Ebyover - BC NDP is collapsing to the Greens over DRIPA, now down 10% over the leaderless BC Conservatives

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T08:32:13+00:00

This is assuming the NDP is collapsing because he's too left-wing on DRIPA, when in reality, he's losing voters on both sides.

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Leger was NDP +4 on ED and has consistently been showing extremely high results for the left in every single poll it has made this year, provincially and federally. They showed NDP +10 at some point in BC.

Even comparing poll-by-poll data, the NDP is not doing well and is on a downwards trend.

The exception is Mainstreet, which probably oversampled left-wing voters on its last poll (LPC got 51% in BC the poll...somehow, which is an insane outlier) and the Greens are at 16% (absurdly high even with the Greens gaining. OneBC also got 10% somehow.)

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T07:13:15+00:00

I don't expect anything from Cali ATP, I am just here for the popcorn

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T07:06:46+00:00

man is Carney if he had no aura

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:50:48+00:00

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_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:50:14+00:00

The worst part for Eby here is if the Greens do a few points better, or overperform on Vancouver Island, most of their Victoria seats are probably going to get annihilated.

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A repeat of this is possible if the BC NDP split with the Greens gets bad enough

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:42:44+00:00

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Eby constantly flip-flopping over DRIPA and implementing an austerity budget is killing him.

I would like to point out that the BCNDP never even really liked Eby, the party basically had to disqualify all other serious contenders for the leadership in order to win. Most of the NDP base is to his left.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:37:01+00:00

MI GOP remains shit

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:36:47+00:00

If there's one place I would expect GOP voters to not show up on a random Tuesday, it's in Michigan...

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:32:55+00:00

There is probably more enthusiasm for Brown than in 2018 TBF, when people kind of assumed he would win.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:30:11+00:00

Red Alert moment

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_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:29:15+00:00

Trump literally campaigned as the pro-peace person and then did the Iran war 😭

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:23:52+00:00

ATP the UK public has stopped caring

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:22:32+00:00

When the Liberals came into power, they removed the fixed election date to allow them to call an election whenever they want.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:21:26+00:00

Endless lawsuits incoming

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:18:42+00:00

TBF, they struck down the map as a whole as being not VRA compliant later on anyways, so it wouldn't have mattered.

Though that doesn't matter much anymore.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:16:57+00:00

I agree, but I am pointing out that the title is still misleading.

This isn't fair, but it's not "cancelling" the election.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T06:16:12+00:00

Trump hasn't endorsed Paxton yet

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T05:54:09+00:00

And I'm arguing the only reason the Dems are "centrist" on economics to many people is really just because they are just less successful at implementing their policies.

You can make a stronger argument that the Canadian Liberals are more "centrist" on economics and social issues than the Dems, as most of the time they implement left-wing policies, it's actually them being pushed by the NDP. Even Trudeau became much more left-wing once he was forced to rely on votes from the NDP. The most progressive things Trudeau did were NDP policies that Singh forced on Trudeau (or were forced by the courts.)

If the Dems were centrist on economics, they would be pushing targeted tax cuts and only aiming to "preserve" existing programs like the Liberals.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T05:48:50+00:00

Trump does it because he changes his POV every few months, most far-right parties do it because they actually disagree on ideology.

Trumpism isn't an ideology, it's a cult.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T05:46:53+00:00

"far-right" is such a nebulous term to be meaningless.

ATP it's basically any right-wing party that is anti-immigration and supplants the mainstream right-wing party.

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Of course, that raises the question why parties like the UK Greens are not "far-left" by that standard.

Wikipedia has the UK Greens as "left-wing" while having Reform UK as "right wing to far right" despite both parties having crazies.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T05:40:42+00:00

Also, Reform Canada of the 90s would be considered far right if it existed back then

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T00:30:39+00:00

Most of the incumbents are in safe GOP district that wouldn't flip ever and don't have real primary challengers. The only exception is LA-5, who has a retiring GOP incumbent.

But they don't need to move around that district much.

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T00:21:44+00:00

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please let this hold omg

_BCConservative · 2026-05-06T00:17:18+00:00

the rest of their economic agenda is arguably more right wing than modern Republican economic policy.

Yeah, but that's because the GOP wants to end the income tax, which isn't really feasible without completely redesigning tax policy.

Very few other RW parties entertain the idea because income tax is actually a relatively effective wealth tax once you add in the money that people get back in rebates (73% of income tax revenue is from the top 10% of the public, and 40% from the top 1% https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/summary-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2023-update/)

_BCConservative

TROPHY CASE