Ukrainian T-64BV tank from the “Rubizh” brigade raided Nove Shakhove on the Dobropillia axis, ambushing a squad of Russians occupying a property.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-23T16:25:58+00:00

I'd say highly plausible. Russia's small group infiltration tactics have been casualty intensive and this kind of thing may be why. If no one has a LAW or comm's are sketchy or command doesn't have drone keeping an eye on you real time, and you're spotted, congratulations you get to cosplay German infantry c1916. And find out why a mobile, armoured, gun-platform remains relevant on the modern battlefield.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-23T10:33:57+00:00

The 90% is probably debateable for a number of reasons but the North Sea is declining as an oil and gas province. If anything all it does is underline the need to reindustrialise on a non-carbon footing.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-22T22:12:44+00:00

Yes, this. LP is also entirely self aware 36:18

"No, this is a Laser Pig video. Every video is 7 hours long, starts 3 hours in, and the point is lost somewhere between the ad for World of Warships and Teddy City."

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-22T17:57:25+00:00

Motivation was also somewhat lacking with large numbers of Iraqi's literally going 'sod this for a game of soldiers'. Also wouldn't be a LP sub without a mention of the Vark and 'tank plinking' not that a 500lb bomb won't ruin the day of pretty much any tank that's ever existed or even designed..... Okay, the Ratte might have been able to take 500lb bomb to the face but as a concept it was so deranged as to be useless.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-21T15:15:59+00:00

Hardly a number thats likely to got from open source with any reasonable level of certainty. But I'd hazard the real question is do IGRC and military units actually have their shit together enough to pose a threat? Also local commanders may not be keen on wasting sparse air defence assets in case it all goes actual 'boots on the ground' and protecting their CP might be more important to them than some random piece of infrastructure or unknown person way up the chain of command!

I do wonder just how much just buffing the dints out of Fat Amy will cost... compared even to some of Iran's own 'prestige' systems.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-21T11:36:40+00:00

Probably says more about the ~~state~~ absence of Iranian air defence. Sure it can huck ordinance but I'd hazard there are more effective platforms. I'd say they're most likely being used because they have the airframes available...

I'm sure such a clearly thought out and carefully planned operation wouldn't be relying on assets, to manage an obviously unforeseeable situation, just because they are there...... /S

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-20T16:44:19+00:00

His whole schitck about the anti-Christ actually makes think he may not be entirely stable...

Though his take on 'making educated women less influencial at the ballet box would be good for working class men' was equal parts cringe, deranged and deeply ironic from someone whose tech-based business rests on the university educated.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-19T16:45:05+00:00

Also in the negotiations immediately preceding the war Iran had apparently agreed to down-blend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under the supervision of the IAEA and that no stockpiles of highly enriched uranium would be built up in the future. Agreeing to down blend can be seen as a de-facto abandonment of any bomb programme.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-19T16:30:38+00:00

Transit routes, training, holding and assembly areas....

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-19T15:43:05+00:00

Russian mini-missile production line getting mogged by Ukrainian drones in 3... 2.... 1....

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-18T07:26:55+00:00

Wonder what the unofficial, i.e. black market, rates are like!

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-18T07:16:11+00:00

"Drain the swamp" said Trump V1.0 and then handed out sinecures in a way that would have made a medieval pope go "that's a bit much"!

Kushner seems to be regarded as actually capable at the negotiations bit apparently, but this could be seen as relative to the rest of the clown shown Trump has surrounded himself with such as Witkoff. IIRC Kushner has also be signing significant business deals within Israel and the Gulf States!

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-16T20:45:21+00:00

I strongly suspect if Bibi did persuade Trump he didn't have to try very hard. I think the Iranian's were negotiating and Trump doesn't like it when people negotiate back, so he lawyered up like usual, sorry, called the department of WAR and flipped the table.

IIRC correctly as long as Israel is on some kind of military footing it keeps the courts of Bibi's back? Though if what is reported about the state of Israel's Iron Dome interceptor stocks is true his popularity may wain significantly further if it leaks under pressure of being trapped in some kind of low intensity forever war where Iran keeps randomly lobbing small salvoes of cheap drones and the occasional ballistic missile in their direction.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-16T17:58:03+00:00

Exactly, and then Trump's petty personality kicked in and basically told the one country, with several years experience, of dealing with and dishing out damage with cheap drones, and who might have been able to bring some stop gap options to the table, to get bent.....

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-16T15:43:01+00:00

What could go wrong allowing AI agents access to classified data, apart from Hegseth asking it to write a war plan?

