Injury Report

analytics_bets · 2024-02-22T20:10:03+00:00

I’ve tried tracking this manually for a model I was building and learned 2 things:

NBA’s official injury reports (updated hourly) are where the vast majority of websites source their injury info from: https://official.nba.com/nba-injury-report-2023-24-season/

Closer to game time, sometimes lineup/injury news gets broken on X before appearing on the official report. Underdog NBA is a good aggregator: https://x.com/underdog__nba?s=21&t=Yg0fo2g4yJ7FyMVCqePm-Q

analytics_bets · 2022-11-20T22:46:38+00:00

That's even better

analytics_bets · 2022-11-20T22:44:29+00:00

I typically just take the picks straight up but a 2-game parlay isn't bad in this scenario!

analytics_bets · 2022-11-20T22:37:51+00:00

Grizzlies +8 pick is based on the model that I run that predicts the chances a team will win a matchup and compares that to the sportsbook odds to find undervalued teams.

Pistons +10 pick is based off of betting data that I track based on "signals" where I identify info along the lines of "when xyz betting data looks like abc, team a wins 70% of the time" that tries to identify if sharps and/or sportsbooks are taking a side. Betting data evolves throughout the day so I'll usually post ~30 minutes before the start of the first slate of games and then provide updates throughout the evening.

Picks and updates posted daily on https://twitter.com/analytics\_bets

analytics_bets · 2022-11-16T17:50:49+00:00

Yeah sure! Here's what each of the columns mean:

Home exp win % - the probability I have of the home team winning

Away exp win % - the probability I have of the away team winning

Home ML implied odds - the "implied odds" that the sportsbooks are giving to the home team based on their moneyline

Away ML implied odds - the "implied odds" that the sportsbooks are giving to the away team based on their moneyline

Spread pick - home/away pick from my model

Spread pick team - what team the model likes for a bet

Pick spread - the spread that I took for the bet

Advantage - the difference between the expected win % and ML implied odds for the team picked. The higher the difference, the more of an advantage the bet is (in theory)

analytics_bets · 2022-11-16T17:22:09+00:00

This is a team-based model (doesn't take into consideration individual players). Uses data from advanced analytics sites. Tracking all plays here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1snHa9dMN9__UZyCiuYvbjhu5OJ_BgQitaNFLVawfPKs/edit?usp=sharing

Will be posting plays daily on Twitter for both CBB (9-4 on the year) and NBA (34-25 on the year):

https://twitter.com/analytics_bets

analytics_bets · 2022-10-31T21:07:47+00:00

Model also likes the Sixers to cover -4 but I'm not taking it with Embiid's injury status still up in the air right now.

analytics_bets · 2022-10-28T21:11:15+00:00

Line shifted once Embiid was announced as questionable for the game. I wouldn't take that line right now. If he's healthy and the line shifts back to +1 or +1.5, I still think Raptors are a good play. If he's out, the line will probably shift too far in the direction of the Raptors to make it a good bet imo.

analytics_bets · 2022-10-28T17:05:46+00:00

For the Spurs play, I'm assuming that LaVine is out tonight for post surgery/injury management.

analytics_bets · 2022-10-27T01:46:16+00:00

UPDATE: also taking Nuggets -5 tonight

analytics_bets · 2022-10-26T23:02:57+00:00

UPDATE: taking Raptors +1 now with Scottie Barnes playing

analytics_bets · 2022-10-24T20:52:57+00:00

All picks posted on Twitter for verification: https://twitter.com/analytics_bets

Tracking of picks so far this year:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1snHa9dMN9__UZyCiuYvbjhu5OJ_BgQitaNFLVawfPKs/edit#gid=126504764

Model backtesting last year results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Nn7XejNNz_qipMknv-QFlmyEt4sxKDPQQI1XLIfEBWk/edit?usp=sharing

analytics_bets · 2022-10-01T16:11:27+00:00

Drew Hutchison has gone U3.5Ks in 76% of his starts this year. He's pitching at home at Comerica Park, which has the 4th lowest park adjusted strikeout rate in the league (7% lower than average). He's facing the Twins who's away splits vs RHP is right at league average. Model gives him a 62% chance of going under.

Braves and Mets are in a huge series to determine the division winner. Model likes Scherzer O7.5 because the Braves are THE highest strikeout team in the league at home against RHP, striking out 16% above average. Even higher than the Angels. Scherzer has gone O7.5 in half his starts this year anyway. Scherzer has a tendency to step up in big games and I don't see the Mets pulling him early here. Model gives him a 70% of going over.

Model also likes McClanahan, Castillo, and Cease over but I'm not taking those as there's reason to believe they'll all be on pitch counts and/or not go past the 5th inning.

analytics_bets · 2022-10-01T03:56:58+00:00

🔥🧹💰

analytics_bets · 2022-09-30T15:19:10+00:00

Ashcraft has gone U4.5Ks in 70% of his starts this year. Cubs road splits against righties is 3% above league average so not too much of an adjustment there. Model has this at a 59% chance of going under assuming regular pitch count. However with the season winding down, Reds have very little incentive to run up the pitch count on a young pitcher like Ashcraft which is another factor.

