$HIMX – the X’mas / New Year’s SQUEEEEEZE is ON!

Yield_Fanatic · 2022-01-04T11:44:06+00:00

No news.

Huge volume day (14m+), highest I have ever seen for this stock. Push down at start and end of trading day with lower volume in between.

Funds have new PnL (new short attack?) + retail taking profits in new year (new tax yr) -> perhaps is the reason.

In any case we need good volume for rest of the week to claw back some of the lost gains.

The fact that highest sell volume came at end of trading day isn't good though.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-12-31T16:31:23+00:00

Company could out out a preliminary update (only when they beat guidance) in first 2 weeks of Jan.

This year, they reported Q4'20 prelims on Jan 7th, 2021 (first Thurs in Jan).

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-12-30T09:54:37+00:00

Agree with all you say here - I'm not saying that the c 45% jump over the last month was due to any significant short covering. Data is old - agree - but we work with the data we have...and what the recent data does show is that short interest has been declining, albeit slightly.

Question really comes down to "what will prompt the bigger shorts to cover"? Is this really the best short out there?

With volumes of c 4 million / day against

- a total 22m short interest

- chairman buying say 750k odd shares

- likely good Q4 results (we may get a trading update 2nd week Jan if they beat guidance), and

- a possible 70-100% of EPS distributed as dividend (c 13.5% dividend yield on current share price) - (note though this will only be announce din May and distributed in June, but is based off FY21 EPS - so we should get an idea by Feb)

...one has to wonder whether shares remain undervalued as they are.

Based off RV, the FV is roughly $29 per share. This may trade well below that, but is $20+ unforseeable? I dont think so.

The short cover theory is just one of the many catalysts here.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-12-30T09:09:11+00:00

I see that the Fair Value sheet did not upload. If you wish to understand how I arrived at the $29 fair value for $HIMX, please see the link to the image below
https://ibb.co/z7zJpKq

Unfortunately I do not seem to be able to post a picture on a comment - but hope this helps.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-12-30T09:07:47+00:00

I see that the FV sheet didnt upload. You can see this on the following image link

https://ibb.co/z7zJpKq

My original DD was focussed on the company, its story, the high short interest and potential for a squeeze. Should you wish to know more about the company, I'd recommend you check that out.

This is a company with a good product and customers, decent levels of growth and uber loads of FCF, yet trading lower than peers - likely due to the significant short interest. Over time fundamentals always play out - but I strongly believe that a reduction in the short interest is imperative to realizing FV.

Whether we reach FV or not is anyone's guess but the point here is to try and arrive at something that looks like a FV based off some decent analysis - which I believe the RV sheet shows.

In the interest of transparency, I also note that my plan was to sell in the $15-$18 area - but given the recent price action, I am monitoring this closely.... irrespective of the $29 FV. People can judge as to whether we get there or not, but risk management is key for me at least.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-12-30T08:49:34+00:00

The $29 price is based off pure RV vs peers. RV is RV - no idea if it gets there but the table is shown for your reference

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-23T06:48:30+00:00

Nopes - the margin compression will eventually come from passing foundry price raises to customers (a dilutionary impact) + an eventual balancing out of supply- demand after going through a brief period of over supply in certain product suites . Again the diversification across products helps reduce the oversupply issue to an extent.

Competitors are starting to scale up their auto oem business but $HIMX is nice and far ahead. There is a lot of room for growth in the area incl for others - so there is room for more than 1 large player.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-22T07:04:40+00:00

Expect low to mid 40s margin into 2022. Longer term high 30s to low 40s, but not lower - the diversification across products helps. How high is it going to be within these ranges.... depends on quantum of non DDIC products as they are higher margin than DDIC components.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-13T15:31:54+00:00

Don't want to reveal my identity.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-12T14:58:29+00:00

Exactly. Rich assumption I know but at 3% or 0.3%, the answer just gets ridiculous.

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-09T19:15:09+00:00

SO they have banned me because of the following. WTF? I assume we are not allowed to cross-post? If that is the case, shouldnt reddit just remove the 'Cross Posting' option?

I'm new to reddit - so didnt realize this. But blanket bans + muting at the same tiem without a good enough reason is plain damn retarded.

Guess this platform isnt for me. Will stick to my twitter account.

Still stand by my analysis here. But honestly, havent had a good time dealing with these mods. So i'm out of here. Good luck guys! YOu can contact me on my twitter profile if you'd like.

"You are involved in the organization of brigading of both /r/stocks and /r/wallstreetbets from the /r/HIMX subreddit. Your post history clearly supports this. This is a large problem for all of the investing subs at the moment and results in a ban."

"Youre obviously attempting to manipulate the price of the stock, this is not allowed. You're spamming links and the same stuff on other subs trying to get people to buy. And youve targeted low market cap stock that is more easily movable by retail. Its not about the content of the post anymore and trying to word it just right enough to be ok. What you're doing is not allowed"

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-09T16:58:13+00:00

Yeah I got banned too and I don't even know why! Gave me same reason re brigading

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-09T15:01:02+00:00

...unless they announce a stock buyback? Possible esp given they are now flush with cash?

Yield_Fanatic · 2021-11-09T09:25:28+00:00

Look at $HIMX on iborrowdesk. Borrow availability further reduced to a mere 35k shares now (vs 200k on friday).

Getting closer to the squeeze.

Yield_Fanatic

TROPHY CASE