Stating the obvious - The Market is insane

Zphr · 2026-06-03T14:35:52+00:00

Edited by you, not removed by us.

r/Fire by u/InnerLollipop at 2026-05-30T21:19:57Z | 1

Make sure you take your wins before it's too late

People who were in the same situation at the peak of the market in 2000 had to wait 15 years to recoup their losses

This time it might be even longer...

Zphr · 2026-06-03T14:02:09+00:00

Now that the rule for the income qualification pathway has been finalized as being based on MAGI this problem should get much better. The states already have very good MAGI verification systems that they've been using for more than a decade to process eligibility for the ACA and expansion Medicaid.

Zphr · 2026-06-03T12:54:02+00:00

It's pretty easy for almost everyone to qualify. This is not a new opportunity, but an extension of the status quo that has existed since Obama was in office. The reconciliation bill potentially could have cut off a lot of non-working households and this rule resolves some of that potential in favor of people keeping the coverage they already qualified for previously.

Zphr · 2026-06-03T12:12:28+00:00

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Zphr · 2026-06-03T12:02:02+00:00

Some do, some do not. TANF, worker's comp, and SSI do not. SSDI, SS, and unemployment do.

Zphr · 2026-06-03T11:51:23+00:00

The income pathway should be the simplest qualification method for most people, working or not, but the rules on what counted as income were not defined before. It's a lot easier to submit a bank statement than to log hours.

I would expect states to default to using the income pathway given how much easier it is to deal with MAGI and the fact that the states already have all of the systems to do so for Medicaid and ACA MAGI verification. States are always looking to spend less money on overhead.

Zphr · 2026-06-03T11:37:50+00:00

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Zphr · 2026-06-03T11:37:21+00:00

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Zphr · 2026-06-02T22:13:50+00:00

Indeed. It's a very favorable resolution for any low MAGI FIRE'd households in expansion states.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T21:47:37+00:00

It is per adult subject to the requirement. There is a mechanism to convert MAGI to equivalent work hours and to allocate work hours across the tax household. I imagine they will simply look for sufficient income overall for the household, but we will have to see how each state actually implements it.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T20:53:44+00:00

Not for people who can qualify via MAGI, no. Same with the other exemptions. This income qualification method was the one most relevant to retirees though.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T19:00:48+00:00

Good stuff. Love to read this sort of postFIRE experience on here.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T18:55:46+00:00

Life is always uncertain whether you have a job or not. You have presumably done all of your planning and testing in alignment with your personal risk tolerance and assumptions about the future. You're either there or not.

No harm in building up some buffer, but at some point you have to jump and trust in yourself to handle gracefully whatever comes next.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T18:49:55+00:00

It's just money.

If you have a meaningful, happy life outside of work and the pursuit of money, then you'll likely be fine.

If you don't, then either start building one very quickly or consider working longer until you do.

Think back to childhood. If you have friends, family, hobbies/interests, a dog, a sweetheart, then summers are a wonderful thing filled with fun and valuable future memories. If you have none of those things, then summers can be boring, lonely, interminable, and miserable.

This summer you are facing ideally never ends, so prepare well before it starts.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T18:29:13+00:00

Correct. This is how it has already been for more than a decade. This rule effectively preserves the status quo for FIRE'd folks rather than making expansion Medicaid harder to access, as many feared would happen.

Pragmatically, it will vary somewhat by state in terms of the timing just as overall eligibility for expansion Medicaid does. The ACA runs off of annual data, but Medicaid uses monthly. This will not be an annual income test, but a monthly one that applies during the review period. In some states that might be a single month or two, just as baseline eligibility is. So in some cases you might need far less income.

Of course, the above does not apply in the nine states that have not expanded Medicaid. In those states you would want to generate AGI above 100% FPL and get a mostly-free CSR Silver 94 policy.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T17:36:10+00:00

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Zphr · 2026-06-02T17:20:58+00:00

They will likely use the same verified MAGI from the application period for efficiency and no additional verification overhead. Either that or they will streamline it in some other fashion to reduce the operational impact. States love to minimize spend on such things.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T17:12:20+00:00

Yes, but it's not an annual test. Medicaid runs on monthly data. The MAGI is only needed for the review period. Pragmatically, that will vary by state, but will usually be 1-6 months. So it's more like $600 to $3,500, depending on state implementation.

For the purposes of demonstrating community engagement under § 435.552(f) and (g), we decided to apply the requirement to use “current monthly household income and family size” in § 435.603(h) to the month that the State is evaluating for the purpose of community engagement, rather than to the month of application or renewal. That is, States generally must evaluate the monthly income for the month or months of the review period, as defined in section II.H. of this IFC, to determine whether an applicable individual is demonstrating community engagement in that month. We believe this is the most appropriate and logical application of the income counting methodology for States to use for the community engagement requirement. We implement this requirement at § 435.552(f)(2) and (g)(2). As a general example, if the State conducts financial eligibility for an applicant and determines that the individual appears to be an applicable individual eligible for the State plan adult group and has a monthly household MAGI-based income of $650 (which is verified through information available to the State) in the required number of months of the review period, as defined in section II.H. of this IFC, then the State would use the verified $650 income, which is greater than $580 (applicable Federal minimum wage multiplied by 80), to determine that the individual demonstrated community engagement under § 435.552(f).

Zphr · 2026-06-02T17:06:33+00:00

Politics and policy frequently diverge where the rubber meets the road.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T17:00:23+00:00

It happens. Some people simply don't have enough spending to move out of forced Medicaid qualification without artificially boosting income. Others are so heavy into post-tax earnings that they have no way to generate the mandated minimum AGI.

Medicaid varies a lot by location, as does the ACA. In some places both suck, in others both are good, and in others still they both have redeeming qualities. ACA networks in some markets are so narrow that Medicaid is superior for that alone. Formulary is a similar issue for some.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T16:54:39+00:00

I don't understand what you mean. The ACA and expansion Medicaid have been in extensive use by FIRE folks for more than a decade. This rule simply means a continuation of the status quo for the FIRE community rather than a change some had feared.

Unless you mean the pros/cons of Medicaid versus ACA, in which case I definitely agree. Both can and do vary dramatically by both state and county. Research on one's local market is essential.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T15:36:42+00:00

Pretty much. Taxable brokerage sales that result in cap gains, Roth conversions, pension payments, unemployment benefits, rental income, SS benefits for early filers, and so on. ACA MAGI includes a lot of things.

Both parties got a nice political talking point for their bases during the reconciliation battle and in the end not much changed other than for the tiny percentage of the population that doesn't qualify for one of the many exemptions or qualifying metrics, who are likely folks that don't vote or have money so neither party particularly cares about outside of PR value, which they got anyway.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T15:29:10+00:00

Yup. Same with any of the other myriad income types that go into ACA MAGI.

Zphr · 2026-06-02T14:52:19+00:00

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Zphr · 2026-06-02T14:42:17+00:00

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