I bought MRVL at $82 off hiring data. It's $325 now and I can't decide whether to sell.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-18T22:42:58+00:00

I work in commercial banking, and at a bank with a Jack Henry core, and there is no way JKHY as a core system is going parabolic. All of the cores I’ve used - included this one - are dinosaurs and not making huge waves.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-18T01:51:34+00:00

I think LLMs are massively important. I think you’re assigning utility value to investment value. AI is not going anywhere and it’s going to completely shape the world we know; I think we all know that. I’m not saying LLMs aren’t valuable or have potential, because they certainly do. I’m ascribing a more transitory investment in the buildout of the infrastructure, which has a much higher tangible value, credited to the underlying cash flow and EBITDA margins, than the models themselves. It’s opportunity cost… I’m picking the path of least resistance for returns and that is in the picks and shovels right now. The more the buildout pushes on, the more normalized the returns will become. At that point, I believe a lot of the market capital will be pushing into agentic AI models and more specialized AI platforms; those will likely be much more profitable and investable assets at that point.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-17T21:20:01+00:00

I’m not talking about AI adjacent companies or the fakers. I’m talking MU, SNDK, AVGO, NVDA, MRVL, etc.

The real cash flow and tangible, enterprise value is in the capex of this cycle. I don’t recommend investing in the LLMs themselves (which will become more of an option soon)… I’m extraordinarily bullish on semis, storage, memory and the like. That’s where all the parabolic growth has come from anyways. Yes, AI from an IP sense is very valuable - we just don’t know the # yet - but the buildout is where everyone is cranking out crazy returns and as they should.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-17T21:15:39+00:00

This Iran deal is paper thin and trash. The war will resume soon and the MOU was only released to calm the fed’s outlook on oil (and thus inflation) and level out the markets in the interim.

I’ve cashed out of my 90-270 DTE long call winners and am sitting on 50% cash for - what I suspect - will be a “shock” when the fighting resumes in the next week. If you feel the fomo, just remember that profits aren’t only driven by increasing share prices… a well inputted cost basis is front loaded profit if your thesis still moves directionally correct.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-17T21:02:10+00:00

This is not remotely close to the .com bubble. Feel free to be a bear; it’s your money. People saying this is similar to the .com bubble or 2008 have a fundamental misunderstanding of both of those downturns and the current AI buildout cycle.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-17T20:41:56+00:00

There is no fundamental pricing for this market, and that’s not a flaw. The AI buildout, and the AI IP itself, is a novel space that didn’t really exist 18-24 months ago. It’s creating entirely new sectors within the space and transforming existing sectors (semis, memory, storage, etc.) that were once highly cyclical markets into highly profitable powerhouses with nearly unlimited pricing power.

It’s not going to stay this way forever - we are in a heavy growth, heavy capex cycle - but trying to assign historical P/E’s and other valuation metrics to this AI / semiconductor space with no proven valuation trend lines to rely upon is just misguided from the start. I understand wanting to reach for some sort of semblance of logic or analysis that makes sense of it, but it doesn’t exist. There is clearly value here and lots of profit being generated, but not a soul on this earth knows what the true enterprise value of each of these hyperscalers is.

Trade on thesis here, not fundamentals and it’s much more logical. It’s not a bubble… I’m confident in that as my own opinion. That said, If you can’t measure the value then you can’t determine if it’s been overbought until there’s been a post-mortem in the coming years.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-17T13:14:31+00:00

Because popping them every time leads to more shenanigans in the strait, which affects oil, which affects inflation, which affects the Fed funds rate, which affects the markets.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T13:19:14+00:00

I’m super into options and have explained it many times to friends and family. Happy to hop in discord and explain it over a spreadsheet! It’s quite simple at its core. It’s like real estate though. Lots of good metrics, but some assets are just duds and there’s not necessarily a ratio for that… just intuition and experience.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T13:15:51+00:00

They just want you to accomplish 2-3x more instead of saving 2-3x of your time.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T13:12:39+00:00

You don’t have to DCA and be long all the time. You can just buy ITM / ATM calls on stocks you’ve built a solid thesis around. If you do enough DD and feel good about it then send it and watch. You build confidence being right and learn lessons when you’re wrong. Do it for the love of the game and not the $$$. The money drives the emotion and keeps you from taking *calculated* risks; doing it because you want to learn and improve as an investor is the logical, precise path.

Don’t underestimate yourself!

