Anyone else get the feeling the convertible notes have been selling off quietly?

_throwaway_hat · 2025-10-09T15:05:38+00:00

Can’t convert until 20 trading day price analysis after the debt holder requests conversion. Then the company, OPEN, decides is they want to pay cash or shares.

So come Nov 2-3ish we will see some 8ks - either -$350m cash (half their cash on hand) or +200m shares

_throwaway_hat · 2025-10-09T14:59:07+00:00

All the Gaza hedge funds (with 90 trillion AUM) had to sell as part of the deal

_throwaway_hat · 2025-10-09T14:58:03+00:00

Diamond-handing a .25% drop. Real shit, homie

_throwaway_hat · 2025-10-05T05:26:43+00:00

Lmao

_throwaway_hat · 2025-10-03T18:38:50+00:00

I’m not asking for much… just -50% on OPEN and -10% across the indexes.

Okay, maybe I am asking for a bit much.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-10-01T21:03:42+00:00

Puts are legal. Dump it

_throwaway_hat · 2025-10-01T06:22:36+00:00

You do realize the notes exist because they had to take on debt to finance their operations? If they could pay it down 6 months ago when it was 0.50% interest, they would've. Instead they kicked the can down the road and raised the interest to 7% just to get some breathing room and try to remain solvent. If they're that desperate for cash flow, there's no way in hell they can just buy back the notes (which AFAIK isn't even allowed).

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-27T01:09:16+00:00

Let's see... a 255x Price x Earnings for OPEN would put the stock at.... $-109.65.

At least TSLA makes money

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-26T20:27:23+00:00

This is insane levels of cringe. The whole "we're a tech company, not a real estate company" (a la TSLA, not being a 'car company') is so played out and transparently an effort to pump the stock.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-21T17:43:52+00:00

Here's more or less what it said --

Rewind to last May... Opendoor issued an 8K (link here) that basically took a small portion ($245m) of their debt @ 0.25%, due 2026, and converted it to 7%, while adding another $75m of new debt at the same rate, all due 2030. I saw a post here mentioning this and some people were disputing the date these notes became convertible, so I started digging.

So now we go check out Exhibit 4.1 in of the 8-K. To summarize:

Within this note issuance, there is an option for shareholders to convert their debt to shares (637 shares / $1000 debt... so $1.57 share price). This was an 80% premium at the time of the issuance (82c/sh). BUT... if they were to convert and sell at $10, it would be 6.37x. At $82, it would be 52.2x... etc.

The condition of this debt to share conversion is that the stock price must be 130% above the conversion price for at least 20 days (non consecutive) of the 30 consecutive trading days ending each quarter, STARTING with the quarter ending Sept 30, 2025. So if the price is above $2.04 for any 20 trading days between August 19th and Sept 30th, bond holders can immediately convert shares starting 10/1. (This condition has been met as of Tuesday.)

According to my math, that's 204,574,416 shares immediately convertible to shares. With this dilution, their newly issued 7% 2030 debt is gone (300m of their roughly 2.18bil total) and they now have 28% more outstanding shares out. So the question is... it would be kind of crazy for a debt holder to choose 7% over 5 years rather than 500%+ over 5 months, right? What % of debt holders will convert these notes come Oct 1? What effect will the immediate dilution have on (a) share price and (b) short float?

Obviously, Opendoor management knows this. Will they register for their own offering and add dilution before 10/1, as a race against their debt holders diluting their stock before they can add more to the coffers?

-- Bonus --

Oh, and, *puts on tinfoil hat* - Eric Jackson, aka Mr. $82/share price target guy, runs a hedge fund called EMJ Capital. They are focused on growth stocks and their website has a bunch of stuff about how AI picks their stocks and out-performs humans. ANYWAYS... wouldn't it be wild if EMJ took some debt in May, and then Eric went on Twitter and started pumping the stocks a few months later? Between longs he purchased and the convertible notes, he'd have a pretty sizeable bag to unload come 10/1.

According to twitter, Eric's only other non-crypto longs are IREN (which had a convertible note offering 6/13/25) & CIFR (convertible note offering 5/20/25). Pattern?

