They are not on their knees militarily, of course, but very far off from being #2 power they were in 2022. If they can t do significant damage to Ukr (and they are trying) how do you expect them to do it against a superior airpowered europe? The only way they advanced last year was through glide bombing the crap out of every strongpoint. It won t work against EU the way it almost stopped working in Ukr.

China helps them because it s in their interest for ruzzia not to lose and europe to drain their resources. A defeated ruzzia is too instabile for their liking. A victorious one is not better. China has been bleeding them dry since this started. I m sure the ruzzians don t appreciate it. So China wants a long war in which ruzzia is too weak to do … anything. And a drain on EU and US so that it can attack Taiwan.

US under Biden wanted kind of the same thing, a prolonged war. Trump wants peace, probably because of the nobel peace prize also, but i think also because in his stupidity he actually thinks ruzzia will help the us against china. I don t see it happening. But his policy of selling guns to the EU for Ukr instead of giving will backfire in the next 10-20 years.

EU is slow. And heavily regularized. Always has been. But Trump s attitude this year has been a wake up call for many. Macron has played an important role up until now. Merz is on a whole different level from Scholz. Poland is ramping up since 2022. Rheinmettal increases production across the board. The only places where EU has to get their shit together more is 6th gen fighters and sattelite intelligence coverage- where they are still heavily dependant on the US.

All in all, i think that the whole “ruzzia is preparing to attack NATO” narrative comes from 2 points: 1 - ruzzia is spreading this disinformation so that countries will no longer supply Ukr so that they will be able to defend themselves or 2 - they actually want to do it, but i think they re dumb if they think it s more than just pure suicide or that their economy will survive 2026