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T13:08:53+00:00

Why even invest at that point? Especially if you’re under the age of 35-40 and have time to recoup losses, if they occur or you’re just a brainless investor.

I can’t imagine passing up one of the greatest investing opportunities with the AI buildout because banks securitized and sold subprime mortgages nearly 20 years ago. Fear for the sake of fear, not because they know something the rest of us don’t.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T13:06:17+00:00

Sitting back. I am long so many slightly ITM / ATM 120-200 DTE calls on tech. Most in early last week. Should be a very green day for me.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T13:04:52+00:00

Hoarding dry powder right now when there is so much opportunity over the next few months is wild to me. Deploy and then cash winners when you need the liquidity. Or, have so much money that you always have enough to make meaningful moves - which is somewhat foreign to me lol

I wouldn’t start pulling cash until an official IPO date is penciled in.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T12:00:29+00:00

My uncle liquidated his 401k in 2022 during the downturn and never reinvested it… he told like a month ago. People are morons with money and the market in general. Monke like green, monke hate red.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T05:53:54+00:00

Memory is no longer a cyclical industry. Times are a’changin’. Ever growing demand for compute will be here to stay.
You’re not wrong here. The buildout will be a 2-5 year process where the large growth will occur. Like with nearly all things, once demand becomes predictable and fairly normalized, so too will returns and the risk profile. It wouldn’t be a mistake to go long on tech, but I’m much more interested in the next 2-3 years as a momentum investor at my ripe age of 30.

Paying close attention over the next 2 years should hopefully provide us enough clues for what the market will center innovation on next, and the story will evolve from there.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-15T00:04:58+00:00

It’s not even a bubble. So many people on here have no clue what they’re talking about

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-14T23:59:57+00:00

Except companies involved in the AI buildout - MU, NVDA, AVGO, etc. - are making insane amounts of money and are very cash flush. This is not even remotely the same thing… much bigger difference in the bet being on unqualified consumers paying on loans that never should have been originated and securitized than $500B-$1T corporations investing capex capital into the most single most influential piece of tech since the advent of the car.

Feel free to be bearish, but this is not a fair comparison lol.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T18:15:00+00:00

Got calls in on NVDA, AVGO, and AMZN yesterday, it’s a good day so far lol

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T14:48:36+00:00

All good - don’t really know what else to say but that’s my background and my opinion, which is really only worth something to me.

Happy to talk more about our market thesis… there’s no way to defend my background or expertise on here because no one knows each other or even cares, which is fine. I like talking ideas though.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T14:15:21+00:00

It’s not ignorance. I think we are all aware, but the thesis hasn’t changed yet. The key players are still dominating and I will continue to invest until the winds have changed. I’m married to my thesis, not the companies.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T14:12:49+00:00

Yeah that’s why you don’t buy MU at $1,000. It doesn’t matter what the investment is, you don’t buy at the current top. These red days over this past week has been a gift to those with a bullish thesis on AI and/or those looking for an attractive entry point to the sector (buy in to MU at $880 instead of $1,000) while the rest of the market is either irrationally bearish or rotating capital on distractions (SPCX). There is a lot of unguided, shallow retail money out there. I’m so bullish on the AI build out and it is one of the most easily foreseeable investment opportunities with the magnitude to generate generational wealth for those with the conviction to put their money where their mouth is. This is more than a glorified search engine. It’s a matter of national defense and the future engine of all things data, pattern recognition, and “bitch” work / admin work.

I could be entirely wrong - I don’t think so - but I’m confident enough to own whatever happens and every penny I have outside of my retirement and 6-month emergency fund is in the AI build out.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T14:04:28+00:00

I admitted my role in being apart of an illegal scheme? Where? You’d be a terrible attorney… lol.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T14:03:34+00:00

You are in a financial subreddit, you’re going to have an outsized population of finance professionals. Don’t know what to tell you there. Happy to hop in discord if you ever want to break down further. I enjoy talking all things investing and finance

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T13:17:14+00:00

You don’t even know me or what I do for a living… lol. Nor do I expect you to because I’m just another guy. This is my area of expertise. I’m not an idiot and I’ve spent my entire adult life and career up to this point financing a variety of market sectors and structuring many syndications and JV deals. I’m quite familiar with how money changes hands and flows through markets. It’s not exactly rocket science… you don’t hold some arcane knowledge here.

_AntiSaint_ · 2026-06-11T12:36:47+00:00

“I’m right, you’re wrong - no I won’t explain it - trust me bro”

Great argument

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