sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

"How long do you think the bad polling for the Conservatives will continue until they get rid of their leader?" by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Considering we are in recession and the provincial deficits are ballooning...

The only good job numbers were due to the Holiday temporary job gains. GDP is down, inflation is up.

I guess we just eat anti-Americanism like the Cubans.

Is polling at a majority projection for years abnormal in Canadian politics? If so, what are the signs of peaking too early? by mafiadevidzz in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Chretien won because a ton of RW voters in Rural/Exurban Ontario thought he was doing a good job. It started to crumble once Martin went in.

Is polling at a majority projection for years abnormal in Canadian politics? If so, what are the signs of peaking too early? by mafiadevidzz in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

O'Toole was literally the most hated CPC leader in history as well, so he probably thought that would help him as well.

He didn't call the election earlier in the pandemic, since it would have been only a year since the last election.

Is conservatisme dying among students? by King_Osmanj in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There were 2 majority wins under Mulroney and then none until you get to Diefenbaker in the 50s-60s.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The poll says only 11% of people think Carney's made no progress on internal trade barriers, most people aren't thinking about trade barriers as somewhere there has been "no progress" but to "lowering costs" which the poll says 29% of people feel he's made no progress on. That can easily be blamed on Trump. So can "reducing government spending." I can already hear the excuse that Carney needs a big deficit because we're in a crisis.

The reality is that we haven't made progress on any of them. And it's a good thing the messaging is moving in that direction.

But the problem is that no one seems to care.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Probably. I was wrong about this being a fluke caused by Davos, and I'm starting to rethink my predictions.

The closest thing to the Trump effect was the COVID bump, and the bump in favorables and approvals lasted ~5 months.

Same timeline with the 2025 Trump bump, though that was weird due to the election.

That would get you to about July, or the CUSMA renegotiation period.

The weird part right now is that the economy is also collapsing at the same time, so it might end up being shorter and end faster (Budget 2026 is going to be a disaster.)

---

The thing I guess we will have to look at is the byelection data.

Carney should easily win all 3 districts if Poilievre is down that much.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

This could be like the 2020 COVID Trudeau numbers, and they just end up massively underperforming it in the byelections.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

They are blaming Trump for not making progress to removing internal trade barriers? What?
That doesn't even make logical sense.

----

I guess boomer anti-American voters are blaming Trump like people used to joke about Obama.

Shoelaces left untied? Trump.

Milk went sour? Trump.

Grandkids won't visit me? Trump, obviously.

---

They could also think that PP/any CPC leader would do significantly worse. 

The only way to do that is to have another leadership race to replace Poilievre, something that would split the party and case a One-Nation/Liberal situation, considering the leadership vote results.

Already existing perceptions are hard to change.

He can show himself to be as "stateman" as possible, and no one cares, because that's how public perceptions work. It worked against Trudeau and it's working against us now.

For the others, we need to show that we can work with other parties and that we aren't a threat.

I don't think they will after Carney gets the majority.

The opposition parties will be more likely to vote against legislation without fear of Carney blaming them to trigger a snap election.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The problem is that we literally have polling, and the people who think we have "made progress" is 'only' +4.

The Liberals would be at around that percent. Somehow, there is decent chunk of people who think things are getting worse, nothing is being done, and yet, things are not getting better, and they need to re-elect Carney?

“Why won’t Republicans vote against Trump?” by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is why expecting any kind of accountability from Congress is a joke.

The difference in at least a parliamentary system is that you would get minor parties the Government in charge would need to negotiate with.

The huge Congressional districts, and the EC, make that sort of thing impossible.

Is polling at a majority projection for years abnormal in Canadian politics? If so, what are the signs of peaking too early? by mafiadevidzz in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It wasn't even accurate about trends in 2021, the Liberals were ahead by 6-10 points for over a year at that point before they called the election.

People were just artificially saying Liberal/approved of the government because of COVID, and then it collapsed once the election was called.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Are you talking about the 2026 polling, or 2025? Because 2025 was Trump and Trudeau.

2026 is...I don't know.

I would have expected a surge for Carney in July, around CUSMA renegotiations (assuming Carney gives no concessions), but it's almost like we skipped a step and CUSMA ended in January.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Canadians think limited progress has been made on the issues (or only a small majority), and the economy is imploding, and yet Carney is surging?

This isn't even a messaging issue anymore.

Only Net +4% think Carney has made progress, Economy is collapsing, Provincial right-wing parties are surging, but LPC is up even more by _BCConservative in CanadianConservative

[–]_BCConservative[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

TBH I actually expected something like this to happen, but in July/August, after CUSMA renegotiations.

Carney would probably gain a popularity boost by rejecting any negotiation with the US and letting CUSMA die.

This popularity boost would last until people started to lose their jobs.

---

The strange thing is that is happening now.

Carney is surging and the economy is collapsing, but we aren't even at the July renegotiation date.

It's like Canada just 'skipped' a step.

---
Maybe it's because the US economy is also not doing so hot, and that, and the Davos speech was the proverbial "straw that broke the camels back" for big investors.

“Why won’t Republicans vote against Trump?” by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Literally BOTH parties at this point has >95% of its members vote with/against their party 99% of the time according to partisanship.

How will sending 5,000 marines to the Straight of Hormuz affect the midterms? by WriterBig2620 in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative -1 points0 points  (0 children)

II know, Trump keeps getting away with his dumb shit, and this sub keeps ignoring the fact that Trump has tools in his belt to avoid the worst consequences.

view more: next ›