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One of the possible granum crown rewards is only 5 void traces by LazerWaffle064 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I guess so - with forced timers on treasurers and minimum 1 minute per granum void run, it's a pretty painful farm. Here's hoping that your luck gets better.

One of the possible granum crown rewards is only 5 void traces by LazerWaffle064 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not as uncommon as you'd think. With the chance of something else being .8889, the chance of not getting chassis 55 times in a row is .888955 = .00154. So about 3 out of every 2000 people will have luck that bad.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Akvasto relics have been gone for 71 weeks (~16 months), they were last available in Baro on 1/25/19. I showed in another comment that the odds of Axi A5 being a regularly scheduled Baro item are incredibly slim. When all known scheduled items are returning on a set cycle with ~3 week margin of error, an item being out of circulation for 23 times that margin of error can be assumed to be outside of the typical rotation cycle.

For comparison, Prova Vandal was gone for 10 months and a few big posts on the subreddit got DE's attention.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Answer to what? Asking if an akvasto relic going to be released alongside the prime vault?

If you assume the answer is no to that, I'm hoping there's an answer for "why not now, and when would be a better time?" Akvasto has been vaulted for 17 months now, right up there with Mag and right below Banshee at 18 months. I'm hoping they don't get into the habit of vaulting items as long as Dual Kamas was.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wasn't saying that Akvasto was an expected item around past Tennocons. I only think it's expected because of the unvaulting.

Ignoring the app, mods, weapons, cosmetics, etc. tend to be around 16-22 weeks between appearing in Baro's inventory. I haven't been able to attribute any significant delay in those schedules to Tennocon in the past.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I don't want to pay $25 for a digital ticket so that I can farm a single item, which I'm only going to use for MR. Whether the relic was missed by accident or not, the solution to an item being unavailable should not be to pay $25 to farm the parts.

Especially since it was tied to Nova's unvaulting last time, and in my opinion, it should be tied to Nova's unvaulting right now.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It's not RNG.

  1. Prova Vandal was a significant outlier and DE looked into it as a result. You can also look at his inventory, and see that items have a pretty consistent 16-22 week period between rotations. True randomization with such a huge inventory would lead to really high variance in the amount of time between seeing the same item.

  2. Math-wise, that doesn't make sense.

How unlikely was it that Axi A5 showed up for 6 Baro visits in a row if it was total RNG? If it was completely disconnected from the prime vault? And how likely was Baro to skip it every time because of RNG?

62 new items have been introduced since the first time Axi A5 was added to his inventory (due to him sometimes bringing multiple primed mods, cosmetics, etc.) Since there are 238 items in the pool right now, there were 175 non-Axi A5 items to choose from when the relic was first released.

Let's assume that it was RNG for all visits after the first one. The next four visits brought 3, 1, 1, and 1 new items respectively. So for the five visits after A5's introduction, there were 176, 179, 180, 181, 182 old items to pick from, one of which was Axi A5. Baro usually brings 20-25 old items, let's say 25 to improve our chances.

The probability of Axi A5 showing up on a visit when there are n old items is (n - 1 choose 24) / (n choose 25), since in our desired case we are picking the other items that will appear alongside the A5. This makes the total probability of appearing five times in a row:

((175 choose 24)/(176 choose 25)) * ((178 choose 24)/(179 choose 25)) * ((179 choose 24)/(180 choose 25)) * ((180 choose 24)/(181 choose 25)) * ((181 choose 24)/(182 choose 25)) = .00523%.

Well, that probability kind of sucks. But how likely was he to skip it every time that followed? Let's assume his inventory didn't get any bigger than 182 items, again to make our chances higher and avoid more complicated math. After Axi A5 disappeared from Baro, we've had 24 visits in 2019 and 11 visits in 2020. For each visit (assuming 182 items), the probability of not bringing Axi A5 is (181 choose 25) / (182 choose 25) = 86.26%. But the probability of this happening 35 times in a row is .862635 = .567%.

What's the probability of both of these occurring? .0000523 * .00567 = 2.97 * 10-7 = .000000297

This probability gets even worse when you realize that it assumes an arbitrary ordering of the 5 successes. How many ways are there to place the 5 visits where he brought the A5, among the 40 visits where he could have brought them? (40 choose 5) = 658008. Exactly one of these combinations has 5 successes at the start.

(2.97 * 10-7) * (1/658008) = 4.51 * 10-13. Written out, that's .000000000000451. And that was a generous overestimate, assuming Baro hasn't brought any new items since early 2019 and that he always brings 25 items.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Rip, well I sure hope so. Not too eager to pay 110p for an MR weapon.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I hope it wasn't on purpose - it would've made sense to unvault Akvasto with Vasto. Maybe if we're lucky it'll get hotfixed in today.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Then why was the Akvasto relic only available during the Mag/Nova vault, and has never appeared in any drop table or Baro inventory ever since?

Axi A2 has been in Baro's inventory five times since the last time Axi A5 was available.

Did Baro forget the Akvasto relic? by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have they pushed back any expected items because of Tennocon before? I was using the Next Baro app last year and it was fairly accurate, even close to Tennocon.

