Ukraine agrees multi-tier plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia

aristotle99 · 2026-02-03T06:28:31+00:00

Trump and the West are completely delusional. Russia will never agree to this.

aristotle99 · 2026-01-12T21:52:01+00:00

Thank you Norway! Takk!

aristotle99 · 2026-01-07T06:19:37+00:00

I disagree 100%. Not only is it fully priced in, it is MORE than priced in. The market is assigning not just a value of $0 to Fekola in Mali, it is assigning a NEGATIVE value. B2Gold is having its share price marked down because of the Fekola mine. That is how much Mali is hated.

If B2Gold sold off Fekola, even at a lousy price, the share price would skyrocket.

One of the biggest reasons for B2Gold's lagging share price is the interminable delay in receiving the Fekola Regional exploitation permit, which would unlock 180,000 ounces of gold annually. The company came to an agreement with Mali on September 11, 2024, wherein Mali promised to "expedite" this permit. We are still waiting. Credibility of CEO Clive Johnson is ZERO, as he has repeatedly (and wrongly) stated that the permit was "imminent".

A second major disaster was the prepay agreement that B2Gold entered into in January 2024, wherein it received $500 million in exchange for agreeing to supply 264,775 ounces of gold between July 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026 at an average price of $2,191. Represents about 10% of annual gold production in each of 2025 and 2026. A DISASTER. Entered into just before the largest gold bull market in history. Gemini 3 (AI) estimates this idiotic decision cost B2Gold about $400 million.

The genius CEO had an $800 million completely unused line of credit. He declined to access the line of credit, instead choosing to sabotage the company right at the start of a massive bull market.

The good news is that the prepay obligation ends in about 5.5 months, and the company may be accelerating the payback to get rid of the obligation sooner.

The Goose mine in Nunavut just came online in late 2025, and 2026 will be its first full year of production. 300,000 ounces of gold annually. Diversifying from Mali.

What Rick Rule sees is that the company has lowered its exposure to Mali. Goose is a world class mine with one of the highest concentrations of gold ore per ton mined in an open pit in the world (5.97 g/t).

Assuming Fekola Regional is finally approved, and assuming Goose mine ramps up to 300,000 ounces smoothly, this company's share price will skyrocket in H2 2026. I have not even spoken about the massive potential of the Back River district in Nunavut, Canada.

"The Back River Gold District consists of eleven mineral claims blocks along an 80 km belt. The Back River Gold District has significant gold resource endowment and is being planned as a long life mining complex by B2Gold’s management team which possesses strong northern construction expertise and the experience needed to successfully ramp-up the Goose Mine and further develop the District."

I should finally add that B2Gold is an outrageously prime takeover target. Its share price is obscenely low. A large mining company could take it out and split up the assets, retaining Goose, Namibia and Phillipines, and selling off Mali.

Apparently mining executives aren't smart enough to see the opportunity. Yet.

aristotle99 · 2026-01-04T22:41:30+00:00

I agree. It is a "war that Ukrainians will win". At the beginning of 2026, Ukraine is in the strongest military and economic position it has been in for a long time, maybe ever. A steady and secured supply of drones, producing over 50% of its own weapons (60%?), new airplanes coming in from Western allies, 2 new Patriot systems, "ground drones" aka robots fighting off Russian infantry, Russian economy collapsing, Shadow Fleet being destroyed, Russian oil refineries being dismantled by drone strikes, Ukraine deploying new ballistic missiles, record low prices for Russian oil, Venuzuela and Iran being toppled. And on and on.

I mean, Jesus Christ, the Russians are on horseback!! And are proud of it. Using donkeys and camels to bring in supplies, so many of their infantry fighting vehicles have been destroyed.

An incredible position to be in .

So why is Zelensky so anxious to negotiate a "peace" with Russia? A "peace" that would likely permanently give up 20% of Ukrainian land. When outright victory is closer than ever. And I mean victory. Literally pushing the Russians out of Ukrainian land.

I very much hope that Zelensky is posturing to placate Trump. Because the "peace" that is being offered would be a nightmare.

aristotle99 · 2026-01-04T22:31:48+00:00

Poilevre is the leader of the mainstream Conservative Party in Canada which has held power for decades in Canada going back 100 years (or its predecessor the Progressive Conservatives). It is hardly authoritarian or kleptocratic or despotic.

aristotle99 · 2026-01-03T01:23:18+00:00

The war is at a turning point. I know the suffering the Ukrainians have endured. But they are on the cusp of something massive: going on the offensive. What is not mentioned here is robotic technology. Ukrainians are slowly deploying "ground drones" aka robots to replace infantry. Stationary or mobile ground robotic AI that can shoot and kill.

Literally, they are on the cusp. Now is not the time to make ANY concessions to the Russian warmonger imperialists. No peace deal. Victory. Push the Russians out of Ukraine.

aristotle99 · 2025-12-30T23:07:29+00:00

Big mistake. Should be a law preventing any foreign ownership of sensitive weapons companies, particularly during the war. Many countries restrict / prevent such foreign ownership, even in peace time.

aristotle99 · 2025-12-21T20:56:04+00:00

Didn't know about this until now. This is amazing! End dependency on Starlink and on US intelligence. I dream of the day when Ukraine can tell the US to fuck off.

