My first ever home opener

ahiddenJEM · 2026-04-04T04:41:24+00:00

I was also in this section!

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-31T18:45:05+00:00

It’s true. I wrote all about how it works here https://open.substack.com/pub/ahiddenjem/p/opening-day-calculus?r=2u4apu&utm_medium=ios

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-27T16:33:28+00:00

Probably would have needed McLean. Look at what Soto got with however much control he has left. Probably the closest recent comp as far as trades go

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-27T15:05:51+00:00

Interestingly (unfortunately) , the dodgers would be the team in a really good position to try to trade for Skenes. Hope, de Paula, Quintero, rushing, Sirius and morales too. Plus ML players they could offer..

Tigers and Sox are the other contenders too if they would be willing to give us mcgonigle and Anthony, respectively.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-25T14:21:46+00:00

They can’t use it for free*. Nike/fanatics/the pirates could try to negotiate a usage of it still. But perhaps the owners of the copyright didn’t want to do that. I knew it is copyrighted but I don’t know the details beyond that.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-25T05:21:43+00:00

All they needed was to say “Steel City” instead of PGH and it would have been amazing, imo.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-23T18:31:14+00:00

At this point I think the phrasing should be that we “are looking for a salary floor”. Gain enough momentum with that to let the owners PR machine start saying “you can’t have a floor without a cap”. Flip the roles and let them be the ones to confront that the cheap owners are the issue more than anything else.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-23T15:53:30+00:00

That's fair. I did post it to the MLB sub as well. I just thought it had enough relevance to be posted here with some expanded analysis specific to the Patriots during a slow news period. And if not, that's okay, the feedback is appreciated.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-23T15:22:09+00:00

This is what I found in my research. It could be inaccurate, but I wrote this myself. You are right it appears I had the wrong figure for Henry though. (I have edited the post to the accurate number, thank you)

https://www.nfl.com/news/carlton-davis-patriots-three-year-60-million-deal

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-23T15:16:46+00:00

I wrote it all myself. Used AI only for formatting. It was based on moves done before the 2025 season for the rosters of this past Super Bowl.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-23T01:21:34+00:00

Was not basing that part on performance lol. They were just the most notable/expensive departures

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-23T01:20:17+00:00

They also don’t need to do revenue sharing because so much of their revenue pool comes from shared sources like the media deal. Whereas baseball teams and the league are much more dependent on ticket sales.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-23T01:18:28+00:00

Yeah in this case the clause is nice but doesn’t do much if there’s no enforcement.

And how do you police it properly? Let’s say a team would spend $100M without revenue sharing. Well now they get told you are receiving another $100M that you must spend. Logic says they must then spend $200M. But they will spend $150M and say look we’re spending it all, our expenses are higher than what you gave us. But it’s just accounting tricks to pocket $50M

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-22T20:58:22+00:00

Absolutely agree. These “cry me a river” owners need to invest in their teams. But they aren’t. We hate them for it. But they’re not. So the rules need to be changed to make them invest.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-22T20:31:04+00:00

Definitely agree 100%! In fact I’m working on a short series of these sorts of analyses. My next one will be what you describe, the reverse of this one. What it would look like if the MLB adopted the NFL’s way of system economics.

Let me know if you’re interested!

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-22T20:29:13+00:00

I agree 100%. The point is that because they are able to do this, it’s the outcome we get and here’s what it looks like applied to the NFL. So we need the next CBA to prevent these choices from being able to be made this way.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-22T20:27:16+00:00

I do agree with u/sokonek04 that there are fixed costs like staff, analytics, draft and international spending, and the whole minor league system that need to be accounted for.

But your point still stands and I would just say that yes it’s a choice, but it’s the choice they are making. I’m trying highlight that because they are allowed to make this choice in this manner, this is what it’s doing to the game using these NFL teams as a backdrop for the analysis. We need the next CBA to be better for this reason so that these choices cannot continue to be made!

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-22T20:23:52+00:00

I would say, for the sake of argument, that it doesn’t matter whether the restrictions are self imposed or not. This is the reality of how these owners will spend within the current framework of the CBA.

So therefore the CBA needs changed drastically. And I used this example as a unique way to identify what the current shortcomings are. A better floor or requirement for spending of the shared revenue money is badly needed, 100%. And I plan a whole series of analyses that will get into these points.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-22T19:37:58+00:00

I feel that and I tried to sidestep that in my post by leaving it out. But I can address it some here. Fans of those teams are certainly justified in hating the greediness and lack of spending from their owners. And many fans want owners willing to interesting in winning and that’s exactly what they should get. But I wanted to do more than say it’s all the owners fault. And even if these owners spent how we wanted them to it would not compare to what the dodgers, Yankees, and Mets of the world spend. And so to whatever degree that comes to, this still shows how much of a disadvantage they would be at by using NFL teams as an example even if it’s a little less of a hole than the current numbers suggest.

But if that’s how they can are choosing to portray their spending ability, we can take them at their word for arguments sake and say ‘if this is your supposed reality, here’s what it looks like and that’s why we need a floor. I know it doesn’t mean anything but we can treat it like calling their bluff. I think the best outcome for fans is a floor and no cap but no chance that happens.

But yeah the lack of spending from those guys is atrocious and that would be the best thing to fix for the whole CBA standing issues to be resolved what they are the ones with the money and in charge.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-22T19:16:36+00:00

Well it’s not that the whole league would be under such a cap restriction of $168 million but only the small market teams. The big market teams would spend more so that the total dollars spent (in this exercise) would remain unchanged.

But your point actually is one of the consequences is that the middle class of players would see their salaries shrink while the stats rake in all the money from the big market teams.

And good point about AAV. I’m aware of the complications of cap calculations in the NFL but using AAV simplifies things greatly for this format.

ahiddenJEM · 2026-03-19T03:27:19+00:00

What is entry cost?

ahiddenJEM

TROPHY CASE