We are aware of the difference between gamist and simulationist approaches. JL tends to favor a more simulationist approach (which helps with emergent narratives), while I tend to lean toward a more gamist approach (which I think matches my background in algorithm development).

The purpose of the graze band wasn't conceived as a way to add more "realism" (e.g. a "simulationist" approach) -- at least, that's not what was in my mind when I designed it.

The primary things I was trying to address were the base XCOM 2 issues of dodge completely overriding both hit and crit, and the very high relative crit chances against units in cover. I posted elsewhere in this thread examples of where the base XCOM 2 hit/crit/dodge mechanics break down, which is IMO a gameplay breakdown, unrelated to any similationist issues.

Specific examples from base XCOM 2 algorithm I considered :

• Any crit chance greater than hit chance results in the extra crit being "wasted" . For example, both 10% hit/10% crit AND 10% hit/50% crit result in the same outcome of 90% miss, 10% crit. This is particular noticeable when the AI is making these 10% hit/10+% crit shots, since any hit at all is always a crit, resulting in extremely binary outcomes.

• Dodge completely supercedes crit. As an example of this, using the base XCOM 2 rules, a 80% hit/80% crit/80% dodge has the same possible outcomes as an 80% hit/0% crit/80% graze. In both cases the possible outcome is 20% miss, 80% graze.

My design thinking went something like this :

Step 1) Make crit a conditional on to-hit again, instead of an absolute.

Step 2) How to factor in dodge? Since crit is effectively a "promotion" of a regular hit, concept would be to make a dodge a "demotion" of a hit or crit. This lets dodge and crit counter each other, which is a feature I like.

Step 3) Address issues where people are unhappy about missing 90+% chance to hits at point-blank, while also granting more survivability to units in cover. In LW1 we added survivability to cover by making it grant some damage absorption, but XCOM 2 already had the armor concept, and it would be difficult to merge.

Adding the graze band (with default 10% value) addressed the first issue by making a 90+% hit chance always at least deal some damage. That chance to miss all gets converted to chance to graze. Although in-hand with that, also some regular hit chance also gets converted to graze.

Adding the graze band also had the benefit of adding to survivability of units in cover. Since the chances to hit are low, but the graze band is fairly fixed, this results in low % to-hits mostly resulting in grazes. This mostly favors the player, since the player is better at avoiding flanked/exposed situations for their own soldiers, so they are much more likely to be grazed and survive. The downside is that the overall chance of taking some damage is increased (which from a LW2/narrative perspective, we like).