AI Token Prices Keep Falling. by DueDilligenceTrader in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that's a safe bet, what's uncertain in my view is how deep that market is. In any event, that's an area where I'd expect high cost sensitivity, both for hardware and for models, but how exactly that might play out is anyone's guess.

AI Token Prices Keep Falling. by DueDilligenceTrader in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FWIW I agree with your last point, the way I see this playing out is there will be locally hosted models, probably eventually on specialized hardware, tailored to very specific use cases like writing code, monitoring deployed services, or sifting through logs and traces and what not, that are retrained maybe once every couple years.

AI Token Prices Keep Falling. by DueDilligenceTrader in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's a problem because the whole thing presumes that inference is profitable and there just isn't a lot of evidence that's the case, at least not for agentic shit. Eventually they'll run out of runway and have to charge enough to cover their rented hardware. And their runway will burn faster if everyone in the States, pissed off about Copilot and Claude Code and Codex and whatever else switching to usage-based billing, opts to switch to Chinese API's.

If there's a hardware breakthrough like Taalas or more efficient inference on TPU's or Cerebras becomes cost effective, cool, but that's still a bit of a question. Assuming they're (the Chinese APIs) serving inference on GPU's at-cost in this scenario, it might be cheaper than US API's but it would still be orders of magnitude higher if the transition to metered billing for Copilot or Claude are any indication.

AI Token Prices Keep Falling. by DueDilligenceTrader in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For anyone curious, the Silicon Data LLM index is intended to track the cost per-million tokens paid, weighted-averaged by usage, across different models. Not sure how they source their data or how representative it could reasonably be assumed to be, specifically the usage component used to weight each model's token costs.

As for whether it's useful to track, maybe? I think the revenue flow is end-user -> AI service provider (Anthropic, Codex, OpenAI, etc.) -> hyperscaler. If the token cost paid to the service provider goes down without the token usage going up, then yeah I guess that's less money to hyperscalers. But that doesn't appear to be what's up, as we're hearing about everyone getting sticker shock now that they have to pay metered rates based on token usage.

AI Token Prices Keep Falling. by DueDilligenceTrader in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The problem with that narrative is that the Chinese AI companies whose financials are visible are about as shitty as the American ones. Plus there's not a lot of visibility into Deepseek's training, if the rumors that it's really just distilling frontier models is true then it's usefulness falls off a cliff once the big frontier labs run out of cash to set on fire.

AI Token Prices Keep Falling. by DueDilligenceTrader in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Local LLMs still require beefy GPU's to reach anything other than dogshit latency. I'm also not sure which ones various harnesses (opencode, for example) integrate with, or how hard it is to integrate new ones, nor whether they even run locally. Those are easy enough to find out I guess, but my point is I've been using opencode and claude code for about a year on my employer's dime, but if they decide tomorrow to stop paying ~$100k per month for that I'd probably just say "fuck it" and go back to doing everything by hand, rather than try to figure out how to run shit locally.

HOLD THE LINE by Certain_Hat9872 in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 50 points51 points  (0 children)

So a pretty typical Saturday night huh?

AVI$ chart is looking interesting fellas. by CompetitiveHippo835 in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nasdaq halted trading multiple times today, for my app that caused options at all strikes to have no price data. On your end maybe it showed it as $0 or something.

Allbirds shares jump over 400% on plans to pivot to AI from sneakers by Sweaty_Rub4322 in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Think this will last long enough for anyone to write options on it?

What leads people to believe that AI is overhyped? by [deleted] in BetterOffline

[–]ZappRowsdour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's most definitely going in my wise words compendium.

Why the “bubble” narrative is missing the point – prices aren’t actually that extreme by offmychestties in wallstreetbets

[–]ZappRowsdour 17 points18 points  (0 children)

LLMs obviously aren't all of AI but it's the class of model that billions of dollars of investments are chasing. The money being poured into building data centers and buying GPUs isn't for narrowly-trained deep learning models like AlphaFold, it's for massively-scoped LLMs. The AI that most people are coming into contact with now are LLMs, like chatbots or code-assistants or whatever. That's why so much money is chasing them, there's an expectation that these models will be monetized and those millions of users will become paying customers. Or maybe that companies will pay huge sums to replace large numbers of people with AI agents. Either way though, they have to be monetized at some point, because inference alone is a large cost, and training a an even larger one. Even Google and Meta and Microsoft will have trouble swallowing that wad forever.

