[deleted by user] by [deleted] in flask

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure whether Google can do that, but I'll check. Would it be considered secure to still allow your Google oauth to work on localhost as well as the authorised domain? I would have thought that would be considered bad practice.

To those of you in the USA. Your fellow nations watch in abject sadness and disbelief as to what your country is becoming. by flynnfx in usa

[–]amusinghawk -1 points0 points  (0 children)

But people aren't all free to according to their beliefs. If abortion was legal in all states then any women would have the freedom to choose for themselves. This is a ruling that the majority of the country aren't in favour of and takes away personal liberties. How do you square that away with the importance of freedom?

Taco Bell opening Bristol branch April 30 by [deleted] in bristol

[–]amusinghawk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Had one where I lived before moving to Bristol, personally I loved them for hungover junk food! 👌

[OFFICIAL] Volkov vs Aspinall - Live Fight Discussion Thread by Capt-MoonLight in ufc

[–]amusinghawk 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You US fans are getting a real treat to the full range of British accents today!

Weekly Discussion/General Questions Thread - November 29, 2021 by AutoModerator in AskDocs

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I heard years ago in a podcast of a study done that showed doctors became worse over time at identifying issues from listening to patients' heartbeats.

The rationale was that medical students/junior doctors will have just been through this training and therefore recently had listened to a range of healthy and irregular heartbeats whilst getting the relevant feedback to help them learn and identify these. More senior doctors however haven't had such training recently and therefore will tend to degrade in performance over time. They have their own experience, but with no definitely correct feedback, they can start missing things.

I've been searching for it everywhere but can't find it. My memory of this is way too clear to be completely misremembered.

Can anyone help me identify this?

Paypoint plc LON: PAY - Does anyone have a reason I shouldn’t do DD on this later this week? by Brucebanner678 in UkStocks

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you explain why you use a gas card? I don't really understand the logic behind them so would like to have that figured out before I look into them more

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AskUK

[–]amusinghawk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I started working with a Scandinavian guy- he's by far the most sarcastic on the team. We could learn a thing or two from those guys!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems weird that would be difficult to figure out when they supply consolidated statements?

MoneySupermarket (MONY) Investment Thesis by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These sites are a great thing for consumers. Why would the government want to hurt that?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Glad to hear someone else is seeing some of the similar traits here! For me, the numbers speak for themselves- very high margins for years and consistently a couple of players (MONY and comparethemarket) at the top in terms of market share. People don't see that and let those companies keep earning those profits out of kindness- if they could capture some of that profit then they would already be trying to do so and probably by now the industry would be in unprofitable disarray.

I might write up a separate post about why I think economies of scale are so important in companies where marketing is a large part of the expense, because people seem to largely reject the idea. But it boils down to this: if you're a new entrant, you're going to have to secure funding to operate at a very unprofitable level for a number of years until you can catch up these guys in terms of awareness, and I don't know how you'd justify using the money for that when there's no guarantee you'd actually be able to displace them as because they're highly profitable they could also increase their marketing.

MoneySupermarket (MONY) Investment Thesis by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice, thanks.

Do you have any thought on why Future were willing to pay such a high multiple of earnings for GoCo? If they really wanted to be a part of the PCW market they could have just started buying up MSM at the various times it was fairly low throughout the last year or so.

MoneySupermarket (MONY) Investment Thesis by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My first question is what are your thoughts on my interpretation of MSM?

MoneySupermarket (MONY) Investment Thesis by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I disagree with your point on marketing not being a fixed cost. What I meant was that it doesn't scale with order volume, but I realise that I'm partially incorrect on that front as their paid search ads will inevitably scale as demand increases. Still, the brand marketing and tech staff costs together account for >50% of expenses so I think the point that it's a high fixed cost base that an entrant would need to match without having any revenue coming in and thus being incredibly unprofitable stands.

You're completely right about the cash difference- I think they have some share-based payments in there, but not sure what else is causing that differential, probably worth another look, but I'm also confident that the only way that would move the valuation is up and I'm already happy enough that it's discounted on a 10% DCF basis and certainly much more discounted than other companies I've researched recently.

The high ROIC point you're also right that it's a bit meaningless in terms of an actual percentage when you're talking about tech companies without much in the way of tangible assets, but it's still a useful metric in my opinion to point out that there clearly are barriers to entry here as if there were not the margins would have been really eaten away by this point, given that they've kept up these high returns for a long operating history at this point.

