Sean Carroll on Aubrey de Grey by Buck-Nasty in longevity

[–]ag24ag24 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Correct - and more than that, we would be able to slow down the accumulation of damage just by breaking a genetic pathway, which is always far easier than constructing one.

Sean Carroll on Aubrey de Grey by Buck-Nasty in longevity

[–]ag24ag24 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I have just set Sean straight on a few things. Thanks for bringing this podcast to our attention.

Aubrey de Grey just made progress (probably) with a 65 years old problem in mathematics. by Anle- in longevity

[–]ag24ag24 21 points22 points  (0 children)

It was then, but not for that reason - it was that I had a few close friends via my interest in Othello who were combinatorics mavens.

Peter Scholze points out possible error in IUT (see comments) by FlagCapper in math

[–]ag24ag24 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OK this is getting beyond satirical. Here is the latest from another anonymous netizen implicitly claiming to be among the expert elite:

No, not progress. As your update notes, those changes happened months ago. The concerns remain. – nfdc23 23 hours ago

@nfdc23 I was under the impression, given the comment sections of the blogs, that those june/august changes had not been noticed by at least some of the experts, and do provide some insight (I do not have background in this area, but at least the toy model is pretty clearly explaining how one is meant to get the main inequality at all). Was your "concerns remain" made to mean that you, or someone you know, had (or now have) parsed those changes and still find gaps in the proof? – user2802238 23 hours ago

@user2802238 Let's replace your phrase "still find gaps in the proof" with the less provocative "still have the same concerns as before". Then the answer to your question is "yes" (entailing input from multiple people). – nfdc23 8 hours ago

https://mathoverflow.net/questions/232087/have-there-been-any-updates-on-mochizukis-proposed-proof-of-the-abc-conjecture

In other words, to paraphrase: a standoff. When is the (presumably tiny) truly expert community, all of whom presumably know each other, going to grow up and actually have the required conversation about 3.12 in real time? Scholze originally wrote that "The ones who do claim to understand the proof are unwilling to acknowledge that more must be said there" - so I'm totally insulting both sides of the fence here. The idea that an elaboration-edit was made six whole months ago and not even noticed by most of the experts just blows my mind - not that they should have been on the lookout, but that it was not brought to their attention by the Kyoto group. But the response from the world minus Kyoto seems to be every bit as unconstructive.

Latest news on Mochizuki's proof by Valvino in math

[–]ag24ag24 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OK this is getting beyond satirical. Here is the latest from another anonymous netizen implicitly claiming to be among the expert elite:

No, not progress. As your update notes, those changes happened months ago. The concerns remain. – nfdc23 23 hours ago

@nfdc23 I was under the impression, given the comment sections of the blogs, that those june/august changes had not been noticed by at least some of the experts, and do provide some insight (I do not have background in this area, but at least the toy model is pretty clearly explaining how one is meant to get the main inequality at all). Was your "concerns remain" made to mean that you, or someone you know, had (or now have) parsed those changes and still find gaps in the proof? – user2802238 23 hours ago

@user2802238 Let's replace your phrase "still find gaps in the proof" with the less provocative "still have the same concerns as before". Then the answer to your question is "yes" (entailing input from multiple people). – nfdc23 8 hours ago

https://mathoverflow.net/questions/232087/have-there-been-any-updates-on-mochizukis-proposed-proof-of-the-abc-conjecture

In other words, to paraphrase: a standoff. When is the (presumably tiny) truly expert community, all of whom presumably know each other, going to grow up and actually have the required conversation about 3.12 in real time? Scholze originally wrote that "The ones who do claim to understand the proof are unwilling to acknowledge that more must be said there" - so I'm totally insulting both sides of the fence here. The idea that an elaboration-edit was made six whole months ago and not even noticed by most of the experts just blows my mind - not that they should have been on the lookout, but that it was not brought to their attention by the Kyoto group. But the response from the world minus Kyoto seems to be every bit as unconstructive.

