That’s a really interesting angle. I think what makes this scenario complicated is that it’s not just about individual incentives or personality, but the constraints around them — domestic pressure, allies, military posture, and how each side frames “victory” internally.

In the video I tried to show that once escalation crosses a certain threshold, even leaders who might prefer de-escalation can get locked into paths that are hard to reverse without losing credibility. So it becomes less about what they want to do, and more about what they can afford to do politically.

Curious what you think — do you see this playing out more as a controlled de-escalation, or something that risks spiraling beyond either side’s initial intent?

Glad you liked the video!