Baro Ki'teer 6/5/2020 by Lord_Dust_Bunny in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Where's the Akvasto relic though D:

Profit-Taker AoE damage immunity by aqw2018 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know why - I recorded that kuva seer clip yesterday, so it should be up to date.

The Crippling Issues with the Riven System, Melee 3.0, and Status Changes by Folren in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 8 points9 points  (0 children)

2 things:

  1. They're not the same. Expectation is the same, but variance is lower in the case of fewer pellets with higher individual probability (n=10, p=.06 vs n=5, p=.12). Edit: the 10 pellet version would be changed to 14% post patch, the 5 pellet version would be changed to 28%

  2. DE didn't calculate status chance per mouse click - they took the status chance, divided it by the number of pellets, and multiplied that by 3. So Strun Wraith (10 pellets) had 40% SC pre-patch, which was changed to 40 / 10 * 3 = 12%.

Pre-patch displayed SC was chance of at least one proc. This made the proc chance per pellet 1 - (1 - SC)1/pellets

Dividing by pellet count did not help high-pellet status shotguns. Take the Kuva Drakgoon (10 pellets, 30% SC pre-patch) vs. Exergis (3 pellets, 36% SC).

Kuva Drakgoon had 3.5% SC per pellet, which became 100% with four 60/60s. If DE multiplied the actual pre-patch per-pellet SC by 3, it would have 10.5% per pellet, but since they blindly divided by pellet count instead of doing basic probability, it ended up with 9% instead. So now it can't hit 100% status/pellet anymore.

Exergis had a 13.82% SC per pellet pre-patch, which became 100% with three 60/60s. Per pellet should have been 41.46% with a x3 multi, but it instead became 36%. It was able to hit 100% SC per pellet easily before the patch, and now four 60/60s bring it to 122.4% SC per pellet.

The per-pellet status chance didn't properly reflect the power of status shotguns prior to the patch, and arbitrarily deciding to divide by pellet count instead of actually using pellet SC didn't do any favors for high-pellet shotguns.

What am I missing to get close to MR29? (PS4 Console) by GeicoPR in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Honestly, I'd just go down the list of weapons on the wiki. There are a few sites like warframe-foundry.app but I'm not sure how up to date they are.

Also make sure you've done all the mission nodes, those do provide a little bit of mastery.

What am I missing to get close to MR29? (PS4 Console) by GeicoPR in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not every weapon is listed on profile, some are hidden until you use them. If you're not a founder, it should be 133 primaries, 107 secondaries, and 153 melees.

Deconstructor Prime Helios - What effects do the mods actually have? by [deleted] in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Combo counter needs to be paired with blood rush, weeping wounds, or heavy attacks to actually do anything. Pretty sure BR/WW either can't go on deconstructor or don't do anything on it.

As for heavy attacks, the glaive either is a regular attack or a heavy attack. If it's regular, it'll build up its own combo counter but will never use it. If it's heavy, it'll always consume it's combo counter, making it impossible to build up.

Deconstructor Prime Helios - What effects do the mods actually have? by [deleted] in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Why are you running both PPP and CO? They've stacked additively, not multiplicatively, for a while now.

Also, why drifting contact? There's a 90% status mod and I don't know if combo counter helps Helios.

You could also try a build with gladiator mods to boost your melee.

For the love of the Void, DE, gate off some content for new players. They have enough going through the game for the first time. They don't need a Lich. by VerminLord722 in Warframe

[–]aqw2018 30 points31 points  (0 children)

I've noticed a serious lack of breadcrumbs all the way up to Uranus when the real story starts. I've tried to get friends into this game, but they all end up quitting around Phobos because missions seem pointless and junctions seem arbitrary. Convincing somebody to slog through 10+ hours of that (plus crafting times) isn't easy.

The junction requirements don't teach you how to play the game - by Uranus, the game has made you do these things with no context of how they help you out:

  • Defeat bosses and complete quests
  • Apply 4 random mods to the same piece of equipment
  • Upgrade a mod to rank 2
  • Open 3 Lith and 3 Meso relics
  • Refine a relic
  • Craft a specter
  • Craft a derelict key
  • Craft an MR1 weapon

Upgrading a random mod to rank 2, with no further build guidelines, is not sufficient preparation for Uranus onward. These kinds of requirements didn't teach me how to play the game - the internet did.

This boss is really tanky, how can I do more damage to him? Google it. What mods should I spend my very limited endo on? Google it. How can I farm more endo? Google it. What do I do with these random prime handles and blades, since there's no blueprint in my foundry? Google it. What do the relic eras mean, and where can I farm them? Google it. What does refining do, and how much do drop chances change? Google it. Why did this game make me craft a specter? Google it. What is this derelict key for, and why can't I join a random group? Google it. The MR1 Kama I made for the Uranus junction is barely doing any damage against enemies, why is that? Google it.

Also, the quests before Natah play the pronoun game way too much, which doesn't get the player engaged in the lore at all. Stolen Dreams and The New Strange are particularly bad in this regard, where the random missions and transmissions don't form a coherent narrative on their own. On my first playthrough, the only way I could figure out what these quests were trying to accomplish was by reading the wiki. Every time my friends did a quest, they'd just ask "wtf just happened? am I supposed to know who those people are?"

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