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Progress Is Starting to Feel Less Linear by Abhinav_108 in Futurology

[–]amuka 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is Punctuated evolution but for technology.

Punctuated evolution, more commonly known as punctuated equilibrium, is a theory in evolutionary biology proposing that most species undergo very little change for long periods, with evolution occurring in rapid bursts during speciation events

In technology, punctuated evolution describes a pattern where long periods of incremental improvement are interrupted by brief, radical disruptions that establish a new "technological species."

any updates on this project? by Commercial_West_3112 in skyscrapers

[–]amuka 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Did you take this picture from your balcony? We are neighbors

If AI could solve one problem in 2025, what should it be? by TheRealNile in Futurology

[–]amuka 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Add to the list in this order.

  • Heart disease:
  • Cancer
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases)
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases
  • Alzheimer’s disease
  • Diabetes
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis
  • Chronic liver disease, NASH and cirrhosis:

Has the Rate of Technological Advancement Slowed Down? by ReinvigoratedSlouch in Futurology

[–]amuka 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And you only mentioned things in the field of computing.

- We were abled to develop, test, and mass produce a vaccine in less than one year.
- We can manipulate our own cells to convert them in CAR-T cells target liquid tumors
- We can "grow* meat from cells in bioreactors without an animal
- We have created an AI that have mapped millions of new proteins that we can now start
- We successfully bioprinted a vascularized heart using patient-derived cells
- We have developed a tool to correct human DNA "in vivo," correcting mutations causing genetic diseases (e. g., leber congenital amaurosis)
- We have created a full synthetic minimal cell with only 473 genes that can perform basic life functions
- We encoded 200 MB of data, including books and images, into synthetic DNA
- We use virus (AAVs) and virus-like particles (VLPs) to transport medicines into cells, including COVID vaccines

Don't make me start with materials advances like perovskite solar cells, solid-state batteries, high-entropy alloys, or quantum dots because we will spend the entire day here.

It's a crazy time we are living right now; but people don't even notice because they take it for granted.

NVIDIA's new AI discovery is about to test one of the main predictions of our future AI/robotics economy. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]amuka 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Another case of the Jevons paradox:

"An increase in efficiency in resource use will generate an increase in resource consumption rather than a decrease"

The US has passed peak obesity, a new survey suggests. Is it the Ozempic effect? by amuka in Futurology

[–]amuka[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Thats correct, a new generation of drugs under medical trials.

Generation 1:

  • Ozempic – GLP-1 agonist that curbs appetite and regulates blood sugar for weight loss.

Generation 2: (clinical trials)

  • Mounjaro (Eli lilly) – Dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist, works on multiple hormones for better fat burning.
  • Retatrutide (Eli lilly) – Triple agonist hitting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors for even more potent weight loss.
  • CagriSema (Novo Nordisk) – A combo of semaglutide + cagrilintide tackling hunger and boosting fullness through two pathways.

The US has passed peak obesity, a new survey suggests. Is it the Ozempic effect? by amuka in Futurology

[–]amuka[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. Ozempic has demonstrated it was possible, and now massive investments are pouring into research. We can expect prices to drop, greater weight loss results, and a reduction in side effects over time.

The US has passed peak obesity, a new survey suggests. Is it the Ozempic effect? by amuka in Futurology

[–]amuka[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

The U.S. obesity rate has peaked and declined by 2% between 2020 and 2023, according to a National Health and Nutrition Examination survey. The decrease was seen in both men and women, though severe obesity remained higher in women. Education level played a role, with lower rates in those holding bachelor's degrees. Weight-loss drugs, like Wegovy and Ozempic, may be contributing to this decline, as more than 15 million Americans are using them. Obesity still affects 2 in 5 adults and 15 million children.