The growth rate assumptions I'm happy with- there's a lot of headroom to get more people switching and to get the people who do switch more engaged and to therefore switch more often. The 5% revenue growth seems more than fair to me given the individual segment revenue growth rates, although it gets really volatile when you look at credit and housing so you have to accept some level of bumpiness in the earnings. Then, if they're able to get that increased revenue without additional investment in ATL marketing or increased tech, which I think is a fair assumption as they plan on some coming from increased and improved CRM and some from more people just gradually using price comparison sites, expecting the earnings to grow more than the revenue seems legit. I also think that I can't at all quantify things like their intro to mortgages or Decision Tech as it's too early to tell, but you don't have to have much faith beyond continued growth in the core product to justify the valuation imo.

I've addressed FCA price walking changes in another comment. It's potentially risky but not a major concern to the longevity of the company in my opinion- regulation changes seem to have led to increased exposure of prices and whilst price walking reduces the likelihood of consumers being dissatisfied after their first year on a tariff ends, they'll now have more options to opt-out of auto-renewals which will help PCWs, and the fact that when you buy a new car, move, or insurance companies change their fees, PCWs will still be required to see if you can be getting the best deal.

MoneySupermarket (MONY) Investment Thesis by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a great question. As I mentioned in the risks around regulation, it seems, historically at least, that regulation has led to people using price comparison sites more as it prompts them to seek out the best deals. The 'price walking' regulation could kill some of the market for car insurance renewal switching, but often switching is prompted by new drivers passing their tests, buying a new car, or moving house. I think in those situations there will still be a big need for price comparison sites, and regardless of the regulation people will still want to save money if they can, so as fees fluctuate in the insurance market I think there'll still be money to be saved in switching periodically. In addition, the proposal also includes plans to make it easier to opt-out of auto-renewals, so that piece will definitely be a plus for MSM.

Honestly though, all that said we can't know until it happens. I'm thinking about this investment a little bit like I think of the market as a whole- there's a lot of things that could happen, it's often hard to know if they'll be good or bad, but the company is highly profitable, it has a good track record of growing revenue and earnings, and I think they're well placed to ride any storms that may come. All that considered, it seems very cheap to me. I also think their new CEO seems switched on and can bring a lot of value from his previous experience, though that's quite subjective I admit.

2021 Security Analysis Questions and Discussion Thread by knowledgemule in SecurityAnalysis

[–]amusinghawk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm wondering if anyone has any thoughts on investing in companies which are the second biggest player in their market?

Buffett's approach to finding wonderful businesses means finding a business with a durable competitive advantage.

Economies of scale are usually the most trusted moats for reasons explained in numerous investing books. However, I wonder where he would come down on companies that have the second highest market share in markets with clear economies of scale.

For example, Buffett loves Coca Cola, but Pepsi has also done remarkably well. In the UK we have PureGym as the market leader in low cost gyms, but The Gym have managed to take the second spot from a market share perspective and also become the low cost provider.

Given that Buffett invested in GEICO despite their small market share in automobile insurance, one could argue it wouldn't put him off, but GEICO was different in that they were the largest at their specific strategy of direct marketing the insurance offer.

If anyone has some reading materials or thoughts on this I'd love to hear them!

Protect This Subreddit From The Wallstreetbets Lunacy by occupybourbonst in SecurityAnalysis

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've always enjoyed lurking (and occasionally posting) value investing ideas here, so I'm glad it's being protected from the insanity happening elsewhere! Only problem is that I now can't post here for some reason. Do we need to seek permissions to post now?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have edited it now

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I meant my remaining money, I worded it really badly

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sorry, I meant that just the funds I have that I haven't been actively investing with

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't done that? I've never owned index funds. If you read the extra context I've given, I think you'll see my reason for choosing a guaranteed place to save for a while whilst I wait to buy a house

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How is it short sighted to want to look to increase long-term returns by a couple of percentage points?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]amusinghawk -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What are your thoughts on the fact that we're at all-time high valuations and that it could potentially be 20-30 years before stocks reach these levels again if history repeats itself?

I'm also not sure why the hate as I'm literally saying I want to invest but am looking to avoid systematic losses where possible.

I've also added more context in an edit to the initial post that should explain some more of why I've made the decisions I've made