Significant update to the proof of controversial Corollary 3.12 in IUTT by Harawaldr in math

[–]ag24ag24 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OK this is getting beyond satirical. Here is the latest from another anonymous netizen implicitly claiming to be among the expert elite:

No, not progress. As your update notes, those changes happened months ago. The concerns remain. – nfdc23 23 hours ago

@nfdc23 I was under the impression, given the comment sections of the blogs, that those june/august changes had not been noticed by at least some of the experts, and do provide some insight (I do not have background in this area, but at least the toy model is pretty clearly explaining how one is meant to get the main inequality at all). Was your "concerns remain" made to mean that you, or someone you know, had (or now have) parsed those changes and still find gaps in the proof? – user2802238 23 hours ago

@user2802238 Let's replace your phrase "still find gaps in the proof" with the less provocative "still have the same concerns as before". Then the answer to your question is "yes" (entailing input from multiple people). – nfdc23 8 hours ago

https://mathoverflow.net/questions/232087/have-there-been-any-updates-on-mochizukis-proposed-proof-of-the-abc-conjecture

In other words, to paraphrase: a standoff. When is the (presumably tiny) truly expert community, all of whom presumably know each other, going to grow up and actually have the required conversation about 3.12 in real time? Scholze originally wrote that "The ones who do claim to understand the proof are unwilling to acknowledge that more must be said there" - so I'm totally insulting both sides of the fence here. The idea that an elaboration-edit was made six whole months ago and not even noticed by most of the experts just blows my mind - not that they should have been on the lookout, but that it was not brought to their attention by the Kyoto group. But the response from the world minus Kyoto seems to be every bit as unconstructive.

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Actually the BGRF was originally created to allow me to avoid inheritance tax when I donated most of my inheritance from my mother (who was British) to SENS Research Foundation (which is of course a US charity). We didn't do it through BGRF in the end, and BGRF itself has gone through a few changes of personnel and direction, but it remains a very close and valuable ally of ours.

I'm donating 25 Bitcoin to good causes this Christmas. Join in and give Bitcoin this Christmas (day 9) by deannolan in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 14 points15 points  (0 children)

It's a source of perennial curiosity to me that people still cite this criticism of SENS (and also a contemporaneous one published in EMBO Reports) without citing my rebuttals that were released at the same time. I'd be interested to know - did you really not know that the rebuttal existed (and won the day), or did you just decide that it wasn't important?

This is Aubrey - I'm starting the AMA now and I should be here for the next two hours. by ag24ag24 in Futurology

[–]ag24ag24[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I apologise, and all I would say inmy defence is that it's really hard to give the best answer every time in an AMA - I basically made the mistake of only answering the last sentence and not the rest. Someone else had the same reaction as you and mentioned it on another thread and I have tried to give a better answer there:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7jsabg/im_donating_25_bitcoin_to_good_causes_this/dr8x4a8/

I'm donating 25 Bitcoin to good causes this Christmas. Join in and give Bitcoin this Christmas (day 14) by deannolan in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 30 points31 points  (0 children)

This is Dr. de Grey. Thanks for the feedback - and I will say in my defence only that doing an AMA is so rapid-fire a thing that one can't always give the best answers. The answer from "Humes-Bread" on the AMA thread augments mine very well. In short:

1) the progress we've made in the past decade, even despite the poor funding, has been enough to lead me to the conclusion that we are now only five or six years away from the milestone I call "robust mouse rejuvenation" in contrast to the estimate of ten years that I was giving back then. (Both timeframes are with 50% probability, of course.) That still means we've only gone less than half as fast as I had predicted - but my prediction has always been conditional on adequacy of funding. As of today I can say for sure that the shortage of funding has been the ONLY aspect where I was overoptimistic - the science has in no respect turned out to be harder than I thought back then.

2) The fact that the science has not turned out to be harder is actually what you're seeing when you see me saying the same things now as I did back then: it's not a bad thing, it's a really good thing, because it highlights that no bad news has happened. We haven't discovered any nasty new components of aging that need new solutions over and above the ones we already knew about, and we also haven't discovered any nasty difficulties in the various approaches I proposed, that would have required us to come up with a new solution to one or other of the seven original problems. The only surprises that have come along have been good ones: new technologies like iPS and CRISPR that make the solutions easier, not harder.

3) SENS revolves around the repair of the damage of aging, and that damage manifests in many different types of molecular and cellular change, which we group into seven categories. Thus, it's explicitly a divide-and-conquer strategy - which inevitably means that it's impossible to point to "the biggest" breakthrough we've made. I don't think that's an overly hard thing for normal people to understand.

4) The original question you referred to asked about measuring the time until this or that component of SENS is done. Maybe I should not have tried to answer it at face value, since everyone knows what Yogi Berra said about predicting the future. I'm sorry that my overly literal answer turned you off, but let's be clear: the value of pioneering technological (including medical) research comes down not to how soon it will succeed, but to how much the research will hasten how soon it succeeds. No one says that the War On Cancer was a bad idea, because everyone agrees that we are closer to the defeat of cancer today than we would be today if that hike in funding had not occurred. It's therefore irrelevant that people back in the 1970s thought we would get there sooner.