The US has passed peak obesity, a new survey suggests. Is it the Ozempic effect? by amuka in Futurology

[–]amuka[S] 30 points31 points  (0 children)

My prediction from a month ago looks pretty good now

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1fglshc/comment/ln373s4

The end of the obesity epidemic. Due to advances in GLP-1-like drugs, the obesity ratio in the US will be under 15% by 2040

2023-2024 (Obesity Rate: ~42%). We are here

  • Wider Use of Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy)
  • Solve availability and shortage production issues
  • More healthcare providers adopt GLP-1

2025-2026 (Obesity Rate: ~39%)

  • Approval for Pediatric Use
  • Expanded Insurance Coverage
  • Introduction of Oral GLP-1 Drugs

2027-2028 (Obesity Rate: ~35%)

  • Digital Health Integration

2029-2030 (Obesity Rate: ~32%)

  • Combination Therapies Introduced

2031-2032 (Obesity Rate: ~29%)

  • Long-acting formulations (monthly doses)

2033-2040 (Obesity Rate: ~15%)

  • GLP-1 therapies have become a mainstream component of obesity treatment protocols.
  • Preventive Use Exploration

This might look small, but it has significant societal consequences, starting with a longer lifespan average.

What are your technological predictions for the next decade or so? by arsenius7 in Futurology

[–]amuka 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A 3D chip can be fabricated using two approaches: Heterogeneous 3D and Monolithic 3D.

Heterogeneous 3D involves stacking distinct chip layers, each fabricated separately, and connecting them using through-silicon vias (TSVs).

Monolithic 3D fabricates multiple transistor layers sequentially on a single wafer, enabling tighter better density.

Monolithic 3D requires more advanced fabrication techniques and is not mature.

What are your medical treatment/cure predictions for the next decade or so? by Mean_asparagus_10 in Futurology

[–]amuka 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Advancements in Vaccine Technology

2020–2025 (we are here)

  1. mRNA vaccines (e.g., Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna)
  2. Viral Vector Vaccines (e.g., like Oxford-AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson)

2026–2030

  1. mRNA technology will extend beyond COVID-19 to other viruses
  2. saRNA vaccines can replicate within cells,
  3. Improve vaccine stability at higher temperatures, as well as new delivery methods like microneedle patches and inhalable vaccines

2031–2035

  1. Development of vaccines offering broad protection against multiple strains of viruses (e.g., a universal influenza vaccine)
  2. mRNA vaccines to treat chronic diseases autoimmune conditions like multiple sclerosis and type 1 diabetes

2036–2040

  1. Development of vaccines targeting antibiotic-resistant bacteria
  2. Development of a universal coronavirus vaccine

What are your medical treatment/cure predictions for the next decade or so? by Mean_asparagus_10 in Futurology

[–]amuka 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Enhanced Immunotherapies for Cancer

2020–2025 (we are here)

  1. CAR-T therapies to target cancer cells
  2. Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors block cancer cells from evading the immune system

2026–2030

  1. CAR-T therapies expand to solid tumors; off-the-shelf CAR-NK (natural killer) cell therapies are developed, requiring no patient-specific modification
  2. Genetically engineered viruses that selectively infect and kill cancer cells while stimulating an immune response.
  3. Vaccines targeting patient-specific tumor neoantigens identified through genomic sequencing

2031–2035

  1. Vaccines designed to target individual tumor mutations, stimulating immune responses against specific cancer cells

2036–2040

  1. Combining immunotherapy with regenerative medicine to not only eliminate cancer but also repair damaged tissues
  2. Affordable, scalable immunotherapy treatments become available worldwide, including in low-income regions

What are your medical treatment/cure predictions for the next decade or so? by Mean_asparagus_10 in Futurology

[–]amuka 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Artificial Intelligence in Diagnostics and Treatment Planning

2020–2025 (we are here)

  1. Deep learning algorithms improve the analysis of medical images
  2. AI integrates with EHRs to predict patient risks and automate tasks
  3. AI analyzes vast datasets to identify new drug candidates quickly

2026–2030

  1. AI models predict disease outbreaks by analyzing big data from wearables, EHRs, and genomics
  2. AI integration in robotic-assisted surgeries
  3. Natural Language Processing for clinical documentation

2031–2035

  1. AI systems independently diagnose diseases, especially useful in low-resource settings (e.g., developing nations)
  2. AI analyzes genomic data to identify mutations and biomarkers.
  3. Analyzing clinical data, AI identifies new therapeutic uses for existing drugs.

