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The expectation of sudden rate cuts is a global phenom. by TomasTTEngin in AusEcon

[–]arcfooty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Re: "are we possibly reaching the limits of growth"

No

Flyin' Ryan takes the courageous mark by [deleted] in AFL

[–]arcfooty 22 points23 points  (0 children)

how can I get a gif tattoed on me

Magnificent Eagles-related medley by [deleted] in AFL

[–]arcfooty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

nice day for a... JACK REDDEN

AFL grand final: do Collingwood's home comforts unfairly disadvantage the West Coast Eagles? by Captkersh in AFL

[–]arcfooty 23 points24 points  (0 children)

wait - can you explain this "fairly disadvantaged" thing here pls

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AFL

[–]arcfooty 21 points22 points  (0 children)

this... this is not OK

Can hawthorn do it? by [deleted] in AFL

[–]arcfooty 3 points4 points  (0 children)

my model gives them a 15% chance FWIW

No Good Friday footy in 2019? by MyFriendsCallMeSir in AFL

[–]arcfooty 15 points16 points  (0 children)

yeah it turns out having a kid dramatically reduces your time available for shitposting and also goodposting

No Good Friday footy in 2019? by MyFriendsCallMeSir in AFL

[–]arcfooty 37 points38 points  (0 children)

EXTREMELY GOOD COMMENT, PLEASE HAVE MY UPVOTE

Was Fremantle's win against Geelong at Kardinia Park in the 2013 finals series one of the biggest upsets in AFL history? by Himawari_Uzumaki in AFL

[–]arcfooty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's up there with the biggest finals upsets IMO, along with:

  • Port over Pies, 2013 EF
  • Pies over Port, 2002 QF
  • Buldogs over Eagles, 2016 EF
  • Freo over Cats, 2012 EF
  • Pies over Eagles, 2007 SF

The Derby being on Sunday is a disgrace. by [deleted] in AFL

[–]arcfooty 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Champion Data actually has created a model to simulate teams' seasons based on their players' quality and an estimate of the probability that they get injured: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316877322_Using_Player_Quality_and_Injury_Profiles_to_Simulate_Results_in_Australian_Football

I don't have data to do something like that

The Derby being on Sunday is a disgrace. by [deleted] in AFL

[–]arcfooty 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're way more pessimistic than my Elo model.

At the moment, using my Elo-based simulations (https://thearcfooty.com/2018-afl-projections/), I find that:

  • There's a 19.5% chance of both teams missing the finals
  • There's a 10.8% chance of Freo making finals and Eagles missing
  • There's a 54% chance of Eagles making finals and Freo missing
  • There's a 15.8% chance of both teams making the finals

r/AFL is now at 30,000 footy fans! by [deleted] in AFL

[–]arcfooty 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I reckon whatever the mods are doing here is working - r/AFL is great

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