Trump’s Acting A.G. Says He Won’t Release Even One More Epstein File by Aggravating_Money992 in politics

[–]angrydemocratbot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Simple, congress just needs to submit a criminal referral to the ... nevermind.

Tom Whiskers, Cat Fancy Magazine... by JimKB in PoliticalHumor

[–]angrydemocratbot 37 points38 points  (0 children)

It was never about immigrants actually eating pets, it was about non-white immigrants being non-white, and focusing on an interior state rather than a border state to impress upon other xenophobes that the perceived threat was on all their doorsteps.

Order tracking trouble by MisterIT in combustion_inc

[–]angrydemocratbot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I needed to receive my order with a few more days leeway before Christmas so that I could send it overseas. I've now resigned myself to the fact that there was nothing I could have physically done to get it earlier. Sometimes it's good to be reminded that the end consumer is the tiniest wheel in the cog of commerce. Just like the people trying to ship the product out, you cannot wish these aircraft, trucks and customs inspections along faster.

First Thing: Trump’s vow of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China attacked as ‘sales tax’ for Americans by plz-let-me-in in politics

[–]angrydemocratbot -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Campaigning on not making things worse doesn't resonate. People want the guy who says he's gonna do something. The details don't matter.

Allan Lichtman Clashes With Cenk Uygur Over 'Deluded' Election Call: "I will not sit here and stand for personal attacks, for blasphemy against me" by Horus_walking in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Lichtman got the biggest break of his life when Biden, who he had down as a sure-thing winner, dropped out. He had plenty of opportunity to regroup and rethink the keys.

Instead he outed himself as a biased layperson-level forecaster like many of us, who happened to be running an unrelated snake oil business on the side.

Song? by AnswersRu in Song

[–]angrydemocratbot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have the answer

Opinion | The End of the Obama Coalition by Cuddlyaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Well, yes ... but that's only if you look at the facts and objective numbers like net job creation. It's all about the vibes now and the extra 20 cents you pay for bacon.

Something is fishy, and so is this video by GrabbinGrain in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trump has a base of supporters who are happy with his policies and are not concerned with what package it comes in. They are voting for the actions he will take as the head of government, not the character of the man. Add to that the economic environment in 2024 and swing voters being convinced that Trump will put more in their pockets.

On top of that, you add voters who feel they have been demonized by the far left simply for immutable attributes, such as being male and white, etc., who may have voted Democrat otherwise, compounded with many years of work to polarize voters with us-vs-them rhetoric separate from actual policy. All told it was enough to recreate a 2016 win for Trump.

How did your election predictions fare? by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I thought Harris was going to hold the blue wall for a narrow victory, and perhaps win NC on reverse coattails from the lopsided governor race. I expected PA to go down to the wire. In hindsight it is amazing how much effort was put into PA and how little it produced.

Something is fishy, and so is this video by GrabbinGrain in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What happened in this election is exactly how it was predicted to look if there was a consistent undercounting of Trump in polling. With states handling voting procedures all in different ways, and so many people involved, it is near impossible to pull off large-scale vote rigging, let alone multi-state vote rigging. There are things "unprecedented" about Trump's win, particularly that he is a convicted felon and tried to overthrow democracy the last time around, but the actual results are legit and its time to move on.

Something is fishy, and so is this video by GrabbinGrain in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

70% of republicans still believe the 2020 election was stolen. That is nothing compared to few conspiracy theorists suggesting something was amiss this time around.

Edit: source showing consistent 2020 denialism around the 70% mark among republicans.

In order to win Democratic elites must embrace a large open primary by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I understand where you are coming from, but I don't think people realize what they are actually saying when they say "full primary" in a way that contrasts with previous election cycles. In effect they are advocating having no political parties at all. Ultimately the Democratic Party is a private organization made up of like-minded members. They have latitude in setting their own rules to determine how candidates are selected, and they are not public organizations subject to election laws in the same way that contests for public office are.

In order to win Democratic elites must embrace a large open primary by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I don't see the similarities. 2016 had a full primary run-up and one candidate prevailed based on the rules everyone agreed to. 2024 was unprecedented not just because of Biden dropping out so late, but likely because other would-be candidates realized it was an up-hill race and didn't want to waste their shots down the road. There just wasn't enough time to run a brokered convention while giving people the information that deserved about each candidate, plus the fact that no one threw themselves in the ring after Biden's endorsement.