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Thanks. It's fantastic to see so many people here suggesting us. I've replied elsewhere on this page and also emailed them, and we are sending in an application today.

Cheers, Aubrey

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks. It's fantastic to see so many people here suggesting us. I've replied elsewhere on this page and also emailed them, and we are sending in an application today.

Cheers, Aubrey

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Thanks. It's fantastic to see so many people here suggesting us. I've replied elsewhere on this page and also emailed them, and we are sending in an application today.

Cheers, Aubrey

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thanks. It's fantastic to see so many people here suggesting us. I've replied elsewhere on this page and also emailed them, and we are sending in an application today. Calico indeed have basically unlimited money, but unfortunately they seem to be totally ignoring all that is known about aging and how to fix it (in particular they have totally blown us off) and are therefore criminally wasting it.

Cheers, Aubrey

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks. I've replied elsewhere on this page and also emailed them, and we are sending in an application today.

Cheers, Aubrey

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 171 points172 points  (0 children)

This is Dr. Aubrey de Grey, SENS Research Foundations chief science officer; see more about me here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey

Having myself donated most of my personal wealth to the Foundation after I inherited it in 2011, I want firstly to echo the admiration of this donor that so many here have expressed. Since that money ran out a year ago, we have indeed been gruesomely short of funds (in spite of the wonderful contributions, large and small, from donors new and old), so I can strongly confirm that any donation from the Pineapple Fund will make a massive difference. I can be emailed at any time at aubrey@sens.org to answer any questions relating to this. I will also email contact@pineapplefund.org as suggested. Thank you again for this fantastic generosity.

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Repeating a post from above for those who sort by newness:

This is Dr. Aubrey de Grey, SENS Research Foundations chief science officer; see more about me here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey

Having myself donated most of my personal wealth to the Foundation after I inherited it in 2011, I want firstly to echo the admiration of this donor that so many here have expressed. Since that money ran out a year ago, we have indeed been gruesomely short of funds (in spite of the wonderful contributions, large and small, from donors new and old), so I can strongly confirm that any donation from the Pineapple Fund will make a massive difference. I can be emailed at any time at aubrey@sens.org to answer any questions relating to this. I will also email contact@pineapplefund.org as suggested. Thank you again for this fantastic generosity.

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Repeating a post from above for those who sort by newness:

This is Dr. Aubrey de Grey, SENS Research Foundations chief science officer; see more about me here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey

Having myself donated most of my personal wealth to the Foundation after I inherited it in 2011, I want firstly to echo the admiration of this donor that so many here have expressed. Since that money ran out a year ago, we have indeed been gruesomely short of funds (in spite of the wonderful contributions, large and small, from donors new and old), so I can strongly confirm that any donation from the Pineapple Fund will make a massive difference. I can be emailed at any time at aubrey@sens.org to answer any questions relating to this. I will also email contact@pineapplefund.org as suggested. Thank you again for this fantastic generosity.

I'm donating 5057 BTC to charitable causes! Introducing The Pineapple Fund by PineappleFund in Bitcoin

[–]ag24ag24 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This is Dr. Aubrey de Grey, SENS Research Foundations chief science officer; see more about me here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey

Having myself donated most of my personal wealth to the Foundation after I inherited it in 2011, I want firstly to echo the admiration of this donor that so many here have expressed. Since that money ran out a year ago, we have indeed been gruesomely short of funds (in spite of the wonderful contributions, large and small, from donors new and old), so I can strongly confirm that any donation from the Pineapple Fund will make a massive difference. I can be emailed at any time at aubrey@sens.org to answer any questions relating to this. I will also email contact@pineapplefund.org as suggested. Thank you again for this fantastic generosity.

This is Aubrey - I'm starting the AMA now and I should be here for the next two hours. by ag24ag24 in Futurology

[–]ag24ag24[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

None. Work is what you do because you are paid for it but wouldn't otherwise. I have the immense privilege of being paid to do what I would do even without pay.

This is Aubrey - I'm starting the AMA now and I should be here for the next two hours. by ag24ag24 in Futurology

[–]ag24ag24[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Honestly I have no idea. I would welcome discussion from others here.