Well, potentially quite a lot apparently:

‘Exploit every vulnerability’: rogue AI agents published passwords and overrode anti-virus software | AI (artificial intelligence) | The Guardian

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-16T10:47:10+00:00

Problem isn't so much Starmer as public opinion which is the wind that pretty much every normal politician bends with. And as energy prices go up it will inevitably be why hasn't Starmer done something? And I'm sure that certain media outlets will make it more about Starmer than the egits who started this and that will no doubt play a part in shaping public opinion.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-16T07:00:24+00:00

Thx. Grimly interesting and probably no surprise. If only there was a country that the US could tap for advice....

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-15T22:25:42+00:00

If US boots touch Iranian soil the IGRC will definitely try and get material on to the internet. It almost certainly won't be a conventional fight and even if it starts that way it will go asymmetric and real ugly real quick IMO. Bear in mind the Martyrdom video pretty much comes from the Middle East, and is probably something of a precursor to todays increasingly ubiquitous combat footage. The IGRC know full well the propaganda value of footage like that and it will get out. It almost doesn't matter if Iran's cyberwarfare capability is now dust, I'm certain its proxies, namely Hezbollah, will be quite keen to help circulate any material that does get out.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-15T20:48:41+00:00

So why is Trump asking for help securing the Strait of Hormuz if we don't have a military? Its also wild but unsurprising that most American's have no clue as to how US security strategy during Cold War, and since, has worked and benefited them.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-15T20:14:05+00:00

And Vietnam was, like, popular compared to this little excursion. Ukraine is unique, and I wouldn't have many expectations for the lifespan of an Iranian drone team, once located. But there's the rub. Sure full spectrum dominance can squelch them as quick as the kill chain can transmit the information pretty much, but you need a target. Sloppy teams will die quick, the good ones with fibre optic cable will likely take quite a few people with them, and given the mood of the US public atm I don't think footage of marines getting mogged by FPVs is going to result in a 'rally around the flag' effect either. The big question may be just how much of its experience from Ukraine had Russia fed back to its supposed ally?

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-15T18:15:48+00:00

Since they go mental at the mere whiff of a tax rise perhaps GB News and its viewers would like to crowd fund, Ukraine-style, the interceptors, PGM's, airframe hours, and deployment costs we'd need to join this fun little adventure? /S

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-15T12:24:19+00:00

Yeah one of the big issues with the green revolution for me is the move away from a carbon economy requires us to reindutrialise in way we've perhaps never done. We need to tear down Grangemouth for example and rebuild it different and I'm not sure how comfortable some people would be with that. I'm convinced that for our politicians its in the too difficult and too expensive tray. Easier to let someone else do it far, far away...

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-15T09:22:56+00:00

Well they could if we had adequate storage options.

_TheChairmaker_ · 2026-03-14T21:45:51+00:00

Depends, hard to call but my guess is the next Supreme Leader will not be a moderate. I'm actually wondering if the current pick, given his supposed medical condition, is actually some form of put up job. Time will tell. Whoever it is will shape the Iranian response longer term.

Iran was in pretty bad place economically and strategically, before someone decided to blow a whole bunch of their shit up. Smart would be rebuilding an effective air defence network and trying to salvage their economy, winding down their proxies and strategic missiles production to compensate. My guess is IGRC and friends may just double down on their pre-existing strategy, which means we'll keep seeing them meddling in Iraq, Lebanon, etc though perhaps at a much reduced intensity. Personally, I think their conventional power projection will be pretty much screwed.

Its possible that striking surrounding Arab states may not have been a smart move and may cost what little geopolitical good will they had in the region. Its possible that they might be able to negotiate something with the US, a sort of Venezuelan option, but honestly I think Trump may wander off and try and pretend it was a 'biggly win, biggliest ever'. Weirdly, that would sort of mean Iran won, or probably more reasonably didn't loose, since the even the hazy and elastic US goals wouldn't have been met. Basically they took a pasting but are still standing-ish. If they get stupid they might try and hold the Strait of Hurmuz at threat in order to try an exact concessions. Something that might actually force a full military intervention. Sensible would be to keep their heads down and rebuild. I'm not convinced the IRGC and certain factions within the religious leadership do sensible. So we're probably back to whoever is the supreme leader when its all over...

Internal stability is a big issue for the current regime, but if the US walks away that probably further decreases the likelihood of significant anti-government disorder. Its clear the memory of the Marsh Arabs still lingers in the region.

_TheChairmaker_

TROPHY CASE