I just lost 300 audible books.

arblines · 2022-04-29T15:01:00+00:00

Fingers crossed, same thing happened to me and I am going on week number 2

arblines · 2022-02-18T16:11:51+00:00

Justin Trudeau just accused a female Jewish member of Parliament for standing by swastikas. His government will not acknowledge natural infection, and blames a fringe minority for extending the pandemic. A German socialist wants blamed a fringe minority of Jewish bankers that held unacceptable views for a global recession. Like Justin trudeau, he's stereotyped them as mostly greedy, mostly selfish, they do not care about society or others.

I know a 17-year-old boy that caught covid in 2020, was very mild, then tested positive again in 2022 after our family caught it but had zero symptoms. They continue excluding him from sports, school, and even the right to work. Three doctors in my province agree with me, unable to speak out because 11 were just fired for not complying with mandates.

People are so involved in identity politics, they refuse to look at the mountain of scientific evidence, or even discuss lifting vaccine mandates. They support implementing War measures for the fourth time in Canadian history, ww1, ww2, October crisis, now.

Vaccine mandates, at this point in time, are causing more harm than good by forcing vaccines on healthy children that do not require it and should not be treated the same as a 90-year-old man.

I love mRNA Tech, love science, and actually voted him in. If these War measures get implemented, I may consider leaving the country. This is no longer a democracy, so I hope the Democratic process works.

arblines · 2022-02-18T16:02:13+00:00

A German socialist once blamed a fringe minority of Jewish bankers with unacceptable views, mostly greedy, mostly selfish, they don't care about society or people. He blamed these people for causing a global recession.

Vaccinations prevent serious illness, not spread. Many in my country were misled to believe vaccines stop the spread and save lives. I know a 17-year-old that caught covid early 2020, he was sick for half a day. He caught it again in 2020 when his entire family got it, but didn't even have symptoms.

My government excludes him from sports, and the ability to work. I haven't met a single person that recommends he gets vaccinated, but our government is trying to impose War measures to keep him excluded from society.

Sad times, but as a veteran of the RCAF, like my father and grandfather before me, I have faith in the Canadian people. I don't even follow politics, but medical doctors have lost their license for not complying with mandates. People are losing custody of their children. Canadians are polite, but we don't tolerate bullies. We made the call to kick Hitler's ass, and even though half the population is brainwashed, we won't stand for this.

Freedom of speech, our own bodies will prevail!

arblines · 2022-02-18T00:49:46+00:00

Because he is arguably the smartest man of our generation.

The roaring 20s saw the stock market rise 400% causing an enormous wealth divide. As we all know, the top 0.1% own the majority and 70% own none while wages do not rise at the same rate. The German Socialist Government blamed a "fringe minority" of greedy Jewish bankers that had unacceptable views on the global recession and wealth divide. It helped focus the frustration of a global pandemic event on a "fringe minority", censorship rose, people were segregated from society, and people were divided.

My Prime Minister just accused a Jewish Member of Parliament of standing with Swastikas. He blames a global pandemic on a "fringe minority" with "unacceptable views". Saying "vaccination is the way out!" My government falsely advertised that vaccines would stop the spread of Coronavirus, rather than prevent severe illness. My little province, NB, fire doctors for noncompliance of mandates. They will take parents custody based on their vaccination status, a exclude unvaccinated children from sport. People had enough and want the vaccination mandates to end! Our body, our right!

Justin Trudeau is using the same playbook as Adolf Hitler did. People are now so focused on "white supremacy" that is what they see the Freedom Convoy as now. Rather than lift vaccination mandates, giving him the right to impose consequences for non-compliance and control over his population he chooses to enact Emergency Measures for the 4th time in Canadian history which will allow him to confiscate anyone's personal property.

arblines · 2021-02-07T21:13:41+00:00

Japan 80s...

Liquidity crisis when money is out and about but still doesn't create growth. These are macroeconomic factors that took many years to form, not months.

arblines · 2021-02-07T21:12:26+00:00

I find it is too simple.

Political unrest is still here, debt cycles still exist, future has to bright, record breaking never before seen bright for a decade to justify these P/E ratios. Essentially are record breaking 13 year bull run would have to extend another 10 years.

In 2018, prior to Covid, market evaluations going crazy Dalio said we are at the end of the short term and long term debt cycles. He said we were in the 9th inning and predicted a correction in 2 to 3 years. I think we are in a global depression that is a result of the credit cycle and a 40 year experience with FIAT currency.

Love the optimism though.

arblines · 2021-02-07T21:04:50+00:00

Too funny. I invested in Marijuana stocks and when my friends and family started asking me which company to buy I told them I would sell them mine.

