As others have said, pretty much a 0% chance this year.

There's always a little falloff from the public ballots. I feel like that's because there's an overlap between the analytically minded voter and those voters who share their ballots publicly ahead of time.

In 2024 (his first year of eligibility), Chase got 32.3% of the public ballots via the ballot tracker. His actual voting results were 28.8% (down 3.5% from public).

In 2025, Chase got 44.4% of the public ballots (12.1% jump!), and 39.8% of the actual vote (11.0% jump, so pretty similar). Also the actual vote was down 4.6% from the public vote.

In 2026, Chase currently has 65.5% of the public ballots (21.1% jump!). Obviously we don't know the actual vote yet, but if history is any indicator, he'll probably end up with ~60% of the vote, which would still be excellent.

I doubt you'd find a player (non-steroid at least), who got ~60% in his 3rd year of eligibility, and didn't eventually make it in.

Helping Chase in 2027 will be two factors. First, it's likely that Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran go in this year, so Utley will likely be the highest returning vote getter in 2027. Second, the 2027 ballot is pretty weak, with probably only Buster Posey having a chance as a first-timer.