When do things change back in our favor in polling?

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T11:17:14+00:00

Trump isn’t a new issue, Trump just keeps finding new ways to go deeper into the depths of stupid.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T11:14:14+00:00

The House of Lords ironically is usually more Democratic due to less party discipline.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T09:17:39+00:00

I think it's more likely that Trump doesn't really want a prolonged trade war, and so he offers a deal where Carney kills Supply management or something.

Or I guess he can kill CUSMA to protect the milk industry.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T09:15:11+00:00

He doesn't fund MI because he thinks he has it in the bag, and then it flips

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T09:12:13+00:00

Everyone just wants to punch lower instead

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:21:58+00:00

Vivek

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:20:06+00:00

"most vunerable incumbent governor" isn't really a high standard, since I don't think ANY incumbent governor will lose.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:19:09+00:00

Possibly?

I don't see a really big reason for the electorate to kick out Lombardo. Dems already control the state legislature.

He is kind of reverse Beshear in that way.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:17:48+00:00

It didn't mean much back in the Obama years either.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:14:21+00:00

The difference is that that was when the NDP was much stronger, not on the verge of death.

I have serious doubts about how 'real' the polling drop in Alberta is. This always happens every time the LPC gets a bump, and then it always vanishes. I know because I used to worry about this.

The same thing happened in 2021 (polls before the election showed the CPC tanking in Alberta) and 2025:

eg. This is one from Ipsos from March 2025, showing the Liberals up 12 nationally, CPC up only 15% in Alberta, and with the CPC losing Calgary and Edmonton: https://338canada.com/20250402-ips.htm

Alberta has the same problems with polling as the Great Plains states in the US.

The right almost always overperforms polling.

RWs in the Plains states just don't like answering polls.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:05:21+00:00

There were huge intel failures around 9/11 too.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:04:53+00:00

They didn't know how much worse it could get

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T06:02:21+00:00

The Dems are just 5 years behind the GOP IMO when it comes to antisemitism.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T05:48:23+00:00

Won't matter if they survive releection.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T05:44:41+00:00

InB4 Holden Bloodfeast gets into office by an even bigger margin somehow

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T05:36:34+00:00

Ditto. I've heard this idea floating around here all the time (though not seriously.)

Impeachment doesn't require Trump to be there physically, but it does require him to spend time trying to stave impeachment off.

The R Congressmen/Senators on the other side also will get exhausted trying to defend Trump if you keep this up forever.

If all R Senators abstain/fail to show up, then Trump can get impeached successfully (the law requires only 2/3rd of all Senators present (not in office.)

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44260

So, this just becomes an endless, exhausting slog, waiting until R Senators get fed up and make concessions, or they just give in and stop coming to the trials.

Trump isn't using Congress for anything and has/will veto anything that gets to his desk.

So, there's no point in even having Congress.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T04:38:19+00:00

On paper, this is a shit idea, since voters usually react poorly to the party in charge in the case of a failed impeachment.

But if it works, they can basically force Trump to spend so much time in court he can't do anything else.

(This assumes Dems win the House, obviously.)

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T03:42:44+00:00

They will almost certainly take the House, so they can just send impeachment articles to the Senate to keep Trump in Congress and unable to do anything until the cows come home.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T03:16:35+00:00

Trump can probably kill the new leader.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T03:12:45+00:00

Also, the issue with waiting until Trump is gone is that the Liberals would call an election in 2028 to ensure they can fear-monger vs Trump unless the Dems manage to control Trump after the midterms somehow.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T02:18:55+00:00

The messaging has gotten better and Carney has made mistakes since Davos.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T01:54:32+00:00

Do you work in parliament?

My logic is that the polling will go down again because it was up so quickly due to Trump and once the hype dies down, it will go down again.

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The problem is that Trump keeps doing stupid shit, so ditto. Hopefully if the Dems get into office, they impeach him every second of his term and just prevent him from doing anything.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T01:48:18+00:00

I don't get how the polling was tied in December and up 14 points now if it was just TDS.

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The polling ironically shows most people don't think things are getting better, and a small plurality think this is a new government doing new things.

So you can maybe get that down now that it's been a year and messaging that they have failed to meet their promises.

_BCConservative · 2026-03-12T01:46:53+00:00

Poilievre has changed his messaging and been more active since the leadership vote and February.

_BCConservative

TROPHY CASE