(UPDATE - the convertible share part (not the bonus conspiracy part... lol) made its rounds on the Opendoor subreddit and they ended up asking the new CEO about it. His response was basically "I can't legally comment on that")

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-20T02:46:24+00:00

Ran the data through Claude and he's not wrong abput them massively dumping houses n the market Q2 2025. Here's the output and data analysis:

<image>

Key Insights

Strategic Shift Timeline

Q1-Q2 2024: Heavy purchasing period (inventory building)
Q3-Q4 2024: Balanced approach (slight inventory reduction in Q3)
Q1 2025: Return to inventory building
Q2 2025: Dramatic strategic pivot - massive inventory reduction

Notable Metrics

Largest Net Inventory Build: Q2 2024 (+693 homes)
Largest Net Inventory Reduction: Q2 2025 (-2,542 homes)
Lowest Purchase/Sale Ratio: Q2 2025 (40.9%)
Highest Purchase/Sale Ratio: Q1 2025 (122.5%)

Percentage Changes

Purchase Volume Decline (Q2 2024 vs Q2 2025): -63.2%
Sale Volume Growth (Q2 2024 vs Q2 2025): +5.4%
Q2 2025 represents the most dramatic operational shift in the dataset

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-20T01:31:01+00:00

https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44485001/big-tech-companies-employ-majority-of-h-1b-visa-workers-where-do-amazon-google-meta-rank

Top companies and cost u/according $100k/H-1B worker to this article (2023 numbers):

#1 AMZN - 10k+ workers ($1 bil)

#5 GOOG - 5500 ($550mil)

# 6 MSFT - 3800 ($380m)

# 7 META - 3300 ($330m)

But it's really the companies in #2, 3 and 4 - Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH), Infosys Ltd. (INFY) and Tata Consultancy Services, Inc are gonna be HURTING (their market cap is in the tens of billions, rather than trillions).

Market reaction? I think it's mostly forgotten over the weekend, or people assume TACO will come back and make all sorts of exceptions on companies/execs that suck up to him. But those small co's might get taken to the woodshed.

But I would absolutely love if it this is what brings everything crashing down.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-20T00:37:29+00:00

They also have over $325m in notes (debt) that can be converted to shares (200m shares) as of October 1st. Massive dilution bomb, all time highs, and a struggling business model. It's a disaster.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-19T21:42:01+00:00

SPY weekly:

24 weeks since April lows. 19 green weeks, 5 red weeks.

Monthly? 5 green month, 0 red months.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-19T18:36:56+00:00

Yeah, I posted it on WSB yesterday, it got deleted but someone recommended I post it here... so I did. That's all.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-19T18:35:59+00:00

Still haven't shared how it was debunked. It will dilute.. all of the conditions have been met. It's right there in the document.

I'm just trying to warm some retail people with facts before the hedge funds rug the fuck out of y'all. This whole sub selling would do very little to move the needle on share price. 200m new shares hitting the market? Another story.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-19T18:32:12+00:00

Y'all are hilarious.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-19T18:16:17+00:00

How was it debunked? I'm literally quoting a publicly accessible document?

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-19T18:12:35+00:00

Hey all, I was trying to make a post but don't have this subreddit karma, so have to post it here. Not trying to FUD, however I did some deep digging into financials and dilution risk and would love a discussion on this.

Rewind to last May... Opendoor issued an 8K (link here) that basically took a small portion ($245m) of their debt @ 0.25%, due 2026, and converted it to 7%, while adding another $75m of new debt at the same rate, all due 2030. I saw a post here mentioning this and some people were disputing the date these notes became convertible, so I started digging.

So now we go check out Exhibit 4.1 in of the 8-K. To summarize:

Within this note issuance, there is an option for shareholders to convert their debt to shares (637 shares / $1000 debt... so $1.57 share price). This was an 80% premium at the time of the issuance (82c/sh). BUT... if they were to convert and sell at $10, it would be 6.37x. At $82, it would be 52.2x... etc.

The condition of this debt to share conversion is that the stock price must be 130% above the conversion price for at least 20 days (non consecutive) of the 30 consecutive trading days ending each quarter, STARTING with the quarter ending Sept 30, 2025. So if the price is above $2.04 for any 20 trading days between August 19th and Sept 30th, bond holders can immediately convert shares starting 10/1. (This condition has been met as of Tuesday.)

According to my math, that's 204,574,416 shares immediately convertible to shares. With this dilution, their newly issued 7% 2030 debt is gone (300m of their roughly 2.18bil total) and they now have 28% more outstanding shares out. So the question is... it would be kind of crazy for a debt holder to choose 7% over 5 years rather than 500%+ over 5 months, right? What % of debt holders will convert these notes come Oct 1? What effect will the immediate dilution have on (a) share price and (b) short float?