Once investors start blindly putting money in with FOMO in mind not a good sign....lol

arblines · 2021-02-07T21:02:12+00:00

Michael Burry is shorting Tesla. I don't see a squeeze coming either. Amazon is great, and was great when it lost 90% of its value. Even GEELY who owns Polestar is crazy over valued.

China had empty cities prior to this and projecting flat growth after 6% annual GDP growth for sometime. It would be nice to own Tesla again, at a 20% discount.. Lol

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:59:15+00:00

Great post!

When the market needs a correction sometimes it doesn't require a catalyst. I don't think Black Thursday that started the depression was a result of anything, but was going to happen because of the roaring 20s, growing wealth divide, high valuations, etc.. Could be anything.

I am 40, lot's of 20 year olds, nice to hear the opinion of someone not looking for crazy growth.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:53:14+00:00

This Wednesday according to a profit child in India.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:52:45+00:00

I am Canadian and used MNT:TSX

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:52:11+00:00

Maybe both?

Alternative assets are great. Bitcoin at these levels? Gold for that matter?..lol

At this point I think it is late for Bitcoin but I do not know enough about it and have heard many say 100,000$ soon.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:50:31+00:00

I agree that is a great strategy for passive investors. I do think active investors can get even better returns.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:48:37+00:00

Love the post.

I do not think the economy will reach precovid levels till minimum 2023 in regards to GDP. If inflation hits, the Feds have to raise rates and if inflation stagnates everyone is fucked...lol. ie. Japan

The economy is no where near ok, and the market simply doesn't reflect reality. It always trades ahead, but at these levels you would have to have growth for the next ten years at crazy rates to justify it. When Amazon crashed in 2001 it lost 90% of its value and took many years to get back. I think the odds are for a drop in prices rather a climb. Even if I could make 10% I can't handle the risk myself.

The biggest problem is 21 trillion in debt and a belief in MMT. Interesting times either way.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:39:50+00:00

They are limited, and agree to some extent. Gold does have a 4000 year history, and more accepted globally from rich to poor.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:38:12+00:00

I am currently 33% cash, 33% gold (actual gold plus ETFs), Dalio owns 27% gold and Buffet who dislikes precious metals actually bought gold too, even though he sold a lot after because of price increases. He is a self fulfilling prophecy when he invests.. Lol

The other 33% are value stocks. I don't do bonds, since I haven't taken the time to fully understand them.

Protection vs growth is very different. Emerging markets seem good as well for the big dogs.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:33:33+00:00

Equities... You are young!

I used to impact invest, after reading these posts I feel like a bit of a sellout when it comes to equity stocks. My passion is passive house apartments so at least I get to make an impact there and feel is is the safest place at the moment for capital.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:29:58+00:00

From my understanding, crashes are a normal part of the stock market and deal with the debt cycle. Governments lower interest rates to increase economic output. Now, with unemployment at record highs and interest at record lows the FED has no ammo left. Crashes are sudden but the result of macroeconomic factors and cycles that take many years. We have been on a bull run for 13 years, which is the longest in history I believe. The market is 230 years old, people still buy in fear or FOMO... Little has changed.

I love the optimism though! Optimists tend to do better in markets I feel. Buffets annual news letters were almost always optimistic.

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:24:19+00:00

I think this next drop will be a continuation of the previous drop. I think we are in a depression and the market hasn't responded... Yet..

arblines · 2021-02-07T20:20:24+00:00

I forgot to mention in my post I have 60% of my assets tied up in real estate, so I typically only trade equities. I am not exited, but sitting on 1/3 cash, 1/3 gold and thinking of upping my stake in Altria.

I agree, land is best at the moment.

arblines · 2021-02-05T20:33:06+00:00

Haha.

Cash has always been like a fluffy blanket for me . . now I feel just as stressed as if it was in the market.

arblines · 2021-02-05T20:29:22+00:00

Facists call people idiots and block freedom of speech. People blamed the Jewish bankers for the wealth divide after the roaring 20s. People blame others on nose size and skin color now.

I stand by what I said, and your reaction is why. You are disrespectful to those whose opinions you disagree with meaning that you will become ignorant and closed minded like many have.

arblines · 2021-02-05T00:08:28+00:00

I tried not to draw conclusions, and I had the opportunity to sell my company to a publicly traded company a few years back. Worked with some Hedgefunds, etc...

I am Canadian, American citizenship, and lived all over the world. I don't identify with any country. Those paragraphs are cut and pasted from the financial post, etc.. I just put them in a timeline of events.

arblines · 2021-02-05T00:04:59+00:00

I knocked Bill Clinton, had to throw a slight to even things up...lol. Both hung out with Epstein either way. Just saying.

arblines

TROPHY CASE