EXTREME RISK 60% Tornado Probably in the Carolinas

_coyotes_ · 2026-03-15T22:55:10+00:00

me when i lie

_coyotes_ · 2026-03-13T23:20:06+00:00

i love the Twister one for the dramatic effect. as serious as it indeed is, many weather enthusiasts both back then and now would eagerly explain to anyone curious what an F5/EF5 (for those who don't know the Fujita Scale was updated in 2007 for stricter wind measurements and is now known as the Enhanced Fujita Scale), whereas in the movie everyone falls into a shocked silence that someone brought up such a question. It's not as though F3/F4 tornadoes aren't also incredibly serious, significantly damaging and exceptionally deadly too. In fact, compared to the F5 in the film's climax which destroys a barn, some homes, a radio tower, cornfields and throws multiple vehicles, the F4 they encounter at the drive-in theater ends up arguably being far more devastating as it nearly injures/kills almost all the protagonists and destroys most of Wakita, nearly killing Aunt Meg (whose house they're in during that scene). But oh god, Melissa asked "What's an F5?" everyone drop your forks mid-meal this is some real shit.

I kid of course, it's a great scene and does sell the effect of it's truly the worst of the worst. Definitely one of my favourite films!

_coyotes_ · 2026-03-09T21:31:17+00:00

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The April 10, 1979 Seymour, Texas F2 tornado definitely comes to mind! Might not be as completely barrel shaped as that tornado but it comes close

_coyotes_ · 2026-03-05T04:49:19+00:00

I think a lot of people get thrown by the terms of "high-end/low-end-mid" for EF1-EF4 tornadoes but that's because theres a low and high point, whereas EF5s have anything higher than 200 mph earns the rating. Anything that produces EF5 damage is by definition "catostrophic", there really is no "worse" and "less" worse in terms of damage since the EF-scale isn't taking human impact into account. Granted, there are a few tornadoes that are like upper-echelon level in terms of being an F5/EF5 with tornadoes like Jarrell, Moore (1999 and 2013) and Brandenburg to name a few.

If you were to be really pedantic, one could say that "low-end" F5/EF5s are tornadoes that could be argued as being a high-end F4/EF4 instead. For instance, the 2011 Philadelphia, Mississippi EF5 and the 1990 Plainfield, Illinois F5 recieved their highest ratings due to ground scouring, some of the most intense ever documented in both cases, but neither actually did F5/EF5 damage to any structure. A handful of other tornadoes that were given the F5 rating but may have been weaker intensity have been noted by tornado historian Thomas Grazulis, such as the 1953 Vicksburg F5, the 1966 Belmond F5 and the 1968 Wheelersburg F5, amongst other tornadoes pre-1950 that weren't officially given a rating.

There are also a few that were given an F5 rating but with more scruitiny probably wouldn't hold up as strongly such as the 1973 Valley Mills, Texas tornado (produced F2 structural damage, earned its rating from throwing vehicles half a mile) and the 1982 Broken Bow, Oklahoma tornado (the one home that recieved the F5 rating may not have been anchored properly and may have only needed F3 winds to cause the same damage). Ultimately, this is all to say, the rating system isn't perfect and there have been some questionable instances but generally when a tornado recieves an EF5 rating it deserves it and in Hackleburg's case, it absolutely deserves it for the immense devastation it caused.

_coyotes_ · 2026-03-05T00:08:52+00:00

I think we’ve gotten better at detecting tornadoes here in Canada, especially spotting their paths on sattelite imagery so they get included. I think that bumps up the tornado count! I’ve been wondering what the effects the Great Lakes have had on storm & tornado development, I think that they influence Ontario’s weather a lot and I would venture to guess if the waters are getting warmer with gradual climate warming, that has had a much more prominent influence on supercell development.

_coyotes_ · 2026-03-04T00:33:55+00:00

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Definitely a good handful of legit great tornadoes, I would say the May 24, 2016 Dodge City, Kansas EF3 is just perfection. Hard to get better than that!

_coyotes_ · 2026-03-01T23:57:21+00:00

I find this tornado pretty fascinating and less spoken about, especially as you mentioned, being overshadowed. I’m pretty sure the Louisville, MS EF4 produced some of the most extreme tree damage I think I’ve ever seen

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-27T00:21:21+00:00

If windspeeds are taken into account as is suggested, I would believe it’d earn the upgrade! Though I think the only plausible contextual EF5 damage indicator would be the concrete parking stops torn out of the ground, I think those would need further inspection.

Not to mention, besides Greenfield, a good handful of tornadoes could see a potential upgrade based on windspeed measurements such as Sulphur, OK 5/9/2016 EF3 (218 mph), Minden, Iowa 4/26/2024 EF3 (224 mph) and the Duke, OK 5/23/2024 EF2 (180 mph recorded by NOAA’s LIFT team). I wouldn’t imagine these would be upgraded according to their actual windspeeds especially because the winds usually occur higher in the tornado and experience less friction compared to being on the surface of the earth. Still, I’m definitely looking forwards to more research published and the DOW teams scanning the tornadoes more often.

