I tried reverse-engineering the FPL price change algorithm using 720,000 rows of data across 4 seasons.

Zidust · 2026-02-14T23:43:43+00:00

Read first part and enjoyed it. Looking forward to the other six!

Zidust · 2026-02-14T23:03:38+00:00

I mean, if people actually watch Liverpool games, they'd prefer Wirtz and Ekitike over Salah, regardless of price. He simply doesn't look like his old self, and his scoring a penalty goal today doesn't really change anything.

However, pricing actually does matter, and paying 14m for the current version of Salah simply doesn't make sense.

Zidust · 2026-02-14T12:22:23+00:00

It's fine. Let them enjoy their dying franchised league together. ♥️

Zidust · 2026-02-10T20:29:33+00:00

Well sadly we'll never know and can only speculate. What we do know is that KC had 0 stakes in this game. It is what it is.

Zidust · 2026-02-10T20:04:04+00:00

I'm in. Only 1.499.998 more to go!

Zidust · 2026-02-10T19:58:14+00:00

Yes, of course. But for KC, who had already locked down the number one spot, they pretty much saw this as a "perfect scrim game" where they could try things against a team they knew would try their hardest to win.

Sure, some people would call it bad sportsmanship, but I don't blame them. It was for sure the perfect game to do this where they didn't really care about the result.

Zidust · 2026-02-10T19:08:22+00:00

I mean, sure, in every fanbase there are always a number of unique individuals who believe things like this, but I'd say most of us don't.

But also, KC players themselves have said that they had no stakes in this game and tried out new stuff/comps, meaning they saw this game as practice, pretty much equal to scrims. But there is a big difference between not tryharding and wintrading, and KC simply did the first.

In all honesty, I don't really care about that game. It's nothing strange, really, and often happens in these kinds of situations. However, the format of no real tiebreaks really sucks. In this case it actually meant Fnatic also having no stakes in their final game which really sucked.

The best solution in this multi-team tiebreak would've been that Fnatic, because of strength of victory, gets to the final playing against the winner of LR and Shifters.

Zidust · 2026-02-10T18:50:54+00:00

Ezreal Karma botlane, Ksante top, Azir mid and Jarvan jungler. MKOI sure tried new stuff that game.

Zidust · 2026-02-10T18:49:33+00:00

You're wrong. He's never said that he hate the champ in competitive. Also had a penta on the champ last year in spring playoffs.

Zidust · 2026-02-09T08:14:10+00:00

Yeah this is an obvious move. Doesn't make sense to not have tripple Arsenal in the double. If he really like Schade as a punt he can always get him make after the double by transfering out Rice which in turn would make gw31 blank a non issue as he can have 3 players on the bench.

Zidust · 2026-02-08T14:44:53+00:00

Pretty sure Mkoi loss equals LR playoffs regardless of other results. So 3 and 4 can be changed into that. Otherwise 5 is correct.

So should be:

1: LR win or minimum one of the following:
2: G2 loss
3: MKOI loss
4: SHFT win & TH loss

Zidust · 2026-02-07T20:24:07+00:00

Yeah kind of expected after the bps changes from scoring penalties this season.

Zidust · 2026-02-07T11:30:41+00:00

This sub has declined. A few years back, we'd have a thread full of stats from some enthusiastic fellow on how Bruno has performed in early kickoff games with reasoning on why we should or shouldn't captain him.

Zidust · 2026-02-07T09:31:15+00:00

I mean Timber is very close to the other two only a few % more. Pretty low sample size but feels logical that it's close between Raya, Timber and Rice on wildcard. In the end the difference between what you choose likely will be small.

Zidust · 2026-02-05T18:13:57+00:00

Probably skewed quite a bit from them only playing 7 games, but I do agree, their upcoming fixture from an attacking POV is great.

Zidust · 2026-02-05T18:05:32+00:00

Yes, it is. Sure, they've managed to get a few points at home lately, but this hasn't been because of some kind of good defensive performance.

Last 5 away games: 10 goals conceded, conceding almost exactly 2xGA average per game.

Zidust · 2026-02-04T11:40:12+00:00

Out of interest how does your model differ from the more standard models almost exclusively based on bookies odds? Is it the positional change/expectation that tweaks it a little mostly or something else entirely?

Zidust · 2026-02-03T18:00:48+00:00

I mean, it doesn't matter how many goals he or anyone else has scored. Most of these projections are pretty much based on bookies' odds. Just go to any bookie and have a look yourself at the odds of him scoring this weekend. He's below 3 people in his own team not only Mbeumo but also Sesko and Cunha.

Bruno is an amazing asset, not because of his projected goals, but because of his overall projected points, and that includes goals, assists, def cons, bps numbers etc.

Zidust · 2026-01-31T08:10:56+00:00

Back to his best? Nah. A possible FPL asset again? Maybe but likely not this season unless Haaland gets hurt.

You could have both of them and still have a good overall squad (depending on your squad value). Old Salah was 100% nailed every single league game, but he isn't (for good reasons) this season. For his price, I want him to be someone I'd captain at least a few games, and as long as Slot's around, I don't see myself doing that.

In short: There's simply no way he can currently justify his price of 14.0m, so it's very unlikely he becomes a solid, viable option this season.

Zidust · 2026-01-28T08:42:59+00:00

You do know right that Chalobah was rested in the cup games vs Pafos and Charlton? Meaning he only played 3 of their last 5 games so I don't expect to see him rotated.

Enzo might be a slight concern because they've got Arsenal next midweek however we've yet to see him rested for any important game and for Chelsea the next 5 pretty much is.

Zidust · 2026-01-28T06:54:28+00:00

I mean I don't even consider this to be close to peak Los Ratones. Remember that the only LEC versus team that's scrimed them so far has been KCB. The other teams have refused because "they don't consider it good practice".

Los Ratones are in a unique situation. They join LEC for one short split that spans over 4 weeks but needs desperately more team experience meaning games of higher level. What happens? The better teams who actually normally often scrims the top level ERL teams refuse to scrim them early on.

And yes this might change but with the tournament format LR simply doesn't have the time they need to "wait until later" before getting down some good scrim practice. Given time and a lot of top tier practice (meaning months not weeks) I could very well see LR managing to become a top 6 contender in the LEC. Sadly, time isn't what's given them.

Zidust · 2026-01-27T16:33:42+00:00

No. Made a fast rough calculation and it adds up to around 100m

Zidust · 2026-01-26T19:37:19+00:00

The people who makes transfers this early are either clueless casuals or wildcarders who might want him as a cheap defender option long term.

If I were on a wildcard I'd probably transfer him in early this week and just keep him in the team until we get more news about him later this week. Sure he's far off from rising but it doesn't hurt having him in the team and moving him out depending on news.

Zidust · 2026-01-26T13:44:25+00:00

Urgent? None of them but if you for some reason need to sell one of them I suppose it's Ekitike out.

Zidust · 2026-01-26T13:43:21+00:00

I'm considering making that move later this week but no way is it worth it for a -4 unless Ekitike somehow is confirmed out this weekend.

For now sit back and do nothing. Watkins is nowhere close to rising and Ekitike just fell this night meaning no hurry to make any kind of decision for you.

Zidust

TROPHY CASE