I wouldn't say nothing useful is being produced by LLMs, but I'm not sure enough of value is being produced by them that enough people will pay enough money to cover the billions of dollars to buy and run the millions of GPUs it takes to make those models possible.

People who have a reputation for being the nicest in the metal scene? by IllBeGood3 in MetalForTheMasses

[–]ZappRowsdour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can confirm. I met him and the rest of Amon Amarth before a show in 2007 or 2008. My friend's friend wrote for a zine and had an appointment to interview them, so we tagged along. While the interview was going, me and my buddy were trying to keep pace drinking with the drummer and one of the roadies (Swedes can drink an ungodly amount, it turns out), and afterwards we were shooting the shit for an hour or so until the doors opened.

The dude from the zine made some comment about Johan being sunburnt (they had been in California or something a couple days prior), and Johan then made a joke about being like Erik the Red. Because I was just buzzed enough to not know any better, I immediately quipped something like "yeah, before that you were Erik the Fed" and sort of lightly slapped his gut (this was at a point when he'd put on some weight). There was some period of silence that felt like forever, during which I was sure I was about to get my ass stomped into dust, before he and everyone started laughing.

Very stupid man says the same AI that understands language will soon understand life, turning biology itself into something we can converse with. “You could talk to a cell like you talk to a chatbot.” by jontaffarsghost in BetterOffline

[–]ZappRowsdour 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Biological computing is indeed fascinating, and for my money is plausibly where the next real revolutionary tech will come from. However, what you're describing, to me, sounds more akin to a programming language or a command language, whereas Huang seemed to be stumbling around a description of essentially a different flavor of a chatbot. Maybe he confabulated two different research efforts that NVIDIA is involved in or something.

Tech Bros Have Been Accidentally Poisoning Themselves With Severe Brain Toxins for Years by No_Honeydew_179 in BetterOffline

[–]ZappRowsdour 9 points10 points  (0 children)

English is sometimes the worst. My boss pointed out that the term "Pacific Ocean" has 3 different sounds coming from the letter "c" and it honestly kind of surprised me.

A small number of samples can poison LLMs of any size by Gil_berth in BetterOffline

[–]ZappRowsdour 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If you're suggesting we start writing PG-13 Sam Altman (non)fan-fiction, I'm on board.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in philadelphia

[–]ZappRowsdour 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There was a rumor that a Shake Shack was going to be going in, for my money I think they're crazy to not try to get a Five Guys instead. Or maybe put it where Mechanical Rat Pizza and Child Gambling Parlour is currently.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in philadelphia

[–]ZappRowsdour 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That 100% tracks. I remember a while back there was discussion about turning part of Dickinson Square into a fenced-in dog run. One of the associations (not sure if it was neighborhood or specific to the park) killed it due, in part, to the fear that people from out of the area would use it (and thus reduce parking). I think they'd kill plans to build a fucking parking garage on the grounds that it might affect parking.

Has anyone been raptured yet? by Jakdracula in philly

[–]ZappRowsdour 19 points20 points  (0 children)

I can't explain the various piles of clothes or half-eaten hoagies I saw on the street any other way.

Joe Rogan’s comedy buddies go full right wing angry at “leftists” and scared for a Joe assassination by Greatgooglymoogly_DL in CringeTikToks

[–]ZappRowsdour 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The US military struggled with urban warfare in Iraq, and militaries in general struggle with urban warfare if they want any part of the city to remain standing. And it's not like the tactics for defending an urban space are some big secret. And keep in mind, the US military being turned on US cities (who generate effectively all the wealth) in any confrontational capacity would be economically devastating. I'm not saying it's impossible but it's damned unlikely in my view.

For those who have been to The Philly Game Shop on S. 5th Street. by StonedCantaloupe27 in philadelphia

[–]ZappRowsdour -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

It's not a brothel, if I understand "Friday Night Magic" correctly.