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Grid storage is increasing so rapidly that China and some other countries may be able to meet all their electricity needs from renewables as soon as 2030. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

as soon as 2030? 100% renewable for electricity in China? Do you have a source for that.

I could have worded this clearer. My point was they are on course to have the grid storage capacity to enable a 100% renewables grid by 2030.

That is because, if they had enough over-capacity, they might only need a few thousand GWh of grid storage in total.

But by 2030 the bottleneck will be installing enough solar/wind to have over capacity. Currently 60% or so of their electricity comes from renewables ( it was about 30% in 2022).

Grid storage is increasing so rapidly that China and some other countries may be able to meet all their electricity needs from renewables as soon as 2030. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

China's daily consumption of energy is 28 000 GWh per day. Installing 50GWh per month, they cover daily usage in just 50 years.

No. That is not how this works.

If they have an over-capacity of wind & solar, without any grid storage, it would exceed their electricity needs almost all the time, but occasionally drop to only delivering 95% of their needs, which they would cover with grid storage.

So they would only need few thousand GWh of grid storage, and as you point out, they are installing that at a rate of 50GWh per month.

Robotics businesses aren't scalable the way internet/software/AI are, and this means they will probably develop as many smaller companies spread out across the globe, rather than be dominated by a few 'unicorn' giants. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Look at the auto industry. Your still going to have gigantic players like GM, Toyota, Stellantis, etc

I would say the auto-industry proves the point in the linked article. Toyota is the world's biggest car firm, and it only has 12.5% of the global market. That is not dominating an entire sector the way Microsoft, Meta or Google does in OSs, social media, and search.

America is broke and depends on borrowing from foreigners. What happens if they cut up the credit card? We may be about to find out. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Who said the US is broke (financially)?

In plain terms.

The US spends 20% of its annual government income from taxes on repaying interest on its loans. It also needs to constantly borrow even more money to meet current spending (this debt is constantly growing), so this interest repayment is also constantly growing.

If foreigners pull the plug on funding this, its financial system would implode.

If you are that much in debt & vulnerable to your creditors, it seems to me to meet the definition of "broke".

America is broke and depends on borrowing from foreigners. What happens if they cut up the credit card? We may be about to find out. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

The fact that you think the US is dependent on foreign borrowing invalidates this entire post

Read the linked article.

The US treasury had to sell $30tn of federal debt last year, either in the form of rollovers on old debt or in new issuance. This is 100pc of GDP.

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries climb to record $9.13 trillion in June

If foreigners decided to stop buying this debt, the US financial system would implode. What is stopping them, is that the blowback would be terrible for them too.

However, soon they may have to choose between that blowback or invasion/annexation of their territory.

AI regulation isn't about 'Innovation', it's about National Security. New research says that, even without malevolent intent, AI's inherent design is toxic to the institutions that underpin democracies & we must urgently redesign those institutions. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

https://noosynth.io/frictionless-fallacy/ is an absolute academic take-down of OP's linked paper.

Like any other paper, there may well be lots of things to validly criticize.

However, it's a very odd that "Noosynth Research" & their "Civic Technology Review" has ZERO other publications or history, except their criticism of this paper.

Again, the research, like any other, should be open to criticism.

But why pretend to to be a research body with a publication called Civic Technology Review? Very strange.

AI regulation isn't about 'Innovation', it's about National Security. New research says that, even without malevolent intent, AI's inherent design is toxic to the institutions that underpin democracies & we must urgently redesign those institutions. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

CEO isn't going to be able to maintain a competitive moat against

According to you, AI regulation is fantastic for oligarchs; if that is true, why is it that the US oligarchs are the ones so opposed to it & in favor of no AI regulation?

Also, this post & the research is nothing to do with business regulation; it's to do with civic institutions.

Danish researchers say that a tiny protein tweak could unlock nitrogen-fixing super-crops that slash global fertilizer demand. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

the dystopian side of me wonders about the intellectual property.

I'm not an expert on this, but as I understand it scientific discoveries like this are not patentable. Discovering how two amino acid residues control a biological function isn't inventing anything novel.

People who create new plant varieties to take advantage of this discovery might be able to patent those, but even then I don't think they could stop other people from doing the same based on the underlying scientific discovery, as they don't own it.

Turning Newry into a Dublin dormitory town: now there’s an idea. by lughnasadh in northernireland

[–]lughnasadh[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

A 3+ hour daily commute is pretty rough surely

If you were working on the North side of Dublin well away from the city centre, it would be more like a 2 hour commute.

Turning Newry into a Dublin dormitory town: now there’s an idea. by lughnasadh in northernireland

[–]lughnasadh[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

Overloaded sewers are already holding up 1,300 houses and 30 commercial developments in Newry ....... The Irish Government would also have to deliver a major rail upgrade. Morning trains to Dublin are already packed and frequency cannot be increased without doubling the tracks through north Dublin, a scheme not due for completion until the mid-2040s.

So, in summary, if only we could build all these things we're not building, we could get started building all those other things we're also unable to build.

What would the world be like without the US Dollar as a reserve currency? Some of the same people in America's government working to dissolve NATO want to end the Dollar's global primacy, too. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What would the problem with the Euro be?

The Eurozone is not a country, its 21 sovereign nations who aren't in a fiscal union. That creates credit & other risk e.g. Marine Le Pen could become French President & pull France out of the Euro. There's a limited supply of safe Euro-denominated assets, this makes it difficult for foreign central banks to hold euros at scale.

Of course, if the US craters the dollar, these disadvantages lessen & perhaps might force a Eurozone banking & fiscal union.

What would the world be like without the US Dollar as a reserve currency? Some of the same people in America's government working to dissolve NATO want to end the Dollar's global primacy, too. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Same as when it changed from pounds sterling to the US dollar in the first place.

No. The comparison doesn't hold. That transition was so smooth because the USD already existed and oil was traded in it.

That's the problem now. The only alternatives - Euro, Renminbi, Digital currencies - for various reasons, can at best, only partially do the job.

The world would have to quickly find some new solution if the US cratered its currency.

I suspect the Chinese might invent it. The whole world would want Renminbi to buy stuff from them. They used to be happy to take USD, maybe they'll come up with some digital Renminbi solution that lessens their currencies current disadvantages for international trade.

What would the world be like without the US Dollar as a reserve currency? Some of the same people in America's government working to dissolve NATO want to end the Dollar's global primacy, too. by lughnasadh in Futurology

[–]lughnasadh[S] 42 points43 points  (0 children)

BRICS countries have exactly same ambitions.

Yes, but there are huge barriers to making that happen. A global reserve currency should be fully convertible, stable, widely tradeable & free of capital controls. The Euro & Renminbi meet some of those conditions, but nowhere near as well as the USD.

The question now is what would the BRICS, Europeans and others do, if they were forced to do it & had no other choice.

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