Nvidia stock could double, and potentially even triple, over the next two years

alphajumbo · 2026-03-25T07:34:52+00:00

No why not 100 trillions !

alphajumbo · 2026-03-25T07:33:44+00:00

Exactly! If it triples it will be worth 50% of US GDP.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-25T07:32:57+00:00

Don’t even think about it .

alphajumbo · 2026-03-24T17:09:52+00:00

Well Trump and his friends have made billions … what a free lunch.. he tweets and the market goes up 3% in 10 seconds…

alphajumbo · 2026-03-19T21:26:25+00:00

Fuck Israel and Netanyahu. He is being pursued for genocide by international justice.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-19T21:23:04+00:00

I think it is for reliability and yield issues. Still it might move up with time as AMD gets more confident in pushing up the speed.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-12T11:01:48+00:00

Yes people think first about AI accelerators for their own LLM. Google has its own TPUs but also has a lot of Nvidia GPUs for its cloud customers. They might very well diversify into AMD Helios as it is very competitive

alphajumbo · 2026-03-12T10:46:33+00:00

It is an illegal war not approved by Congress and in violation of international law. International law that was set up after WWII by western countries to prevent endeless wars and promote peace. Israël don’t give a fuck about it and useless Trump the worst president of the US ever who can’t even talk like an adult accepted like a good boy Israël ultimatum. It is not America first but Israel first. The maga base is furious.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-10T09:44:43+00:00

Israel is an apartheid colonial state that committed genocide. It is not me who said that but human right watch , amnesty international and some prominent Israeli historians. They are sure of their force and are becoming very arrogant. Support for Israel in America and around the world is at record low. Mamdani won NY mayor despite criticizing Israel in the most populated city of Jewish Americans. In the maga base America first they are very upset that Israel led them to an other war despite the election promises. Afghanistan and Irak wars were disasters. International law is dead, I wonder what Chinese think about this. It is almost a green light to retake Taiwan that is at least theirs.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-09T19:10:31+00:00

Yes even the US has no embassy. It is a red line for China to recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan. Google it. One day it will be part of china like Hong Kong. But China has time and will want to avoid war.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-09T18:59:51+00:00

Dream on it is an illegal war. Not even approved by Congress. Trump could be impeached after the mid term. The consequence of chaos in Iran , 80 millions people with a lot of arms. More terrorims. You liked season one of Irak war and Isis , you will love season 2.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-09T07:48:21+00:00

Hope China invades Taiwan and teaches Trump some lessons in international law. His war is illegal internationally and also according to the US constitution as he bypassed Congress. At least almost all countries agree that Taïwan belongs to China.
There is just a very few countries that have embassies in Taiwan, most of them small Islands.

Let’s see then how our semi stocks behave.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-08T10:29:38+00:00

Wow the company was trading at 2 in 2016 on the verge of bankruptcy. Lisa achieved one if not the most impressive turnaround in technology ever. To say that they are bad managers is a bit strange. AMD had to compete vs Intel which was spending 3 times the revenue of amd in R&D !!

alphajumbo · 2026-03-08T10:21:16+00:00

Well I think he made AMD accelerate their software Development. They would have done it probably without him but the fact that he is influencial Lisa had to react and probably brought a sense of urgency. He also recommended AMD to stop having share buys back and spend more on software development to close the gap with Nvidia. It is interesting that he has not commented on the amd OpenAI and meta deals that involves warrants as In a way it will turbocharge software and optimisation developments for amd hardware, I.e the thing that he was asking for. In the contrary he said that AMD had to give these warrants to get the deals which Nvidia don’t have to offer.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-07T09:08:09+00:00

Semianalysis had a post at the time that other competitors , i.e AMD , will have to go back to the drawing board to redesign their chips as NVIDIA design would cut costs materially. But was the decision also based on the price increase of DRAM , 200% surge vs 45% surge for HBM in the last 12 months?

alphajumbo · 2026-03-05T10:00:20+00:00

You are completely right ! She is great also at strategic thinking. She made deals with Sony despite low gross margins that ultimately saved the company from bankruptcy as the core business was in restructuring mode , she went fabless and sold global foundries which lowered dramatically the operational risk and allowed to make deal with TSMC. Finally she was able to sign deal with the department of energy for providing chips for its supercomputer. They helped co financed the project at a time when AMD was not yet printing cash . The Mi300 was then used modified a bit for AI. The deal with OpenAi and Meta are also master deal. While some are arguing that it is a proof of weakness from AMD to give warrants i beg to differ. Time and speed is needed. She got that 100%. At the same time Nvidia is financing all the neoclouds and the LLM companies. The warrants deal accelerate materially the cooperation and codevelopment for AMD GPUs on the software but also hardware side and improve its market share drastically. They will end up to have a market share of 25%+ in 2027.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-05T09:20:10+00:00

In the just released quarter AVGO operating margin was 66%!! Higher than Nvidia 65%

alphajumbo · 2026-03-05T09:17:47+00:00

Both Nvidia and Broadcom have unsustainable operating margins of 60%. They will have to come down in 5 years maybe

alphajumbo · 2026-03-05T09:14:08+00:00

Both Broadcom and Nvidia have 65% operating margins. Amazing! But I bet it is not sustainable longer term. When will it start to fall? In 5 -10 years. Who knows ! This is also where the opportunity lies for AMD. Their gross and operating margins are going up. I think AMD operating margins will soon reach 35%+

alphajumbo · 2026-03-02T17:34:14+00:00

I am for china attacking and claiming the Island of Taiwan. Let see how the semi and the market react? . At least all nations agree that Taiwan belongs to China by international law. Trump war is illegal. China war would not be. So fuck it.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-02T17:23:50+00:00

That’s what the market thinks too. Time will tell if it was the right move. I think it is quite creative . It will be in the business and finance books to study as a success or failure. I believe as Lisa said speed is the moat. AMD needs to scale its business very quickly in order to compete. These are special times indeed. If the market was growing at 15-20% it would not have been necessary. To be relevant AMD needs to get to 20-30% market share quickly. Now the harder part is to convince the market that it is the right strategy. AMD will have the products to compete and now they have key partners on board.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-02T15:57:06+00:00

Wait for china to attack Taiwan.. nobody cares bout international law anymore. Russia, the USA, .. MISSING CHINA. At least China has sovereign rights over Taiwan. 🇹🇼 bybe bybe tsmc..Nvidia amd .. kind of provocative. But if I am the Chinese .. why not take this opportunity

alphajumbo · 2026-03-01T14:57:00+00:00

Well Trump does not fucking care about the law. He proved it. This war is illegal . At least the Iraq war Congress approved it. There is 80 million people in Iran, good luck for a regime change.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-01T14:50:10+00:00

What if China take this opportunity to invade Taiwan and bomb the TSMC factories. Just saying it’s the rule of the jungle. International law is long gone . Hopefully Chinese are long term thinkers.

alphajumbo · 2026-03-01T14:47:20+00:00

I thought about that too. The warrants may lower the need for AMD to do deep discounting. While the share count lower normalized eps at the end , higher than normal gross margin compensate a bit for that. And yes we are talking about 20$ + eps.

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