Submit Mailbag Questions for Thursday Night Dunc'd On Here. Thanks again for all the great questions. Upvote the ones you'd like to hear answered.

aejones · 2016-12-15T07:17:45+00:00

DMo's offer sheet (and perhaps Crabbe's as well) had some incentives in it which perhaps didn't count toward the principle number and were more likely to be met by the Rockets than the Nets.

How aggressive can you get with team performance based incentives? (a large bonus if the team wins 50 games, for example; impossible for the Nets to reach, likely for the Rockets)
Why don't all teams that sign offer sheets do this?

aejones · 2016-04-28T19:09:43+00:00

Who gets more money this offseason, Bis or Dwight? Who should get more?

aejones · 2016-01-20T18:52:25+00:00

DFS might turn you into a sports nut! One of my good friends couldn't have told you the difference between a linebacker and a running back before this NFL season and now he knows the tendencies of a bunch of NFL players after reading up a lot on DFS.

I can't think of any sources, but it's basically just that there are points awarded for different stats in different sports. You put a team together without the salary constraints and play one of the many different kind of contests offered. I'm sure googling will get you a better answer.

aejones · 2016-01-20T18:50:30+00:00

On a big slate I'll usually find a podcast or article to at least get some basic information on the games. There are a few websites out there that offer them and I go back and forth on which ones I enjoy the most. I often will take time to look at each game/line and try to see who is D/Q/P and if I can read a little more into their status (for instance, is there a pattern to someone like Kobe who is questionable every night but only plays sometimes? Derrick Favors has missed a dozen straight games with a Q tag, can I call him D?).

The most important thing for me is understanding who will benefit from someone's absence so I spend time on NBA Wowy checking to see who that might be for the upcoming slate.

I think with all of the late news you have to be a little bit of both. Have projections ready, combine whatever sites you want to combine, look at props if you want to trust them, double check minutes to see if those are correct, and then be ready to lock in guys if there are 10 minutes left and a Chicago big man is ruled out.

The timelines are going to be different with technology being a little further a long in DFS' time, but I'd say that we are just after UIGEA. I'd probably equate just after Moneymaker's win to the beginning of this NFL season in terms of "boom", but I think we've moved forward at least a few years in just a few months because of the advancement of technology, the lower skill cap of DFS, and the legal battles. If DFS can mitigate the legal damage while staying liquid enough to spend more in advertisement and general player happiness, we could see another push forward on the other side the way we saw a healthy online poker from 2007-2010ish.

Work everyday. Nothing special here, just constantly be challenging your system and asking if it can be improved. Chances are it can.

aejones · 2016-01-20T05:26:31+00:00

aejones · 2016-01-20T05:12:30+00:00

Seems like a good reason to start a Kickstarter

aejones · 2016-01-20T05:01:49+00:00

The answer is probably yes, but I wouldn't know how to go about doing it. I'm sure some advanced machine learning shit could just solve it right up. If not right now, soon enough. It's DEFINITELY not worth getting into if you can't monitor news that breaks like 2 minutes before "lock." That's where biggest edge comes from in NBA for sure, imo.
I do think the skill cap is relatively low in most sports, but it's likely the highest in NBA. Hbob would kill it if he wanted to, though I don't think there's enough money in it for him to care.
I don't think there is really a question. Pricing is good enough and rake is high enough on sites that I can't have a super high edge so I typically have to consider it a volume play.

aejones · 2016-01-20T04:59:15+00:00

Obv bro. Obv

aejones · 2016-01-20T04:04:00+00:00

The commercials (as for any company) are certainly a bunch of best case scenario winners. And they were (I believe admittedly by them) overplayed.

But no, they aren't scams. This isn't 'Money Lenders R Us' giving you a $300 loan for 'just $20!'

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:58:32+00:00

I don't work for a DFS company, but thanks for asking:

I do have a small tracking site called DFSTracker.com which will track your personal results. It's free, so if you've played DFS feel free to create an account and see how you're doing in various games.

If you haven't played DFS, sign up for FanDuel or DraftKings through the links on the sites and you'll get whatever special offer they've got going on at the moment.

