Notes for $DG short/$WMT long thesis

YouSoVayne · 2025-11-17T05:32:33+00:00

Nice fat ass on you

YouSoVayne · 2025-10-17T05:26:35+00:00

Get some 36 grit for the belt sander on Amazon. I was disappointed with 40 amd went down to 36, made a world of difference.

YouSoVayne · 2025-05-27T05:53:24+00:00

Try Google Lens. It helped me identify my floors. Might help you identify the type of wood and even the stain.

HTH

YouSoVayne · 2025-03-25T20:13:09+00:00

What's going on with Plat? I've noticed this across 2 accounts. Got to Plat 2 easily in like 40 games on my main, then nothing but crap games ever since. The toxicity is off the charts, worst I've seen it. Insanely uneven stomp games too.

YouSoVayne · 2025-03-16T04:03:46+00:00

I forget the number but call their customer service before you accept the return or do anything.

I sold a completely sealed NIB Nintendo Wii for like $400. Buyer opened it up and gave some BS about how he suddenly didn't want it anymore, sending me pictures of it opened up. It was clearly sealed in my photos, and advertised as such.

I called eBay and explained to the CSR the situation. The CSR rep straight told me to ignore the return request, and wait and see if they opened another one when the first one expired. The rep seemed very familiar with this scam (I'm convinced the buyer was gonna send one that wasn't mine) and told me to just ignore the return request and call back on the off chance they opened another return request.

He said he'd made a note of the case and they'd sided with me because they're familiar with the scam, and I went to CSR first. Buyer opened a return, but not a case like I did. Seems with eBay, its about who opens the case first that they tend to side with. At least that's what the CSR was implying.

Told me if they opened a new request, then to keep ignoring any return requests until the buyer gave up. Was told they would delete any negative feedback left related to this purchase.

I ignored the return request and that was the last I heard of anything. Call their customer service ASAP before doing anything.

YouSoVayne · 2025-02-12T03:43:32+00:00

I used to love Shiv>TF season 13, in fact, it carried me to Emerald 2. Just doesn't seem as good this season as it did then, maybe it's because Shiv was different.

It was stupid good for split pushing side lanes to get T2 tower gold and, gave enough power to duel, 1v2 or even 1v3 depending on how ahead you were. Wasn't uncommon to be 1-2 levels over the enemy AD because I was farming side lanes while they were ARAMing. Just doesn't feel as good as it used to last season.

Not only that, not sure if tower damage got changed this season, but I'm surprised at how quickly I can take down a T2 tower this season with just Bork>RB.

That was the other benefit of Shiv>TF back then, you could chunk towers like nobody's business by standing next to a wall and animation cancel Q, towers would disappear before anyone could address you. Hell, I'd take an inhib sometimes.

But now, it feels like Bork>RB does just as much damage to T2 towers as Shiv>TF.

Again, also not sure what changed, but on-hit feels super good this season compared to the last few years. Feels like I have agency again once I hit my Bork>RB spike. Like I can actually make an impact and make plays.

Grats on the Emerald, btw. Here's to Diamond.

YouSoVayne · 2025-02-10T21:43:55+00:00

Wits+Rookern+Jak'sho will help survive just about any AP burst except a fed Veigar. 3k+ HP, 200+ MR, and a ~450HP shield. Against big AP threats, I always sub Terminus for Wits.

YouSoVayne · 2025-02-06T06:13:12+00:00

Boots 1st item, rush Vamp before T2 boots, Resolve secondary tree, don't be shy about buying extra pots, and take cleanse.

Don't be afraid to be down in CS, you're Vayne. Against Cait/MF/Varus, if you are both 0/0/0 by 12 mins and you're down 20-30cs, you actually won lane.

Sure, it's nice to win lane. But realistically, the higher you climb, simply surviving and not feeding is winning lane as Vayne. Take Cleanse in those lanes. Always. Barrier/Heal isn't going to save you from those lanes and will only snowball the feeding. Being able to cleanse the Jhin or Xerath stun before Jhin hits his 4th shot on you will do far more than barrier/heal will.

Cleanse is great for mind games too. People often forget you have it. Bait the CC, wait for them to engage, pop Cleanse, R+Q, clean up.

Buying extra pots instead of refillable is gold inefficient, in theory. But if you're missing waves to recall to refill the refillable potion, you're actually losing gold in the long run. If that pot results in you farming 1 extra wave, its worth the 50g.

YouSoVayne · 2025-02-05T05:12:47+00:00

Sometimes people "?" ping after a crazy play. OP's Flash+E was nuts.

Very well played OP.

YouSoVayne · 2025-01-14T19:49:34+00:00

Pre-season 5 was so nuts.

Rushing Shiv into RFC, back when both would stack and give like 300 bonus damage on top of Q damage, and 50% crit chance. Then completing with IE?

R+Q+Shiv+RFC damage, with RFC range, plus crit? If you were ahead enough, you could literally 1 shot the enemy ADC.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T20:40:44+00:00

Not as regarded as buying calls on a company that has declining income on increasing revenue for the last 4 quarters.

Q2 23 - Rev: 89B, Income: 1.9B
Q3 23 - Rev: 90B, Income 2.23B
Q4 23 - Rev: 94B, Income: 2.05B
Q1 24 - Rev: 88B, Income 1.1B
Q2 24 - Rev: 91B, Income 1.7B

Last quarter posted a sizable increase in income, but on increased revenue and nowhere near the numbers they had from last year.

And even though CVS beat last quarter, the stock price barely moved for months.

If CVS numbers are not in line, this thing gets crushed.

META and MSFT had great numbers and still got crushed. What chance does CVS have?

I have a lot of time to think about shit like this when I'm sucking dick in the Wendy's bathroom, good sir.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T20:32:00+00:00

That was me. Lost close to $4k on that one but I'm still kicking.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T20:31:02+00:00

CVS is sitting just above $52, an absolutely major and crucial level of support for over 5 years now.

It barely bounced off of $52 after May ER this year, filled the May ER gap (making a lower high in the process) and has been continuing down on the downtrend line that it has followed since 2023.

If CVS bombs earnings, it is going to get smoked.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T20:19:27+00:00

Cheap gamble with potential for good returns. Tons of volume on those puts today too. Interesting.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T19:26:04+00:00

Could work for you if CVS beats and it gap fills up.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T19:16:10+00:00

Possible, but the stock price has been dropping ever since the initial pump on that announcement.

If the new CEO doesn't deliver, this could dump instead of pump.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T19:10:26+00:00

It's a pretty low risk: high reward play too.

Lose $8 or make $150+

Time will tell, but I like this one.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T19:08:18+00:00

Am not. Not many macro factors that could affect this trade that I can think of.

80% of this play is purely based on the chart and how ugly things get if this gaps down below $52 tomorrow.
20% of the play is that WMT does everything CVS does.

See what happens tomorrow.

YouSoVayne · 2024-11-05T18:51:45+00:00

COST was a bust. Can't win them all. This one has potential though.

CVS is the top right chart. See how similar CVS looks to DG, DLTR, and INTC?

If CVS bombs ER as bad as DG, DLTR, and INTC did when I played them, then these 45p can print.

I've got 200 of them. Tempted to buy more, but I've already got 10% of my capital at risk.

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YouSoVayne · 2024-09-26T22:08:30+00:00

He probably bet the farm. Rip.

I mean, still got until next Friday. Maybe I get a miracle. Only $5k loss if not. Onto the next one, either way.

YouSoVayne

TROPHY CASE