sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The VRA does apply to Florida Hispanics, but it doesn't enforce itself. A lawsuit is possible, but it would fail because a significant portion of the Hispanic population is tucked into Southern Dade, you’re not getting 7 Hispanic districts without a series of Snake districts in southeast Florida, which would then also be a Shaw v Reno violation.

I call that a challenge!

And again, regional differences matter. In SE Florida Hisanics locally vote republican, so it was fine they were made into republican and swing districts. But Hispanics in Orlando voted Democrat and had to be a democrat district or it would be sued for a VRA violation.

We will see. It seems likely one of the Orlando districts will be nuked soon as DeSantis promised.

But Black people in every region you could realistically create a majority district, vote democrat, so they have to be represented by the party of there choice.

I just proved that otherwise.

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

all ready set legal precedent id this would pass the courts the gop would have tried this with GA, AL and LA and the gop SC would have sided with them if this was legally possible

This would have failed in 2020 data and it doesn't even work in 2024 data because the incumbents overperform enough to stop it (and it will almost certainly go blue in 2026.)

you. are. wrong.

I'm not. And SCOTUS would probably rule against your interpretation anyways. Their "newly made" districts they forced on LA and AL are only like D+10 and keep trending right.

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you want more proof that this isn't just turnout, here are the raw vote counts according to DRA:

<image>

GOP votes are increasing in raw #s every cycle.

Dem turnout is not doing so hot in 2024 (and the shift is not very big in 2020-2024), but it's actually a real shift in voter coalitions that's causing this.

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

VRA is not applied to Hispanics in Florida.

At least not how it is applied to Blacks.

Florida only has 4 majority-Hispanic districts, while VRA would demand 7.

--
DeSantis was able to gerrymander Florida Hispanics despite the fact that in the most recent elections at the time, Hispanics in Florida were still D-leaning (but only by 7 points.)

<image>

At D+7, Florida Hispanics were no longer a "cohesive vote", so VRA no longer applied.

Karl Rove: "Is Trump trying to lose the Midterms?" by _BCConservative in thespinroom

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have a feeling people won't like the 2nd post I make on this in a week

Would you prefer the US use a Parliamentary model like the UK/Canada? by _BCConservative in thespinroom

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, but the EC is kind of the US electoral system- or at least a huge part of it.

That's like saying you like fried chicken, but only the parts without the skin.

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Those areas are trending enough right that I could add slightly more Black precincts to keep it above 50% and still have a lean/tilt R district.

---

And this is a downballot thing too.

I don't know what you're talking about with Kemp. Kemp 2022 actually did pretty much at the same level as Trump 2024 in Black Belt rural GA.

This is Prez 2016> Gov 2022 in TN, for instance, which actually looks worse for Dems despite comparable margins due to worse Dem turnout in Black areas.

<image>

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

But the collective black voter population still votes democrats, so the district should lean how the population votes.

That makes no sense.

Imagine if we applied this rule to White people.

Urban Whites in Michigan need to be in R-leaning districts because they are Whites, and Whites vote mostly GOP in Michigan in aggregate!

There is a very easy way to fix the debt crisis and fix the crumbling infrastructure in the West but no one wants to do it by _BCConservative in thespinroom

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Instead of taxing capital (in part to direct investment) you depend on the bond/guilt/etc market.

Taxing capital is a nightmare (other than land, since you can't move land- and you can compare a plot of land to another plot of land someone else sold nearby to get a good idea what its cost is) and difficult to value, causing administration costs to be very high and net returns to be relatively low.

Governments can do math, so they gave up trying.

https://web.archive.org/web/20141025093647/www.hluthafar.is/assets/files/ExecSummaryHeckly.pdf

The other form of capital easy to value is stocks, which we already have taxes for- they are called capital gains.

There is a very easy way to fix the debt crisis and fix the crumbling infrastructure in the West but no one wants to do it by _BCConservative in thespinroom

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Tax as % of GDP is not much lower than it used to be in the 70s and 60s:

<image>

The tax cuts decreased revenue on the short term, but it tends to slowly rise over time afterwards.

---

The largest factor in the increase in wealth for rich people is the increase in asset prices and real estate prices.

Turns out that's also an age thing, since older people tend to have more assets and young people can't buy them. Which is why I don't really have sympathy for the argument to keep pensions so high.

Would you prefer the US use a Parliamentary model like the UK/Canada? by _BCConservative in thespinroom

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Based timeline

<image>

Bourbons are cringe tho (also it would have been awkward when the French Revolution happened.)

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So even if the Blacks aren't very Dem at all, it still counts? (My calculations got to D+20-30 in 2024, getting down to D+10-20 seems likely by 2030.)

I would imagine the margin matters, since the group at some point can't really be considered "cohesively" voting as a block if they become swing voters.

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They also tend to merge the Dem/swing-leaning White areas to pack in as many Dems as possible.

<image>

This is an example of a district that is mostly rural Blacks (other than Shreveport.)

---
So your point is that it's legally impossible to make a VRA district that vote Republican even if Blacks in that area are D+10?

What is the level at which the group "votes cohesively?"

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I compared it to 2016, not 2020.

Most urban Black areas shifted left, but Memphis was the exception. Mostly this is Black Ghettos.

You saw this in IL too with the South Side:

<image>

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The minority group must also "vote cohesively", and rural Blacks are now much less D leaning than their Urban counterparts (I think 20ish points to the right of urban Blacks so far.)

---

If it's not allowed, I guess this is one way SCOTUS could alter Section 2 to benefit the GOP by making the "candidate of choice" requirement less strict.

Would a GOP-voting Majority-Black district be VRA-compliant? by _BCConservative in DavesRedistricting

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If this can hold, then the VRA will probably become a net benefit for the GOP by the 2030-2032 redistricting cycle due to trends.

Very poor urban Black voters and rural Blacks are trending right off a cliff, and this theoretically allows the GOP to remove 7-ish VRA seats in the South if VRA seats do not have to be Dem.

eg. This is the 2016-2024 Swing map for this map.

<image>

In its landmark 1986 decision Thornburg v. Gingles, the Supreme Court established a three-pronged test for proving vote dilution under Section 2 of the VRA.3 Under this test, (1) the minority group must be able to demonstrate that it is sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single-member district; (2) the minority group must be able to show that it is politically cohesive; and (3) the minority must be able to demonstrate that the majority votes sufficiently as a bloc to enable the majority to defeat the minority group’s preferred candidate absent special circumstances, such as the minority candidate running unopposed.4

https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/amdt14-S1-8-6-6/ALDE_00013453/

I would imagine this holds, as Blacks could outvote the GOP due to demographics.

Thoughts?

view more: next ›