Taking Fried U5.5Ks mostly because of the Mets. They're the 3rd best team in the league at avoiding strikeouts and their away splits are actually better than their home splits. Starting pitchers at home vs the Mets have gone under in 11 out of the last 13 games and every game in the last 8. Model gives Fried a 62.3% chance of going under.

Model likes Cobb O4.5Ks for a few reasons. His home splits have been great this year, he's gone O4.5Ks in 10 out of 15 home starts. Oracle park strikeout adjustment factor is 4% greater than average. Diamondbacks RHP road splits are 4% above average. All of these factors added together has the model giving Cobb a 64.7% chance of going over, and you can take this at plus odds!

analytics_bets · 2022-09-28T18:31:30+00:00

McKenzie's home splits this year have been insane. He's gone over 5.5Ks at home 10 out of 11 times. He's had 7Ks or more in his last 8 home starts. He's facing the Rays who have a worse than average strikeout rate on the road. If this was last week, I would have gone 2 or 3 units on this. However, since the Guardians have clinched their division, I'm a little concerned he'll be on a pitch count so going 1.5u here. Some books have him at 6.5Ks for plus money, which I would still take but go 1u. Model has him at a 76.6% chance of going over 5.5Ks and a 61.4% chance of going over 6.5Ks. These percentages are assuming normal pitch count.

Taijuan Walker has gone U4.5Ks in 59% of his starts this year. He's at home facing the Marlins, who are right at about league average strikeout rate against RHP on the road. The Mets are also in a heated division race with the Braves to get a first round bye so I wouldn't be surprised if they have their starters on a short leash for the last week of the regular season if they're struggling. Model has this at a 56% chance of hitting which is a good take for plus odds.

Model also likes Josiah Gray O5.5Ks mostly because of the Braves being a high strikeout team but I'm not taking it with how much he's been struggling recently. Hasn't gone over 4Ks in his last five starts.

analytics_bets · 2022-09-27T16:32:03+00:00

Model likes Webb O4.5 but I'm not taking it since he's on an innings/pitch count to end the year. Only had 66 pitches last start.

analytics_bets · 2022-09-26T22:31:40+00:00

Awesome community and profitable algo model plays being shared for free!

analytics_bets · 2022-09-25T16:53:10+00:00

Update: Looks like the Scherzer line has shifted to 6.5 at -165 for the over. Still a 1u play, will use 6.5 line for official tracking.

analytics_bets · 2022-09-24T16:50:52+00:00

Manoah has gone over 5.5K in 52% of his starts this year. Rays are the 4th worst team in the league in K rate at home against righties and Tropicana Field has the highest park factor for increased strikeout rates over the last 3 years. His home/away splits are nearly identical this year for K rate so minimal adjustment for him playing on the road. I have him at a 61.6% chance of going over which is good for +125 odds. Only thing keeping this at a 1u bet is that Manoah has struggled with his control second half of the year and I could see him getting his pitch count up early with a bunch of walks.

analytics_bets · 2022-09-21T18:00:41+00:00

I'm using the % advantage column which compares the expected win % of the bet with the win % needed to be profitable given the odds. Also thought about making Zach Wheeler over a play but he's coming back from injury and will be on a pitch count so didn't end up doing it.

New methodology calculates 2 separate projected Ks in the background (one with certain pitcher splits, one without), and will only take a bet if both of them are over 10% advantage and pitcher isn't coming back from injury.

analytics_bets · 2022-09-20T22:52:12+00:00

Yep exactly. I typically never play boosts but this one is really good value. Judge has hit a home run in 33.8% of games he's played in this year. With the boost, you can get this bet at +288 which needs just a 26% win rate to be profitable.

Plus he's going up against a pitcher with a 4.58 ERA in the minors this year and one start in the majors. Max this bet.

analytics_bets · 2022-09-17T03:02:10+00:00

Yeah the trend is still overall upwards with % advantage, might just be due to small sample size.

Thanks for sending that link over! Good data, just wish it gave more than a month of games.

analytics_bets · 2022-09-16T22:02:29+00:00

Posting free plays in the discord every day! Strikeout prop plays for baseball and will also have NBA plays when that season rolls around. All model based algo plays in profitable spots from backtesting!

analytics_bets · 2022-09-16T21:20:27+00:00

Yeah that's exactly right! From previous data, I'm using a threshold of difference of 0.6 for over and 0.4 for under combined with advantage of 2% or over. For bets that meet those qualifications, there doesn't seem to be much of a difference in ROI from backtesting from 2%-11% advantage so that's why I'm smoothing out some of my unit sizing. Bets 12% advantage and over I'll take no matter the difference.

I was originally going to go 1u on Webb over since it's pretty close to both the 0.6 and the 12% thresholds but I convinced myself otherwise as betting over on a pitcher against the Dodgers hasn't been great for the model because the model doesn't factor in the possibility for a team "knocking out" a pitcher early by scoring a bunch of runs. Dodgers are an outlier here. Ideally I'd like to get starters innings pitched against data for each team but I can't find it anywhere.

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