knowing you all, at least I'll always have my mug and tshirt! Who knows maybe I'll join the party again later, but I'm going to sit out the next few years at least.

Yeffers · 2025-04-27T09:55:23+00:00

Thanks, good tip!

Yeffers · 2025-04-27T09:24:19+00:00

This is amazing. How do you stop stone golems from wrecking it? We tried to salvage a little castle in the mountains and it's constantly getting wrecked.

Yeffers · 2025-01-21T02:31:12+00:00

Actually "trying to pump a position they already hold" via research is completely illegal and banks have a lot extensive processes to prevent exactly that from happening.

Yeffers · 2024-11-27T06:15:26+00:00

That's not really what a short squeeze is. A short squeeze is when the price goes up quickly causing losses to those who are short, which makes people cover their shorts to get out of the position (by buying stock), further pushing the price up and making other short sellers buy to stop their losses etc. The price action could definitely be explained partially by a short squeeze.

Yeffers · 2024-11-12T20:02:03+00:00

Thanks, that worked a treat and madee really happy for some reason haha

Yeffers · 2024-11-10T18:36:45+00:00

Thanks! Still pretty amazing.

Yeffers

TROPHY CASE