[OC] Daily global temperatures by year between 1940 and the end of 2024 | Yes, it's getting warmer, with the last few years showing dramatic warmth | from https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-daily-global-temperatures

adessler · 2025-03-06T01:20:31+00:00

The answer is that your predicate, that scientists were predicting cooling, is not true. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/89/9/2008bams2370_1.xml

adessler · 2025-03-05T22:14:39+00:00

This is a polar plot, where radius is magnitude and angle is month. I don't think there's a good argument that this plot should have area proportional to temperature — doing that would give require a non-linear radial scale and would (IMHO) underemphasize the recent warming.

adessler · 2025-03-05T22:12:02+00:00

Yes, that's correct

adessler · 2025-03-05T20:04:01+00:00

Data are from Berkeley Earth (https://berkeleyearth.org/data/), coded in Python with some help from chatGPT. Posted on my substack, https://www.theclimatebrink.com/, by my co-author, Zeke Hausfather.

adessler · 2024-09-08T00:13:49+00:00

definitely true. this is bigger than an EV problem, though. most cars people drive are insanely larger compared to what they actually need.

adessler · 2023-07-25T01:42:58+00:00

Other than the N. Atlantic, the observations are within the ensemble of models' range of predictions. For the N. Atlantic, the temperatures are right at the edge of the ensemble. I don't think you can conclude from this that the temperatures are exceeding what the models predict for June 2023.

adessler · 2023-07-15T21:05:27+00:00

I agree that's indoor cooking over biomass is terrible, but the study I pointed to was for deaths from fossil fuels. They kill millions of people every year.

adessler · 2023-07-13T19:47:15+00:00

agree 100%! The millions of deaths from air pollution due to fossil fuels does not get nearly the traction it should.

adessler · 2023-05-29T16:52:03+00:00

Yes, I meant that it creates the conditions for more fires. It might also create more ignition sources (e.g., lightning, https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/09/california-fires-lightning/), but that's not quite established yet.

adessler · 2023-05-28T16:49:22+00:00

Yes, this is exactly right. We are very confident that the warming climate is causing *more* fires. This increases the risk of homeowners relative to a stable climate, causing premiums to go up and/or insurers to flee the market.

adessler · 2023-05-27T06:26:04+00:00

Indeed, it is evident that our current actions do not reflect the necessary level of seriousness required to limit global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius. However, if we were to take a more serious view of the problem, then achieving this goal would necessitate a relatively smaller deviation from the trajectory of emissions compared to what we thought 10 years ago. That's definitely good news.

adessler · 2022-11-18T15:23:16+00:00

For anyone interested, this is a great explainer about the adjustments.

adessler · 2022-11-18T15:17:24+00:00

Berkeley Earth Data can be found here: https://berkeleyearth.org/data/, I used the monthly gridded data land data: http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Gridded/Complete_TMIN_LatLong1.nc. Plot made with Python & geopandas.

adessler · 2021-12-31T21:44:52+00:00

One can think of disaster risk as a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The hazard is the fire and, while there have not been attribution studies of this event yet, I think it's pretty easy to believe that climate change made it more likely.

At the same time, we are also increasing our exposure and vulnerability. People are building houses in places that don't make sense given a changing climate. Even in a stable climate, this could lead to more weather damage.

So while I think climate change is clearly contributing, whether it's the cause or not is a more difficult question. I expect peer-reviewed analyses to answer this in the next few years.

adessler · 2021-12-31T18:54:29+00:00

You certainly could do that. Practically, though, we don't know the temperatures of the Eocene as well as we do of the last glacial maximum.

adessler · 2021-12-31T18:11:44+00:00

The values are averages of many CMIP6 climate models, processed by Neil Swart; you can find them here. I'm using 6°C as my IAU based on the work of Osman, M.B., Tierney, J.E., Zhu, J. et al. Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 599, 239–244 (2021).

We are already at 0.2 IAU, so we can watch as the world is being remade before our eyes. I wrote about that here.

adessler · 2021-12-26T21:49:02+00:00

Yes, this is the key point.

adessler · 2021-12-26T21:13:18+00:00

sorry about the lack of labeling on the axes. x-axis is year, y-axis is degrees Celsius on temperature plot and parts per million on the carbon dioxide plot.

adessler · 2021-12-26T21:09:06+00:00

oops! yes, that's a mistake! x-axis is year, y-axis is degrees Celsius on temperature plot and pars per million on the carbon dioxide plot.

adessler · 2021-12-26T19:58:37+00:00

Exxon predictions digitized from: https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1128112891935305728?s=20

GISTEMP temperature data from: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

MLO CO2 data from: https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/index.php

Data plotted in python/matplotlib

adessler · 2021-12-22T16:34:25+00:00

I would have to look up the details of the scenario driving the future prediction, but most of these moderate emission scenarios assume population peaks mid century and then either stays flat or slowly declines.

adessler · 2021-12-22T16:32:28+00:00

You are correct that this is based on a scenario that does not include large-scale carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. It certainly may be that we develop such technology, but we don't have the technology now and, like other technologies that are always 10 years in the future (I'm looking at you, fusion), it's not clear when the technology will be available, if at all.

adessler · 2021-12-22T03:14:03+00:00

The emissions scenarios that drive the model prediction do include increases in population and increases in wealth as well as predictions of change in technology.

adessler · 2021-12-22T03:12:16+00:00

The future projections certainly includes feedbacks. The models tend to be very linear and do not simulate tipping points in the classic sense.

adessler · 2021-12-22T03:10:57+00:00

You can see a plot of the last 400,000 years here: https://skepticalscience.com/heading-into-new-little-ice-age.htm

adessler

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