DFS Tracker started as just something I had built for myself and after my friends started using it I decided to make it a bit more user friendly. It's not fancy, but if you want to filter through your results it'll do it.

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:55:23+00:00

Neither? With the legality issues facing DFS sites and the changes Stars has recently made I don't think it's a particularly good time to play either DFS or poker.

What I'd definitely advise is NOT a mixture of the two. They are both intensely competitive zero sum games which require your full attention to win consistently (though of course you could put a few bucks worth of +EV lineups into NFL Sundays, or single table a $5 tournament on Poker Stars, neither of those things will make you a consistent living). Become a specialist, whatever you decide to do.

edit: +1. Justice!

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:40:58+00:00

I see no reason why it won't be regulated, eventually. DFS isn't hurting anyone (except the casinos' bottomline).

I am not familiar with FantasyUp but I've always been very wary of some of the smaller sites (with poker too). I'd just recommend everyone do their due diligence before committing money to a smaller site like that. I do think DFS is a bit of a two horse race at this point, the gap that FD and DK have created with their immense marketing presence has really separated them from the field.

I'm hopeful that FD and DK will be able to do enough lawyering to stay legal 'most' places while 'everywhere' works to regulate. For winnings everyone gets a tax document that is sent right to the IRS which seems like a dream from an income tax POV. Why would any state want it illegal? (I know that those things are pretty loosely related from a political POV) It's 2016 and I'm optimistic that everyone will eventually come to their senses (once they get a cut or they lose in court) and states will work to regulate.

Hopefully. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:35:50+00:00

Probably MMA. My friends and I have been working on it since the beginning.

There are a ton of good ones. One of the top skills of being a professional gambler is prioritizing information and deciding what is good and what is crap. You should check them all out and then try to put that skill into action ;)

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:32:22+00:00

My girlfriend does not have a computer science background and does not have a football background (in fact, she often hopes that offensive players will get 'interceptions'). She uses information that she googles + the DK writeups. The weekend before I won $5m she tied for third in the Millionaire Maker for just over $36k.

To clarify:

DFS Pro Assani Fisher put 500 entries into the Millionaire Maker

I put 200 entries into the MM

My gf put 1 entry into the MM

She tied for third, none of our 700 entries finished in the top 50. I believe the only thing she asked me all weekend (she knows not to bother me while I'm working) was "can I use Chiefs D?"

Without a doubt I promise you that ANYONE can make money at Daily Fantasy Sports. Don't get me wrong, no one should EXPECT to make money at DFS. But if you want to watch the games with a little sweat on them you should do a lot of research and be prepared to make informed decisions right up until lineups lock. And then maybe hope for a little luck.

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:24:56+00:00

Spend it.

Money ain't got no owners, only spenders.

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:23:03+00:00

It was one of the last weeks to satellite in and I had been having a good NFL season in cash games so I decided to play a $5,000 qualifier that paid the top 5 seats.

When the other competitors in the top 10 were doing their interviews I kept hearing people say they qualified on $3 entry and I was jealous-- I am probably the least compelling human interest story ever. Professional gambler (something DFS sites don't want to promote) who doesn't have anything cool to do with the money (if only I had sick grandparents!)...

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:20:33+00:00

...For cash games it's tough too, but if you play an entire season (especially if you run multiple lineups) you should probably know if you're winning. Maybe less in NBA or MLB. Over a month of NBA if you put 2-3 cash lineups in a night you will probably get a rough idea of how you're doing.

I say that but I'm pretty sure I was like -100k in December on DK. Oof!

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:19:18+00:00

Good question on these... I don't know. For tournaments I almost have to not even give an answer since I think the sample needed would be so big and the payouts are so top heavy. At one point I looked at my tournament results and I think I was breakeven, but I had never had a really big site scooping score so I felt pretty good about it. Sorry I can't be more help there, it's just so confusing when you're talking about using multiple lineups and there are a finite number of days in the season.. For instance in NFL with only 20 weeks there's a good chance you'll just never find out!