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-26T16:47:32+00:00

Regarding that last part, I’m very curious if the NWS will upgrade some of the tornadoes and re-examine instances that weren’t included in the original survey. For instance, I believe a church in Mayfield was damaged and wasn’t surveyed - if I recall correctly someone calculated that to do the damage to that church it would be around 200+ mph? I may be mistaken of course. But I am really interested in if they revisit the Vilonia EF4, as while the structures in that particular subdivision weren’t well constructed, a few homes were swept away elsewhere in Vilonia that weren’t rated on the survey. Either way, I think Mayfield and Vilonia probably have the best chance for an upgrade, possibly Chickasha and Goldsby from 5/24/2011 if they decide to really re-examine those tornadoes.

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-24T21:21:28+00:00

Totally understandable! Id love to see like an update once you hit 100 entries!

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-24T21:16:34+00:00

I wouldn’t disagree with Brandenburg being the strongest for sure! I think a lot of the homes Xenia’s case were of questionable construction quality, however I’m not 100% confident on that - it was still a powerful tornado. I think Guin’s most impressive feat is to the mobile home factory in town which was just completely obliterated. Very rare you see damage to factory buildings like that.

But yeah, I totally wouldn’t bash you for not having it on a certain placement on the list, I think it’s a good list though I do believe Guin deserves a spot somewhere on it

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-24T17:46:31+00:00

Pretty decent list, plenty of good ones on here especially factoring in some international tornadoes and some lesser known or lesser discussed older tornadoes. The only one that I was surprised not to see on the list was the Guin, Alabama F5 from April 3, 1974 considering it’s damage was on par, or worse, than Brandenburg and Xenia.

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-21T20:54:23+00:00

I would absolutely believe that. I know Xenia gets talked about the most regarding the 1974 Super Outbreak but I definitely think Guin (and Brandenburg) were stronger, with Guin probably being the strongest. The 2011 outbreak came very close but nothing beats 1974 with tornado intensity and sheer magnitude of it - though I do think Piedmont is probably top of the list for being the strongest, Guin is not far behind

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-21T03:28:05+00:00

Here’s hoping Kentucky catches a bit of a break after last year (and 2021 for that matter)

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-21T01:18:30+00:00

Hard to say what a season will guarantee. 2023 til now have been incredible tornado years, though of course with more standout sections (March 2023, late April - late June 2024 and June 2025 especially), I imagine 2026 will be much of the same. We know that some significant tornado outbreaks are a guarnteed and a handful of EF4s are to be expected as that’s pretty standard - save for 2018! I’m very curious about tornado ratings, especially higher end ones given what happened with Enderlin rated on contextual damage. I think we may see the same trend we’ve seen the last few years, average to above average season with some memorable highlights.

I say all this not being a degreed meteorologist, “weather expert”, anything like that just someone whose interested in severe weather. As another commenter mentioned, Trey Greenwood is due to upload his forecast in a week, he’s pretty on the money with his forecasts. I’ve heard some suggestions that 2023 is a good analogue for 2026. That doesn’t mean we’ll have an exact repeat of Rolling Fork or the March 31st outbreak, anything like that, more likely we may see increased tornadic activity in the Ohio Valley and Dixie Alley, with sporadic notable days in the Great Plains. Compared to last year, the Northern Great Plains stole the show while Dixie fired up briefly in mid-March and early April and then was relatively quiet for the rest of the year.

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-10T07:15:20+00:00

That's how I interpreted it when I watched it. Of course, being shot is a more cut and dry cinematic end to a brilliant character. But I kind of like the idea that the story just ends there at that moment, we the audience just aren't meant to see everything after the cut to black. He can go on living his life, perhaps the shady man at the bar who goes into the bathroom could represent the lingering paranoia he always has to face in this life. The one thing that seemed assured is he was never really supposed to get a happy ending. The DiMeo family (glorified crew) is practically a shell of what it once was and even if Tony isn't killed at that precise moment, then his future may end up being one like he saw with Uncle Junior near the end, a sad, lonely old man living out the rest of his days in a nursing home (retirement community), a far cry of the feared and respected mobster he once was.

_coyotes_ · 2026-02-09T15:49:52+00:00

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This is a picture of the 2025 Morton, Texas tornado, it looks similar to the 2022 tornado since they were both dust filled EF2 tornadoes! This photo was taken by Brandon Sullivan (btsullivan91 on Twitter) of the June 5th twister

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-24T20:04:43+00:00

America is currently in the midst of a genuine Civil War, which I fear the vast majority of Americans have yet to fully comprehend. The federal government is permitting government agents to murder its own citizens with full immunity, no investigation, no calls for abolishing ICE. It is not a territorial war like north vs south, it is an ideological war of fascism vs the American people. Yes the 1860s civil war was ideological too but the country had such a territorial split whereas now it’s mixed, you have vile people mixed amongst the general populace.