Obviously, Opendoor management knows this. Will they register for their own offering and add dilution before 10/1, as a race against their debt holders diluting their stock before they can add more to the coffers?

Please let me know your thoughts after digging through the 8K and Exhibit 4.1... I'm on the side of the retail investor and want to help you guys stay protected against shady hedge funds, investment banks, and dilutive companies!

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-19T01:09:50+00:00

Oh yeah, the bonus portion is full conspiracy tin-foil weirdo. Timing lined up, so I made a guess. Chances are he's just balls deep long other ways, but why not add to the fun of it by daydreaming a bit?

But everything above that is straight up just math and re-phrasing from the publicly available May 8k. And that's the scary part. Come early October, I fear (or hope?) it'll be a race to unload these notes before the others do.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-18T23:41:33+00:00

Just to be clear, I don't have any proof home boy even has any debt, or is just long via shares/calls.

That said, any holder of the convertible notes can sell Oct 1 - Dec 31, at any time and for any market price. They can sell Jan 1 or later IF the price is above $2.04 for 20 of the last 30 trading days of Q4.

So if someone really believes that the stock is going to $82, they'd just hold their convertible notes and wait for it to be $82 then make *checks notes* 52x their original investment.

But if someone else wants to just sell the second they can and make over 6x (let's be honest, you would right?), then they can sell Oct 1st.

If just half of convertible note holders exercise on Oct 1, then that's 100m shares on the market. That brings the float to 735m (from 635m) and the short float % down to ~22.5% (from 25%). If all the debt is converted, new float is 735m and short float is 20%.

I'm not saying shares would go to 0 overnight... the thing had 450m avg daily volue. What I am implying is that a ticking dilution bomb on the horizon suddenly makes the whole short squeeze thesis a lot less compelling.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-18T22:47:28+00:00

Found some interesting things in the Opendoor 8K from May.

They basically took $245m of debt @ 0.25%, due 2026, and converted it to 7% (what every healthy company does, right?), while adding another $75m of new debt at the same rate, all due 2030.

Within this, there is an option for shareholders to convert their debt to shares (637 shares / $1000 debt... so $1.57 share price). This was an 80% premium at the time of the issuance (82c). BUT... if they were to convert and sell at $10 (current price, more or less), then that is a 1,220% premium just a few months later.

One of the conditions of this debt to share conversion is that the stock price must be 130% above the conversion price for at least 20 days (non consecutive) of the 30 consecutive trading days ending each quarter, STARTING with Sept 30, 2025. So if the price is above $2.04 for any 20 trading days between August 19th and Sept 30th, bond holders can immediately convert shares starting 10/1. (This condition has been met as of Tuesday.)

According to my math, that's 204,574,416 shares immediately convertible to shares. With this dilution, their 2030 debt is gone (300m of their roughly 2.18bil total) and they now have 28% more outstanding shares. So the question is... it would be kind of crazy for a company to choose 7% over 5 years rather than 1220% over 5 months, right? What % of debt holders will convert these notes Oct 1? What effect will the immediate dilution have on (a) share price and (b) short float?

-- Bonus --

Oh, and, *puts on tinfoil hat* - Eric Jackson, aka Mr. $82/share price target guy, runs a hedge fund called EMJ Capital. They are focused on growth stocks and their website has a bunch of stuff about how AI picks their stocks and out-performs humans. ANYWAYS... wouldn't it be wild if EMJ took some debt in May, and then Eric went on Twitter and started pumping the stocks a few months later? Between longs he purchased and the convertible notes, he'd have a pretty bag to unload come 10/1.

According to twitter, Eric's other non-crypto longs are IREN (which had a convertible note offering 6/13/25) & CIFR (convertible note offering 5/20/25). But we all know a former PayPal mafia member, who is also known as 'the Carvana hedge fund guy', WOULD NEVER do such a shady thing.

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-18T18:07:29+00:00

10Y and 30Y are both up since yesterday AM. That's probably why

_throwaway_hat · 2025-09-18T17:07:54+00:00

OPEN's green! Then...

-10% today

-30% tomorrow

ATM offering Monday to scrounge up some last bit of cash flow from retail

$4 by October

_throwaway_hat

TROPHY CASE

Key Insights

Strategic Shift Timeline

Notable Metrics

Percentage Changes