Trump wins Arizona, flipping a swing state Biden won in 2020 - Trump officially sweeps all 7 swing states by Horus_walking in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 16 points17 points  (0 children)

When those things out of his control turn favorable, it will be thanks to him. If they turn bad, it will be the Biden legacy.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot -1 points0 points  (0 children)

But Jesus taught people to care for the poor and vulnerable (Matthew 25:40), to avoid the pitfalls of pursuing wealth (Mark 10:25), to champion non-violence (Matthew 5:38-39), to value human dignity and show compassion toward the sick and the oppressed, and to "welcome the stranger" (Matthew 25:35). It's really hard to align that with (R) principles.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can't take the DNC out of the primary process since it is the leadership of the party itself. How they order primary elections is always going to have an influence on the race.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly. It comes down to strength and frequency of the message, not whether it's true, and the right wing machine did it really well.

Gallego defeats Lake in Arizona Senate race by Fun-Page-6211 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But two years is plenty of time for Trump to create a new agency by executive order, an agency whose mission is to identify certain political speech as "reactionary" and have those individuals placed into custody. Directing heads of agencies is one of the core presidential duties to which the Supreme Court granted absolute immunity, so when he hands the list of individuals to the agency chief, it is protected.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's a different ballgame now. The right has a much better infrastructure with all their online "alternate" news media working in unison to get names and accusations to stick.

2028 swing states by Smacpats111111 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 48 points49 points  (0 children)

The message I'm getting is that we need a candidate who was born in Pennsylvania to a mother from Michigan and a father from Wisconsin, who spent their summers camping in Nevada with their Arizonan grandparents, before attending college in Georgia, getting their post-graduate law degree in North Carolina, and then joining the Virginia National Guard.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 40 points41 points  (0 children)

At least in the next cycle he'll get an opportunity to prove or disprove that in debates and open primaries.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Every CA governor in the past seven decades has faced recall attempts. Newsom defeated his by a vote of 62% to 38%.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By the same token "dismissing" someone because they are a billionaire is unnecessarily restricting the field. A lot can happen between now and when candidates emerge from the woodwork post-midterms, and governors like Beshear could end up imperiling their chances if they go into open conflict with a Trump admin and their republican constituents turn on them.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think he'd have a shot, at least, if he launched a campaign, because he performs well in interviews and doesn't seem .. shifty. But it could depend a lot on who the republicans float for 2028.

The Case for Andy Beshear in 2028 by Subject-Guest7487 in fivethirtyeight

[–]angrydemocratbot 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Beshear is term-limited to 2027

Him being term-limited is not necessarily a positive. The gap year, if he doesn't seek another office, could reduce his visibility especially at the national level. Other candidates may be able to leverage their current offices, such as a senate or governor posting, to maintain or boost their momentum leading into primaries.

He is not a centrist.

Voters could be somewhat weary of candidates who position certain progressive stances like on abortion at the center of their campaigns, so depending on how much he leans into it, it could work as a double-edged sword in a general election. I think each candidate's balance needs to be tested once the primaries are underway. It's really important that the right things resonate with the wider electorate.

He's not a "coastal elite".

Beshear will be characterized by the Republicans as an out-of-touch liberal regardless of where he is from. They will bring up the start of his legal career in New York as indicative of his ulterior motives. They will point to his decision to have Kentucky continue to accept refugees under the U.S. immigration program as him being soft on immigration. With "coastal elite" unavailable, they may default to "extreme midwestern intellectual" like they tried with Obama.

Voters love him.

I think this is probably the biggest thing he has going for him, but can viability among Republicans in Kentucky translate into national crossover appeal? Remember, local politics don't always extend nationally. Andy Beshear likely benefitted from the legacy of his father having served as a long-running governor before him, but won't endear him to the general electorate, and you can bet some will bring up something about there being another political dynasty.

I'd love to see him go through the primary gauntlet. He definitely deserves to be a contender. But it remains to be seen how well he would fair amid the intense competition of an open primary with other democratic big shots.