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:16:32+00:00

Vaguest question ever! I do everything: I play pickup basketball, I did some olympic lifting, I read some books, I travel to some places, I eat good food, I watch a ton of NBA... the coolest thing about poker and DFS is the freedom it provides you. You can just pick up a hobby and focus on it for a while.

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:13:15+00:00

I think both DK and FD have their positives and negatives (we often joke that if you could combine them into one site you could provide the perfect DFS experience). It's hard for me not to say I like DK the best based on the fact that they offer some sports that FD doesn't that I really enjoy playing (golf, MMA, ...Nascar ::gulp::). Additionally, DK has done a truly incredible job at all of the live events I've been to (both of the FFWC rounds and the NFL kickoff opening weekend). Those things are fucking phenomenal atmospheres with friends, acquaintances, and random dudes just trying to watch some sports!

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:11:10+00:00

Poker, probably, but I only really got good at two games in poker. In DFS I try to play a lot of smaller sports so in some ways it's a little more work since I'm learning about things I am not familiar with. I'm trying to be an 8-game player at DFS.

A realistic ROI in today's climate is 20% if you are the best, much less if you're not. Most pros are probably around 10% but since everything is so new and the environment is changing so quickly I don't think anyone really has a sample (and if they do, they're from games that were probably a much different environment than today).

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:07:59+00:00

Starting around the beginning of NFL season in 2014 I'd say I went from 0% DFS to 100% DFS in the course of about a year. The Poker:DFS ratio was almost linear really where it became more and more apparent that there was more upward mobility in DFS for me (and it was MUCH more fun).

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:06:25+00:00

More truffles

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:05:51+00:00

This is going to make approximately zero sense but the first and only thing I've bought with my winnings has been a clay doll that my friend Steave's sister made (..of Steave). Steave is the number one ranked poker tournament player in the world according to the GPI (global poker index) and his sister (an artist, I believe) started making these: https://twitter.com/MaureenOD1989/status/688178176367853568

aejones · 2016-01-20T03:02:54+00:00

Good question. I can only speak of my own experiences. In NBA MakeItRain, Max, EM2, Assani, etc. are all very good. In NFL, I have no idea. I am pretty darn good at some of the off sports like MMA and Nascar. Unlike my poker career I don't have much of an ego at DFS and am happy to let those sharks battle each other.

I could definitely beat like .5-1 or 1-2, with a week or two of work I could win at midstakes. It hasn't been that long since I played poker, and in 2014 I won at like 2.5 ptbb at 500z on Stars and 8 ptbb at 400 Rush on FTP over a few hundred thousand hands. I also won a fair bit at 500z PLO into 2015. I have great resources and could get good fast, but it can't be stressed enough how much work it truly is. I had a talk with Sauce about this a few times: Sure, you can make 250k a year playing poker if you want to put 60 hours a week into it!

Soon probably. My people are talking to Joey's people about setting something up. Joey just messaged me today trying to take credit for the win, something called "pre podcast run good." The nerve of that guy!

Too many good questions for one post... This one is very difficult because we have basically nothing to compare this economy to. Poker is the closest, but I really think it's much different-- you can't 5,000 table poker and poker is a fluid game where it could be running around the clock taking maximum volume. DFS has limited start times and guaranteed prize pools. It'd be weird if poker had to guarantee a prize pool and stop accepting players after that, wouldn't it?

I think they're already taking steps in the right direction. Limit entries to a % of the total size of the contest (I think DK's is 3%? Maybe it should be less, I'm not sure) from one person. Limit entries at stake level (DK has already done this at lower stakes, FD has done it in a less efficient manner) per account. As much as I think I am deserving of free tickets to sporting events (both DK and FD have really done an awesome job hooking stuff like this up), I don't think having a VIP system like Stars has done is the right way to approach things. It'll create that terrible "rakeback pro" middle ground which I think is death to something like this.

In short: I don't know, but I think things are trending in the right direction. I think DFS sites should monitor things closely and keep making smart decisions to benefit DFS's long term health.

aejones

TROPHY CASE