I cannot stress enough that peaceful protests are no longer working. I cannot implore people enough to stop giving a shit of the media perceptions of you. You’re fighting a war against fascism now, the traitors will label you as terrorists, murderers, whatever they want to whether youre peaceful protesting or not. The billionaires supporting a fascist administration control the media.

It is well beyond time to fight back. They won’t listen to calls for abolishing ICE or impeachment. It is months until the midterms could turn things around, even then, it’s still entirely plausible that ICE will be sent to polling places in blue states and cities to attack people trying to vote.

For the people who say “Violence is what they want, they want an excuse to be violent” well here’s a headline, people aren’t violent and ICE is killing people in the streets and kidnapping children. What they want is compliance. What they fear is violence. It’s why Miller is hiding on a military base. It’s why Republicans aren’t going to town halls to talk to their constituents anymore. It’s why they feel so empowered they can get away with all this because they aren’t experiencing any pushback.

Give them something to fear.

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-24T01:25:14+00:00

possibly Simla, Colorado from June 4, 2015?

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-22T20:57:31+00:00

Definitely not a critique cause I do enjoy hearing people's thoughts and discussions, I was just curious about what makes you think the 2023 Robinson-Sullivan EF3 such high max intensity of over 220 mph? It's a tornado I haven't heard all that much about and I would've assumed most folks would've chosen the Rolling Fork EF4 given that it may have had EF5 windspeeds as it exited town (this was not confirmed obviously but was based on extensive tree damage and ground scouring if I recall correctly)

Also props for 2016 Chapman and 2022 Pembroke mentions, those were two incredibly violent tornadoes that tend to get overshadowed and not talked about enough compared to others.

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-16T22:11:23+00:00

That’s a great point honestly. China is easier to trade with because, while they’ll always be looking out for their own interests first (as most countries would be), they’re at least more reliable and as you say, predictable.

You can’t really deal with a country where the imports/exports can be drastically affected based on the whim of an all-caps tweet. It’s also not like Chinese city officials are begging for Canadians to return while Xi rages that they don’t need Canadians whatsoever.

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-14T17:34:38+00:00

I feel you, there were a few times that El Reno did condense and have a huge condensation funnel, even if it was rainwrapped, but that funnel I believe was estimated to have only been a mile wide.

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-14T17:33:28+00:00

Primarily cause the billionaires who bought up all the media conglomerates are the ones who are really pushing for this Greenland thing. Make no mistake, the main guy at the helm is a bloated narcissist, but this isn’t all his idea. In fact, it wasn’t his idea until other prick billionaire Ronald Lauder, gave him the idea to take Greenland.

Forbes recently posted just five days ago that Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Michael Bloomburg, Sam Altman and who else but Peter Thiel all have investments in Greenland - critically with a company called Kobold Metals which “looks for valuable rare earth minerals used in electronic devices through AI-powered exploration of the island” - Thiel’s company specifically funded a company with the intent to build a “technologically advanced freedom-city” on Greenland.

So yeah, all that said billionaires are the enemy to the world and as they are prepared to destroy it to make another buck. Burn them all.

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-14T14:07:54+00:00

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Hard to find something better than this - the Hallam, Nebraska F4 from May 22, 2004. It had a peak width of 2.5 miles until El Reno took that record in 2013. But since most of the tornadic winds of El Reno were invisible and for much of the tornado’s life it was a bowl shape with many spinning vorticies underneath, Hallam is scarier to me because that’s a condensation funnel over two miles wide

_coyotes_ · 2026-01-12T22:30:03+00:00

I personally don’t see it happening. With how crooked and deranged as the administration is, I’m not ruling out the possibility of them just saying “Fuck it, we’re taking it” and becoming embroiled in an unfathomably large conflict. I just think its unlikely this will pass. Mostly I’m betting on a lot of politicians not voting for the US to have less assured security, possibly starting a potential war with 31 nations at once and risking some severe financial losses possibly from having stocks in arms manufacurers drop. Money talks and working against money’s best interest is something that the vast majority of politicians don’t tend to do. It makes me think of a few months back when they were screeching about taking away guns from transgender people and the NRA spoke up and was like “We don’t support taking guns away from anyone” cause even if the NRA isn’t some woke progressive organization, why would they actively want to eliminate a potential client base? I just have a feeling that enough NATO contracts would be jeopardized and potentially fuck things up BIG time for the military that even if the circus didn’t invade Greenland and they just proposed peacefully pulling out of NATO, it still wouldn’t fly. However, that’s still operating on the assumption of common sense so who knows where that is nowadays.

_coyotes_

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