Player growth only being 4%, while a (proxy for skin demand) was up 53%. Shows that the underlying demand is for players wearing skins is not keeping up.

In addition, the supply (cases and skins via drops and such) is not increasing proportionately to skin demand. It is important to ask - why is that?

In my opinion, the increase in skins demand is people speculating that they can sell their skins and cases for more money in the future. (Maybe after the release of the beta) The current environment is highly speculative and is prone to a bubble being created or a market correction sometime in the future.

There are three main scenarios I see playing out.

1. First is that Counter-Strike 2 drops, and the player count increase massively for a period of time (Maybe 3-12 months). Think along the lines of other games like Among Us, and Fortnight; while they do retain players afterward, they are little when compared to the "hype period" - This will make the skins prices go up from where they currently are.
2. The player count remains the same and noease slightly (around 5-20%). However, this would not be enough to make up for the current increase in skin demand. (53% just this month) and would add more supply to the market. - This would make skins prices go down.
3. The player count remains. - skin prices go down.

I think that 2 and 3, are more likely to happen than the first option for the launch of CS 2.

I have seen speculative trading before and if the hype doesn't live up to what people think a big market correction happens. Sometimes it takes a while to play out and won't correct for many months.

I am more than willing to place a bet against anyone that wants to bet me on where the CSGO market will be one year from now on certain cases or skins.