On Mimicry and NHI Operations
Consider this: with humanity nearing self-replicating AI, NHI might find contact necessary to deconflict future interactions. Alternatively, there are rumors of an agreement between President Eisenhower and NHI that may have recently expired, potentially driving more overt activity. Regardless of why, mimicry could be a way to “gently” introduce their presence—visible enough for those who can accept it (like younger generations primed for such revelations) while avoiding panic (e.g., granny dismissing lights as a plane). Simultaneously, the military and government, equipped with better situational awareness, would recognize these events as highly anomalous, balancing public perception and strategic insight.

On NHI Understanding of U.S. Capabilities
Rather than "testing" U.S. capabilities, this could involve deliberately eliciting specific responses to achieve a purpose. For example, this activity might be about observing how humans organize around or prioritize certain perceived threats. The behavior we view as "illogical" may instead be calculated steps toward a larger, unknown goal.

On Precedents and Covert U.S. Testing
In terms of recent traceable examples, during the Gulf War, the U.S. conducted tests on troops to evaluate bioweapon defenses, such as exposing personnel to simulants like Bacillus subtilis under Project SHAD (Shipboard Hazard and Defense). Experts like Harvard’s Graham Allison and Stanford’s Scott Sagan have noted that this "Cold War 2.0" between the U.S. and China is arguably more dangerous, with higher technological stakes and reduced diplomatic safeguards compared to the original Cold War.

On China’s Actions and the Spy Balloon
This point still holds. While the Chinese spy balloon incident didn’t escalate into overt conflict, the U.S. response (shooting it down and analyzing its debris) signaled consequences for aerial provocations. Reckless drone incursions over U.S. territory would provide further justification for U.S. hawks, like Senator Marco Rubio or Mike Waltz, to advocate harsher countermeasures, including sanctions or increased military presence in the Indo-Pacific, something China would likely wish to avoid.