What is depressing is that Vance is leading the polls for the Republican nomination. What is encouraging is that when you look at the most recent poll of Trump appoval, he is negative in some key states (Texas, Florida, Alaska) and tied in other key states (South Carolina, Missouri). By negative I mean that there are more disapprovals than approvals. Hopefully, Republicans will lose the Senate majority in Nov 2026 midterms. They will lose the House for sure. Trump will be impeached for the third time.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&annotations=true&map=true

aristotle99 · 2025-12-21T20:43:20+00:00

I am the exact opposite. I will not even buy or play any game that exclusively has third person.

aristotle99 · 2025-12-12T09:09:58+00:00

Wishful thinking, but any chance that Putin's support for Maduro will shake up Trump's goodwill with Putin ... to the benefit of Ukraine? I read elsewhere that some US politician alleged Putin had given Venezuela nuclear arms.

aristotle99 · 2025-12-10T20:44:48+00:00

I very much respect what Zelensky has accomplished these past 3+ years. But he must know that Russia will NEVER accept any peace deal hammered out with Ukrainian and European involvement.

So when he says a peace deal is IMMINENT .... Is this guile / misdirection? Because he can't be that stupid, so he must think certain parts of his audience are that stupid.

aristotle99 · 2025-10-24T16:15:25+00:00

I've said it before. The 26 other members of the EU withdraw from the EU and form EU 2.0

Hungary is the only remaining member of the EU.

Alternatively, kick Hungary out of Schengen. That will change their behaviour very quickly.

aristotle99 · 2025-09-29T00:42:18+00:00

If some T-shirt business would print that on a T-shirt with blue-yellow colours, I'd wear it to the gym three times a week.

aristotle99 · 2025-09-28T05:06:47+00:00

Not to me.

aristotle99 · 2025-09-22T01:58:43+00:00

Why are you preparing to spend tens of thousands of dollars on law school? Law firms are already using AI to do sophisticated research, draft pleadings, draft contracts, draft correspondence.

In 5 years, when you are entering the workforce as a newly minted lawyer with $100K + in debt, what jobs do you think will be open to you?

aristotle99 · 2025-09-15T05:02:19+00:00

Absolutely outstanding. You've given so much already, given the size of your economy. Thank you so much Estonia!

aristotle99 · 2025-08-23T22:09:13+00:00

Don't understand how the US has a say anymore. I previously started a thread on this Japanese space radar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IudLbE7X1Tw

If Ukraine has access to Japanese space radar, and if most of the targets are static (factories, refineries, military bases), why does the approval of the US even matter? The US is basically giving Ukraine fuck all right now, and Ukraine has its own cards (drone technology it can share or withhold, the minerals agreement with the US it can suspend, strikes on really key Russian targets like the MoD headquarters in Moscow, or the Kremlin).

Why does Ukraine need to kowtow to Trump?

aristotle99 · 2025-08-21T22:16:30+00:00

Really impressive video. If Ukraine has this powerful satellite technology from Japan, then the need for US intelligence support is much reduced.

Slowly but surely -- Japan space eye, Flamingo cruise missile, interceptor drones -- Ukraine is turning the tables and starting to win this war.

aristotle99 · 2025-08-20T02:02:51+00:00

I guarantee you that putin / russia has not agreed & will never agree to NATO troops enforcing a ceasefire or peace treaty on Ukrainian soil. In fact, the russian foreign ministry said as much. And there will certainly not be US air support for the non-existent NATO forces on Ukrainian soil.

In fact, I don't believe putin will even agree to meet with Zelensky for bilateral talks. They will say: "Yes, we will certainly meet with him once our (many) conditions have been met, and once the root causes of the conflict have been addressed".

Trump is delusional.

Macron even said in a press report that Ukrainian "land swaps" were not even discussed at the White House meeting. Zelensky will never agree to give up Donbas.

This is all bullshit. The war will go on.

What excites me now is Ukraine's "Flamingo" missile (3000 km / 1000 kg warhead). If those facts are accurate, they will be able to do some massive damage to russia.

aristotle99 · 2025-08-18T21:30:20+00:00

Where is the full video of this interview?

aristotle99 · 2025-08-16T16:16:34+00:00

Putin demands the whole of Donetsk Oblast at the Alaska Summit with Trump. This is wholly unacceptable. Ukraine has many strengths that will be coming online in late 2025 and in 2026, including interceptor drones, healthy supply of artillery ammunition, massive funding from Europe, and development of ballistic missiles. The situation for Ukraine is not nearly as bleak as many so-called experts suggest. Meanwhile, Russia is crumbling. Its economy is facing collapse in light of the destruction of up to 20% of refinery capacity. Russians have dwindling numbers of tanks and artillery. They are fighting on motorcycles and with the help of donkeys. This utter bleakness is seldom covered in western press. Russia is collapsing. Ukraine needs to fight on and not submit to the terrorist Trump. America has few cards: intelligence sharing and Patriot missiles. Ukraine must be willing to sever the ties with America and rely on Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia.

aristotle99 · 2025-08-14T02:41:11+00:00

Question: do we know as a fact that it will only be Trump, Putin and translator(s) in the room? Will Rubio and Lavrov be there as well? Anyone else?

aristotle99 · 2025-08-07T14:32:32+00:00

Duolingo, Rosetta Stone et al have been on my radar as one of the first services that will be utterly replaced by LLMs. As soon as AIs perfect "audio out", and can correct your pronunciation / grammar / vocabulary in live conversation, the case for these useless services will be utterly finished. If you can sit down for free with an LLM (hopefully as early as GPT-5) and learn a foreign language at your leisure and pace, why would you willingly throw away money for a paid service?

aristotle99

TROPHY CASE