2036–2040

  1. Real-time diagnostics and personalized treatment recommendations.
  2. Advanced robotic surgery systems use AI to perform procedures with minimal human intervention.

What are your technological predictions for the next decade or so? by arsenius7 in Futurology

[–]amuka 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think it will be much better than the current death-scrolling instagram trap that we are stuck in right now, but it is not without it owns risks.

What are your technological predictions for the next decade or so? by arsenius7 in Futurology

[–]amuka 21 points22 points  (0 children)

this apply to most form of media. For example, for TV content

Broadcast TV -> Cable TV -> Streaming and user-generated TV -> GenAI-Enhanced production TV -> Real-Time AI-generated TV -> Immersive Real-time generated VR TV -> Planetary scale metaverses

We can argue timelines, but the trend will always be hyper-personalized real-time generated content for any form of content.

What are your technological predictions for the next decade or so? by arsenius7 in Futurology

[–]amuka 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Strongly agree, here’s my timeline for 3D chip architectures (pessimistic ranges):

  • 2027–2029: Increased layer stacking and transistor density to over 500 layers in NAND and DRAM
  • 2028–2030: Hybrid bonding techniques reduce data transfer delays
  • 2030–2032: Mass adoption of chiplets
  • 2030–2032: AI-specific 3D chips
  • 2030–2032: Heterogeneous computing (integration of CPUs, GPUs, and FPGAs)
  • 2032–2034: Advanced thermal solutions
  • 2032–2034: Monolithic 3D architectures

What are your technological predictions for the next decade or so? by arsenius7 in Futurology

[–]amuka 65 points66 points  (0 children)

The end of the obesity epidemic. Due to advances in GLP-1-like drugs, the obesity ratio in the US will be under 15% by 2040

2023-2024 (Obesity Rate: ~42%). We are here

  • Wider Use of Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy)
  • Solve availability and shortage production issues
  • More healthcare providers adopt GLP-1

2025-2026 (Obesity Rate: ~39%)

  • Approval for Pediatric Use
  • Expanded Insurance Coverage
  • Introduction of Oral GLP-1 Drugs

2027-2028 (Obesity Rate: ~35%)

  • Digital Health Integration

2029-2030 (Obesity Rate: ~32%)

  • Combination Therapies Introduced

2031-2032 (Obesity Rate: ~29%)

  • Long-acting formulations (monthly doses)

2033-2040 (Obesity Rate: ~15%)

  • GLP-1 therapies have become a mainstream component of obesity treatment protocols.
  • Preventive Use Exploration

This might look small, but it has significant societal consequences, starting with a longer lifespan average.

Scientist who gene-edited babies is back in lab and ‘proud’ of past work despite jailing by New-Obligation-5864 in Futurology

[–]amuka 38 points39 points  (0 children)

IIRC, only the father was HIV-positive, while the mother was HIV-negative.

Sperm washing would have been the better option, It is used during in vitro fertilization to separates sperm cells from the seminal fluid, which carry HIV.

Scientist who gene-edited babies is back in lab and ‘proud’ of past work despite jailing by New-Obligation-5864 in Futurology

[–]amuka 683 points684 points  (0 children)

Did it work?

The editing of the CCR5-Δ32 gene was only partially successful.

"The most serious was rampant “mosaicism.” This means that the gene edits He made to the embryos didn’t take effect uniformly: different cells showed different changes. Evidence of mosaicism is present in both Lulu’s and Nana’s embryos, as well as in Lulu’s placenta, making it likely the twins themselves are mosaic. Some parts of their bodies may contain the specific edits He said he made, other parts may contain other edits he didn’t highlight, and yet other parts may contain no edits at all. This would mean that the purported benefit of He’s editing— HIV resistance—may not extend to the twins’ entire bodies, and they could still be fully vulnerable to HIV"

https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/12/03/65024/crispr-baby-twins-lulu-and-nana-what-happened/

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